AFL 2022: How Port Adelaide’s inaccuracy in front of goal late has finals ambitions in serious danger
It doesn’t make for very good reading if you are a Port Adelaide fan. Unbeatable last season in tight contests, this year the Power have fallen off the perch because of two crucial areas.
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Port Adelaide slumping from a clutch team to one of the AFL’s worst finishers has put its finals chances in peril.
After being 5-0 in games decided by 12 points or fewer last year, on its way to a second straight preliminary final, the Power is 2-5 in such contests in 2022.
A lack of firepower and wayward goalkicking have proven costly late in matches.
Champion Data statistics reveal the club, which is 12th on the ladder with a 7-8 record, ranks:
■ 17th in the AFL this season for points scored in fourth quarters (averaging 16.4), down from sixth last year and 10th in 2020
■ 15th for points scored from the 20-minute mark of fourth quarters (averaging 6.2)
■ Last for accuracy in final terms (36.7 per cent), down from 10th in 2021 and ninth in 2020
Port Adelaide’s potency and conversion have dropped significantly after three-quarter time this year.
Across the opening three terms, the club ranks 11th in average points for (60.2) and ninth for goalkicking accuracy (48.3 per cent).
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Finishing strongly was not an issue in Sunday’s eight-point loss to Fremantle in Perth, as the Power fought back from seven goals down to outscore the hosts 5.3 to 1.1 in the last quarter.
But shoddy shots were a factor late, even though the Power booted 14.7.
This time, the misses came from two unlikely players.
One of the AFL’s most clutch stars of this generation, Robbie Gray, and 2022 deadeye Todd Marshall, botched straightforward kicks from about 25m, in the final three minutes.
Port Adelaide trailed by nine points at the time.
“We definitely had our chances,” Power midfielder Willem Drew said.
“I think Robbie and Toddy are both our best kicks had their opportunities, and we’d give them the ball every time.
“That happens sometimes in footy and some things you can’t control.”
Drew said not taking some chances in tight contests might be a reason behind the club’s record in them.
“Last year we won most of those close games but this year we’re on the other end of it,” he said.
“So finding ways to claw back that lead (is a focus) and we just need little things to go our way to get the win.”
Power assistant Brett Montgomery said Gray and Marshall might have rushed a little on Sunday, knowing even if they kicked truly, it would be difficult to score another major if more time was taken.
“Maybe that might have crept in but both had routines that are both sound that they were able to follow,” Montgomery said.
WHO ARE MOST WAYWARD IN THE FOURTH?
Four of the six Port Adelaide players to have had at least seven fourth-quarter shots in 2022 have been woefully off target.
Brownlow medallist Ollie Wines and four-time All-Australian Gray have nailed just 25 per cent (two of eight) of theirs.
Workhorse Sam Powell-Pepper (27.3 per cent, three goals from 11 attempts) and emerging forward Mitch Georgiades (28.6 per cent, two of seven) have not fared much better.
Unsurprisingly, Marshall has been the Power’s straightest shooter, slotting 60 per cent of his attempts (six out of 10), while veteran Steven Motlop has converted 55.6 per cent (five from nine).
Marshall has booted 32.9 overall, making him the AFL’s most accurate goalkicker with at least 25 majors.
With 14.20, Georgiades has had goalkicking problems for much of the campaign.
Drew was unsure of the main reasons behind the club’s late-game inaccuracy.
“It comes down to us practising our routines and practising our goalkicking, and that’s something that we’re doing,” he said.
“Sometimes that happens in footy.”
SCORING BREAKDOWN
Port Adelaide’s best quarter this season has been its third.
The Power has won nine of them and ranks seventh in average points scored for the term (22.9).
But Port Adelaide’s scoring dips by an average of 6.5 points from that quarter to the fourth.
The club has gone from registering 21.1 points per game in last terms in 2021 to 16.4 in 2022.
It has won seven of 15 fourth quarters this year.
Twice the Power stormed home and fell short (Carlton, Fremantle), twice were against cellar-dwellers (West Coast, North Melbourne), one was when the contest was over and the opposition might have eased off (Melbourne), one was a grind in tough conditions (St Kilda in Cairns) and the other was a goalless finish (Essendon).
