AFL 2022: With Clayton Oliver signed, Luke Jackson the next goal

Melbourne doesn’t seem to have any idea of where Luke Jackson will be next year. But with Perth teams circling, how will the Demons hold onto their emerging superstar?

Melbourne has handed the longest current deal in the AFL to football’s surest bet.

In football terms Clayton Oliver is bulletproof, a megastar big-game performer who doesn’t miss games and never lets his coach down.

In the era of Josh Kelly’s eight-year deal and Brodie Grundy’s seven-season free agency signing, clubs might be wary of a deal of such preposterous length.

Not Melbourne and certainly not with Oliver.

Consider this: Oliver hasn’t missed a game in six seasons amid a 125-game run, second only to Jack Crisp (177) with his teammate Christian Petracca (97 games) not far away in fourth spot.

Petracca got the Norm Smith Medal and has a deal running to 2029, but Oliver (third in Normie voting behind Petracca and Bayley Fritsch) has the more accomplished resume.

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READ BELOW: OLIVER’S LONG-TERM SIGNING

Clayton Oliver has signed a massive contract extension. Picture: Getty Images

The 24-year-old is roaring towards his fourth Bluey Truscott best-and-fairest medal in seven completed seasons and will surely be a three-time All Australian by the time the season is done.

From the day he was handed two Brownlow Medal votes and a Rising Star nomination on debut for a 22-possession, seven-clearance display he has delivered.

So why the long-term deal?

The better question is why the hell not, given it allows him long-term security for the sacrifice of giving up the free agency status that would have rivals offering insane deals to secure him.

The more intriguing question for Melbourne is what will the massive deals for Oliver and co cost the club?

The short answer is that AFL clubs run on a two-class society full of highly-paid stars and role players who alway feel the squeeze.

As one player manager said of the Demons list after Oliver’s signing on Thursday: “Someone is going to get screwed on that list at some stage”.

Like Geelong before them, Richmond hasn’t been able to hold off the advances of rivals picking at its list.

So it lost Dan Butler, Brandon Ellis, Jack Higgins, Mabior Chol and Callum Coleman-Jones.

Melbourne’s mid-tier will be vulnerable too in coming years, with rivals likely to offer more to those significant role players.

Trent Rivers, James Jordon, Sam Weideman (out in 2023), Jake Bowey, Tom Sparrow and Ed Langdon (out in 2024) will all get squeezed on new deals.

So what does the Oliver mega-deal mean to Luke Jackson at the Demons?

Yet what Melbourne would counter is that from Max Gawn down, their star players always taken a little less to keep the premiership window open.

And if they do lose some role players, they can thrive just like Richmond have because their drafting will just keep unearthing the next Rivers or Sparrow with mid-draft picks.

Gawn signed early in a free agency year and took long-term security over maximum dollars to send a signal to his teammates.

Petracca was handed $900,000 a year rather than seven figures early in the premiership year.

Jack Viney took five seasons on solid but not incredible money, with Bayley Fritsch signing on until 2026 not long after the Grand Final.

Melbourne’s secret weapon has also been great uncertainty around the salary cap these past 18 months.

Fremantle and West Coast have offered superior deals for Luke Jackson, but neither top $1 million a season.

Point of order: why the hell not?

West Coast have cap issues but while $10 million long-term offers have been denied as bunkum by the Dockers, just do what you need to get him to your club.

If that’s $9 million over eight years, does anyone think that won’t be worth it to secure the next Dean Cox?

Oliver evades Carlton superstar Patrick Cripps earlier this season.

Ditto for the Adelaide-based clubs with Kysaiah Pickett, who is out of contract next year.

What would it be worth for Adelaide or Port Adelaide to secure a Cyril Rioli-style star who has only just turned 21 and will be a finals-turning player for a decade if he isn’t already?

So Melbourne will bank on the premiership window and its culture warding off those deals even as it truly has no idea what Jackson is doing as he decides his future.

If he walks home — and he is clearly seriously considering that very option — it will put a dent in the club’s long-term plans.

The late Dean Bailey once said of Melbourne’s talent that they wouldn’t just have a premiership opportunity, it would be a “bi-fold window” of beckoning success.

“When they do win (a flag) it will be fantastic, not only for the competition but for everyone who keeps talking about 1964 (last premiership),” the Demons coach said.

It didn’t happen back in 2012 but with the bulk of this list locked in long-term and its midfield pillars extended to 2029 and 2030 list boss Tim Lamb has set up the club perfectly for the dynasty that surely awaits.

Luke Jackson has some big decisions to make. Picture: Getty Images

Dees lock in Oliver but what next with Jackson?

Melbourne says it had no hesitation in handing Clayton Oliver a seven-season deal as the Demons cling to hope they will still retain Luke Jackson despite a late-season contract stalemate.

Brilliant midfield star Oliver on Thursday signed a seven-year contract that will see him forgoing his free agency rights with the Demons at the end of 2023.

The deal will be worth over $1 million per season when rises in the collective bargaining agreement are factored in and is not back-ended to the latter years of the deal.

Oliver was happy to sign the deal to give him certainty and financial security.

The 24-year-old now has eight more seasons on his deal at a time when long-term contracts including Brodie Grundy’s seven-season $7 million extension have come under fire.

No other player across the competition has a deal that runs that long, with teammate Christian Petracca and GWS midfielder Josh Kelly re-signing last year on deals through to 2029.

But Oliver is clearly worth it as a dynamic 24-year-old midfield machine who has already won three Melbourne best-and-fairest awards, been selected twice in the All Australian side and handed the coaches association’s 2021 best player award.

Melbourne football boss Alan Richardson said on Thursday the certainty the deal gave the Demons in their list build meant it was worth the potential risk.

“He wanted to be with us. Free agency comes up next year, you could argue he is the strongest performing player at age 24 in the competition.

The Demons are confident Angus Brayshaw wants to stay despite him hitting free agency.

The AFL coaches‘ votes and Brownlow Medal would say that, he would be favoured to be in front in our best and fairest at the moment. So he’s a tremendously consistent player.

“We don’t see that falling away at all. We think he’s going to be a highly consistent performer for a long time. We are comfortable doing it with great players like Christian and Jack Viney and now Clayton Oliver. We are comfortable doing that.”

The Demons are confident Angus Brayshaw wants to stay despite him hitting free agency but he continues to hold off talks.

Jackson’s manager is in Melbourne from Perth and is set to meet with Demons list boss Tim Lamb but still does not have a decision on the No. 3 overall draft pick despite the premiers making an offer.

The Herald Sun reported last week both West Coast and Fremantle have tabled offers for Luke Jackson as he seriously considers a return home and the Demons can only hope he is keen to stay.

“We would love Jacko and his management group to ring us up tomorrow and tell us, “I am in” but if it takes a bit more time that’s the right thing to do,” Richardson told SEN.

“We are still pretty confident he’s going to stay but if it takes more time that’s OK.

“It makes it a little bit more challenging (if he waits until September) but we plan for every scenario. We will keep working with him and his management group. We are comfortable with where it sits right now.”

Originally published as AFL 2022: With Clayton Oliver signed, Luke Jackson the next goal