AFL 2023: Mick McGuane goes inside the coaches’ box of Round 10’s biggest games
AFL analyst Mick McGuane didn’t write the Tigers off during their slump and their recent form suggests that was a good bet, which could spell trouble for the Bombers.
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This month is “the grind” period. And as the bye weekends loom, the whips are cracking as some teams are looking to gather some much needed momentum.
Three vital games loom large this weekend with some of the biggest teams in the competition facing make-or-break scenarios.
Herald Sun analyst Mick McGuane goes into the coaches’ box for the three biggest games of the round – where they’ll be won, where they’ll be lost and who’s in the firing line to perform.
YARTAPUULTI (PORT ADELAIDE) v NARRM (MELBOURNE)
TOE TO TOE
It’s the age-old classic – the best attack against the best defence.
Melbourne’s strength is their turnover game. It’s their primary scoring source and it’s not dissimilar to their 2021 premiership.
Their defensive system is in sync due to the pressure they’re applying in the forward half.
The Demons defenders are aggressively coming in behind their attack and setting up the ground to ensure there is no “easy outs” from the forwardline. They’re scoring from turnovers at an average of 66 points per game — the most in the competition.
It’s a sustainable brand and a premiership model.
Port Adelaide are fourth on the ladder and not receiving the recognition they deserve.
Their defensive profile is their greatest asset and are such a hard team to play against.
Trust and synchronicity among defenders means reliability – led by Aliir Aliir who’s reading it beautifully.
CHRISTIAN’S COOKING
He’s trained fully and says he’s fine, but how healthy is Christian Petracca?
On the road against an in-form opponent, it’s not a case of want — it’s need for the Demons. His ankle might be sore, but he’s shown he has the capacity to play with small hurts, and he has to in this game.
He gets plenty of the ball – averaging 29.3 touches – but it’s about how he wins it and what he does next. His score assists and score involvements are off the charts.
His menacing form means Ken Hinkley has to have a plan.
Could it be Jason Horne-Francis spending time against him? What a match-up that would be. Two explosive bulls going head-to-head.
There’s Clayton Oliver and Jack Viney to think about but rest assured Zak Butters, Ollie Wines and Connor Rozee will be up for the challenge.
It’s a serious test for the Power on-ballers, but I’m loving the growth and evolution of their engine room.
RUCK DILEMMA
Does Ken Hinkley recall his most aggressive and experienced ruckman in Scott Lycett or does he stick with Brynn Teakle to have a crack at the best ruck combination in the game?
Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy could be the difference at game’s end. Their output must be minimised if Port are any chance to win their 7th game on the trot.
I’m not convinced that Hinkley is 100 per cent sure who their top ruck is. Teakle has rucked the last month in Lycett’s absence but I’d be going with the strength and experience of the latter.
It has to be an aggressive approach both at ruckwork and when the ball is in motion — whoever it is.
Jeremy Finlayson will be used as relief and his mobility around the ground must be used. He needs to force Gawn and Grundy to defend by pushing hard forward when Port have the ball to be another marking and goal kicking option.
If Melbourne’s big men play at their best it might be a long night for Port.
KEY SPARKS
Port’s next generation midfielders have the keys to their engine room.
Rozee, tick.
Horne-Francis, tick.
Butters, tick.
All three are in rock solid form. They’re not relying on the old-stagers in Wines and Travis Boak anymore to win games of footy.
Butters had 32 touches last week and 12 score involvements. He’ll need to reproduce that performance against his likely match up in Petracca or will Horne-Francis be given that challenge.
I’d be getting Wines and Willem Drew to control Oliver at stoppages which will allow Rozee to go head-to-head with Viney and making it a priority to become a multiple goal kicking midfielder by challenging his reluctance to transition defensively.
ESSENDON v RICHMOND
REALITY OVER ROMANCE
Sorry, Walla.
It pains me to say this – particularly given the emotion and significance of the Dreamtime at the ‘G – but should Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti be out there this week?
I’m not entirely sold he deserves his spot. He’ll be selected but I think it’s a weak decision.