Scoring in general has been difficult for the Power.
It has registered a meagre 1149 points this year, which ranks 15th, ahead of only the ladder’s bottom three: Essendon (1138), West Coast (954) and North Melbourne (814).
Even Adelaide (1152) has scored more than the Power in 2022.
The Power has dropped off significantly since last campaign — from averaging 85.6 points (sixth-best in the AFL) to 76.6.
Injuries have been a reason behind Port Adelaide’s scoring woes.
Spearhead Charlie Dixon has played just five games, not starting until round 11.
Goalsneak Orazio Fantasia’s only match has been as an unused medical substitute.
Gray spent the first part of the season playing through a knee problem.
Scott Lycett’s absence since round 4 has led to ex-GWS forward Jeremy Finlayson becoming the main ruckman.
Zak Butters and Connor Rozee have also spent less time near goals and more in the midfield.
Second-year tough nut Lachie Jones is a makeshift forward.
But Port Adelaide also dealt with plenty of injuries last season and still finished second after the minor round.
Its potency problem late in games is not because of a lack of forward entries.
The Power ranks sixth in the competition for fourth-quarter inside 50s this year, averaging 13.7.
Last season, it was ninth with 12.7 per game.
There is rarely one obvious answer behind AFL trends.
The types of shots being taken, personnel, forward structure, mindset, feeling the pressure more than other teams, fitness, players’ routines or a combination of those reasons are all possibilities.
But they are things all clubs deal with.
Whatever the reasons at Alberton, Port Adelaide’s goalkicking and scoring power are getting worse over the course of a match.
And the Power’s fourth-quarter scoring and accuracy rank in the AFL’s bottom two.
Drew said the club was working on scoring more and hoped to improve in that area during the remainder of the season.
“(Player availability) does play into it a little bit,” he said.
“I think this week we’ll have another couple of people coming back in so that’ll be good for the team and hopefully we can continue on that scoring.”
MOMENTS THAT MATTERED
Port Adelaide has missed opportunities late in each of its five narrow losses.
Three of those defeats were in the opening five rounds, as the Power started 0-5, making finals a tough ask from the outset.
Here is a look back on the club’s close losses this year:
■ Round 1 (Brisbane, 11 points, Gabba): The Power coughed up a four-goal lead it held late in the third term and was outscored 1.2 to 5.4 in the last. Injuries to Xavier Duursma and Trent McKenzie did not help.
■ Round 3 (Adelaide, four points, Adelaide Oval): Ken Hinkley’s side could not hold onto a three-goal advantage early in the fourth quarter. It was outscored 2.2 to 5.1 in the last term, as the Crows kicked the final four goals of the game, headlined by Jordan Dawson heroics after the siren. Port Adelaide star Travis Boak missed a shot from 40m with 100 seconds remaining that, had he kicked truly, would have put his side seven points ahead. Sam Mayes missed an earlier goal in the fourth and also gave away a free kick with five seconds remaining that led to Dawson’s game-winner.
■ Round 5 (Carlton, three points, MCG): After Port Adelaide had come from 50 points down before half-time to get within four points, Karl Amon took a mark about 55m from goal with a minute left. The wingman took almost 25 seconds to take his kick, was off target and the ball was rushed through for a behind.
■ Round 13 (Richmond, 12 points, MCG): The Power led by five points one minute into the last quarter, then conceded the next two goals – the second of which came as Tom Jonas and Zak Butters were on the turf after clashing heads. A slick Connor Rozee major cut the Tigers’ advantage back to three points with five minutes left, only for Liam Baker to respond with one of his own.
■ Round 16 (Fremantle, eight points, Perth): Port Adelaide left itself a lot of work to do when it fell behind by 40 points late in the third term but it still might have gone on to win if Gray or Marshall was able to convert.
The losses to Carlton and the Dockers boiled down to what happened earlier in the game, more so than the last quarters, but the Power still had chances to snatch victories.