Selection integrity is paramount, irrespective of occasion or who the player is.
He had only eight disposals last week and kicked one goal.
He’s nowhere near his best and if Brad Scott and his fellow selectors are fair dinkum, he shouldn’t play on this special night. The standards you walk past are the standards you accept.
He is just not fit enough.
The return of the Tigers’ counter-attack game means speed in defensive actions in Essendon’s front half is super important.
I love the emotional attachment of the proud Tiwi man being there – but the good of the team has to come first.
If he plays, there’s three Tigers that will be licking their lips – Daniel Rioli, Jayden Short and Liam Baker, who is in All-Australian form.
They’ll be looking to win the ball and then counter at speed and go on long searching runs to expose McDonald-Tipungwuti’s lack of defensive intent.
Head over heart, Brad. I wouldn’t be putting him up to fail.
LEAKY DONS
They’re leaking like a sieve out at Tullamarine.
In the last month, which has coincidentally morphed into their last four straight losses, they’re giving up 100 points per game.
That puts them in the bottom handful in the competition and is simply damning.
For opposition points from turnovers, they’re 13th.
The opposition is scoring 56.8 points per game – they’re not defending their turnovers.
Add in that they’re dead last for opposition defensive 50 to inside 50 transition percentage and this is why selection integrity as to which small pressure forwards play is paramount.
If they produce the same defensive output, either through a breakdown in team defence or a lack of pressure at the ball, they’ll be letting Richmond go from defence to attack one in every three times.
For pressure, they’re 17th in the competition. It’s a real concern and Richmond could expose them horribly.
Complete buy-in from a defensive standpoint is a must, or the Tigers will win easily.
TURNOVER TIGERS
They’re back — the Tigers of old.
A lot of people had written them off, but I certainly hadn’t.
Throwing the magnet board around has worked for Damien Hardwick, and has resulted in a revitalised and snarling playing group.
In their halcyon premiership years, turnover game was at the forefront and – even without Tom Lynch – it’s back in business.
In Rounds 1-7, points from turnover on average was 39.6. Tom Lynch played four of those games. In Rounds 8 and 9, without Lynch, they’re averaging 63 points per game.
Their territory game has returned and they’re playing a trustworthy, more direct brand.
Richmond’s forward half pressure has returned and as a consequence their defensive structure looks rock solid again. This is helping the team to get intercepts and go back inside 50 to score.
If Essendon can’t handle the heat and exit defensive 50 effectively, Richmond will cash in on those turnovers and hurt them on the scoreboard.
KEY SPARKS
Shai Bolton’s last month has seen him spend 70 per cent of his time as a midfielder.
His disposals have averaged 22.5 – with an average of 11.8 of those being contested.
His go-forward mentality sets him apart. Clearances, score involvements and uncontested marks have all gone up a notch. He’s dynamic, exciting to watch and it’s great to see him be given the faith by Hardwick to spend nearly three-quarters of his game time in the middle.
He changes it up in there and brings X-factor and electricity.
For Essendon, Nic Martin has been unsung.
His disposals, uncontested possessions and ground ball gets and hunt for the footy are all above average, but what is understated has been his ability to create and assist in scoring – averaging 1.3 score assists per game.
Everyone gravitates to the big names of Dylan Shiel, Darcy Parish, Zach Merrett and Jake Stringer.
But not much gets said about the underbelly of the group and Martin is one.
Who gets the likes of Dustin Martin and Jake Stringer when they spit forward after contesting centre bounces?
They play similar roles – attend centre bounce and once the ball is in play, look to drift forward and hopefully catch their opposing defenders unaware.
It’s all about open communication and awareness when they switch.
I’d be giving Stringer to Dylan Grimes when he goes to attack and Mason Redman must pick up Martin when he becomes a permanent forward.
CARLTON v COLLINGWOOD
GET HUNTING, BLUES
With the microscope they’ve been under, we’ll see a ruthless and aggressive Carlton.
In my experience, form, ladder position and venue all become irrelevant when it comes to this rivalry.
Michael Voss has to create an environment to get his players to be hunters this week – not the hunted.
As good as Patrick Cripps is at stoppages, he is always a sitting duck. At times, he thinks he has to do it all.
So Vossy, change his mindset and give him a job on Tom Mitchell. Challenge him to be selfless and dilute Mitchell’s influence at centre bounce and stoppages.
He has clearly changed Collingwood’s stoppage game and has added great value to the Pies contested ball wins. So why not take out a strength from Collingwood’s midfield?
Why not be adventurous?
Sam Walsh and Matthew Cottrell can run a hot/cold tag on Nick Daicos.
Cottrell has great speed and discipline when given a task so give him a challenge.
To continue to work Daicos over, give Carlton’s best two-way runner in Walsh the job – he’s got the smarts and running power to run with him, but also off him to win his own ball and hit the scoreboard.
It’s a mental shift that can help the players’ psychology and be used as a competitive starting point.
Vossy, with four losses from your last four games and your finals chances slipping away it’s time to get aggressive and innovative.
Don’t die with the music in you. Change things up. Your group needs to be invigorated.
BIG NAMES NEED BIG GAMES
Last week’s first half against the Dogs was deplorable.
That’s putting it kindly.
For a team that’s got two Coleman medallists – Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay – the reigning Brownlow medallist in Cripps, whose form is a shadow of what it was last year, two No. 1 draft picks in Jacob Weitering and Sam Walsh, an All-Australian in Adam Saad and the consistency of Sam Docherty, to produce what they did in the first 60 minutes against the Dogs was complete rubbish.
I hope Voss delivered some home truths.
Surely he did? And if he didn’t, is it because the playing group can’t handle a reality check?
If he didn’t, he is not true to himself and his playing group.
I just hope this Carlton playing group can handle some stern words and then respond in the best possible way.
Sunday’s game is more about Carlton than it is Collingwood.
MANIC MAGPIES
There’s a lot of talk about Daicos but Jordan De Goey is firing under the radar with consistency and a serious ability to impact.
Collingwood’s pressure and tackling is elite and as a collective they will have a target on every Carlton player that has possession of the ball.
Sit back and watch them swarm.
How will Carlton handle Collingwood’s heat?
Carlton is not a great kicking team and efficiency is poor.
Blake Acres is one who has become a turnover king, and midfielders like Walsh, Cripps and Matthew Kennedy have been lacking purpose and precision by foot when going forward.
If there’s any team they need to improve their ball security, it’s against Collingwood. If they don’t handle that pressure, Collingwood – which has had a points from turnovers differential at -7.1 per game – could receive a healthy spike in regards to this important phase of the game.
On the other hand, Carlton’s scores from turnovers can be great or grim – there’s no in between. When they win, their turnover game is sound but when they lose their turnover game looks in tatters.
KEY SPARKS
Carlton’s midfielders need to be at their competitive and combative best at stoppages. Winning territory out of stoppages will be crucial against the Pies.
If Collingwood dominate stoppages and get good territory from clearance wins, they will dominate field position and have the game on their terms. Something that Carlton will struggle with.
Carlton can’t rely on winning the ball back of centre and expect to go from back to front with their ball movement and score to win this game of footy.
They are an ordinary kicking team and on turnovers their midfield are too slow to cover the ground in defensive transition.
Voss must put Adam Cerra in the centre to complement Cripps and George Hewett and throw them the challenge to set the scene.
Cripps and McKay need to lift. Two big names – on big contracts.
The skipper has looked lethargic the last two weeks and on defensive transition he has been exposed against the likes of Josh Dunkley and Bailey Smith. He needs an attitudinal shift and must completely buy into defensive intent.
It’s time for McKay to stand up and trust his ability.
No point sugar-coating it. He’s sapping the energy of his teammates that work so hard to get it to him and then he lets them down by missing shots at goal that count.
For Carlton, it’s time to step up and deliver and silence their critics against their arch rival.
For Collingwood, putting a dagger in the heart of the Blues and potentially ruining their season mid-May would please many.
Bring it on. The competitive juices are already flowing.
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