Port Adelaide let sizeable, late leads slip away too easily against Brisbane and Adelaide.
The Richmond match was neck-and-neck before the Tigers had the better of the last term.
Power assistant Brett Montgomery described the club as being “close-ish” in its four away defeats, which he said were against some of the best sides.
“Tough draw, tough competition,” Montgomery said.
“It just shows you if you’re going to go all the way, you’ve got to jag you, two, maybe three of those in a great season.”
Port Adelaide’s two wins in games decided by two goals or fewer have been against St Kilda in Cairns and Gold Coast at home.
The Saints triumph was a slog in greasy conditions and it was a behind from Gray via a kick on the boundary with 30 seconds left that put the Power ahead.
Desperate defending, including a lunging Powell-Pepper tackle that won holding the ball on Suns star Touk Miller, got Port Adelaide across the line against Gold Coast.
If the Power had a 4-3 record in those tight ones this season, rather than 2-5, it would be in the thick of finals contention, rather than with its September chances on the ropes.
Right now, it is two wins and 14 per cent behind eighth-placed Sydney with seven rounds remaining.
Going 5-0 in close matches last season was vital to Port Adelaide not only making the finals but the top four.
Drew said when the club did its post-season review, it would reflect on this year as a whole, not certain games.
“We haven’t done ourselves any favours with the way we’ve started the season,” he said.
“We’ve been building and we’re going to fight (for finals).”
Power out? How Port should attack run home
By Simeon Thomas-Wilson
Two games out of the eight, and a fair bit behind on percentage.
Even the most optimistic Port Adelaide fan would concede that with seven games to go, and an extremely tough draw for the run home, that it is very unlikely that the Power can make finals.
So what should the be the focus for the Power for the rest of the season?
MORE OF THE SAME?
Despite the nine-point loss to Fremantle delivering a dagger blow to the Power’s finals hopes, the messages out of those at Alberton is that nothing will change from their perspective.
Midfield coach Brett Montgomery said that the Power still was having a narrow focus despite the loss.
“We’ve had to sort of work off a week-to-week basis after the 0-5 start anyway, so I don’t think too much has changed,” he said.
“For this group it is all about wins.”
This is even despite conceding that making finals is an uphill battle.
“I think the group and overall club has felt that for some time but I guess my response is that we aren’t doing too much different in terms of our planning, preparation and overall hunt to win each week,” he said.
Power young gun Zak Butters said the Power’s focus would be “just like we have been approaching it for the last month”.
“We just have to keep trying to win, I’m pretty confident if we keep doing what we are doing we will give ourselves a good chance,” he said on SEN SA.
BLOOD THE KIDS?
He’s the second lightest player in the AFL but Jase Burgoyne impressed on his debut for the Power against Fremantle.
The son of 2004 premiership player Peter had 17 disposals and five marks against in the Power’s thrilling loss to the Dockers, and won several one-on-one contests.
Few would have predicted that Burgoyne would make his AFL debut in his first year at Alberton but he showed enough to suggest he should get at least a couple of games for the Power in the run home.
Should some of the other Power youngsters join him in the side.
Montgomery said he was “confident” that Taj Schofield could be the next to break into the side, and said the Power could look at giving some younger players a chance.
“It’s all a possibility,” he said.
“Jase played on the weekend. Schofield was an emergency and has been for a couple of weeks, (Lachie) Jones has been at the other end of the ground, (Jackson) Mead is in the team.
“I’m not sure we have stuck with just an old tried and true line-up, I think we have been quite innovative.
“But maybe we have another step to take.”
There will be Port fans who want some of the club’s youngsters to play in the run home.
But it will be a balancing act for the Power.
No. 12 draft pick Josh Sinn has been battling with injuries this year after playing a couple of AFL games, while a debut for talls Dante Vistentini and Ollie Lord would be throwing them in at the deep end.
Ruckman Sam Hayes has played seven games after patiently waiting for a chance, but the Power has decided to go with forwards Jeremy Finlayson and Charlie Dixon as their ruck combo because of Hayes’ inability to cover the ground.
Marty Frederick has been in and out of the side, and hasn’t been able to look comfortable at AFL level this year.
Dylan Williams – who made his AFL debut last year – had 25 disposals in the Magpies 126-point loss to North Adelaide, but had been going through a lean spell in the SANFL for the three games prior.
Despite the thrashing at the hands of the Roosters, Montgomery said he was confident the Power had players ready to break into the AFL team.
“We have some youth in the team at the moment, we have some around the fringes at the moment,” he said.
FURTHER DEVELOP THE MIDFIELD
Along with the emergence of Todd Marshall, Connor Rozee’s transformation into a damaging midfielder will be a positive for the Power this year.
Zak Butters could also be about to fully blossom around the ball, after being again hit by injuries this year.
Going into this season the Power’s midfield was identified as an area where Ken Hinkley’s side had to improve.
Rozee has shone since being flicked into the middle for the second half of the Round 5 clash against Carlton.
Can the Power develop their on-ball brigade further?
“We are auditing that all the time,” Montgomery said.
“There are a lot of moves and shifts that happen from week to week and there is a lot of moves and shifts that happen within four quarters.
“The midfield is evolving, we’ve seen that. Rozee has a been a big part, Zak has gone in there, Willem Drew has taken a bigger leadership role in there.
“It isn’t like we’ve had the same midfield for the past three years.”
Rozee, Butters, Drew and Reigning Brownlow Medallist Ollie Wines are becoming the Power midfield, with Travis Boak playing more of a half-forward role at times.
But can the Power increasingly blood a Mead, as well as a Xavier Duursma and Miles Bergman – who have had down years – in their midfield as they seek to improve that area of the ground.
Will important star return after SANFL no-show?
Scott Lycett not playing any minutes in the SANFL won’t make a potential return to Port Adelaide’s side to take on GWS “impossible”, Power assistant coach Brett Montgomery says.
Lycett was named in Port’s state league side but the Power’s No. 1 ruckman did not take to the field in the Magpies’ 126-point thumping at the hands of North Adelaide.
Despite Power coach Ken Hinkley believing key forward Charlie Dixon could be an elite ruckman, Fremantle’s Sean Darcy was able to get on top of Port’s ruck duo of Dixon and Jeremy Finlayson for most of the Dockers eight-point win as they survived a big comeback from Port.
Montgomery said Lycett could be in the mix to take on GWS on Saturday despite no football since Round 4 against Melbourne – when he dislocated his shoulder.
But he said the Power were extremely happy with how Dixon and Finlayson had stepped up.
“The story around Scott Lycett is that he didn’t get any minutes on the weekend so that makes it difficult but it doesn’t make it impossible,” he said.
“But I think if you were asking him today he would say he is available and we just have to wait and see what we get out of him during the week.
“I think the ruck situation fascinates a lot of people, what Jeremy and Charlie have been able to do particularly when the ball hits the floor, has been remarkable.
“The sheer weight of hit-outs at times in games can be an issue for us.
“Darcy if he is not the best ruckman in the league then he is definitely on the podium, he went and showed that again with 10 clearances.
“I think if you look at the shared minutes you will find that they weren’t too far away from being even. Whether he was in there at crucial times or critical times for momentum hits maybe that is something we could have a look but sometimes those shifts are not as easy to make in terms of workload and rotations.
“I’m not here to make excuses but I think they both have moments where they were beaten but I think they had moments where they also took it up to Darcy as well.”
The loss to Fremantle adds to losses to Richmond and Carlton by 12 and three-points at the MCG and Brisbane by 11-points.
“You probably have named four of the best teams all away from home and we were close-ish,” Montgomery said.
“So tough draw, tough competition as well and it just shows you if you are going to go all the way you need to jag one, two or three of those to have a great season.”
The loss to Fremantle leaves the Power two wins and percentage out of the eight with seven games to go.
Montgomery said he believed the Power’s 12th placed position on the ladder wasn’t a true reflection of where they were.
“If we are probably being fair we are two wins away from what I think will be our genuine position on the ladder and what our season would reflect, not too much more than that though,” he said.
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