Mick McGuane: The keys to success for every finals contender
How can opposition teams get on top of the ladder leaders? Mick McGuane has the stats that matter when it comes to stopping the Cats juggernaut.
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With September just around the corner, Champion Data has crunched the numbers to determine what the keys to success are for every finals contender.
Footy analyst Mick McGuane has taken a close look over the data and has put the acid on the teams and players who need to lift if they are to have any chance of holding up the 2022 premiership cup.
GEELONG
Score over 80 points: 15-0
Score under 80 points: 1-4
The Cats are both an offensive and defensive juggernaut and are only giving opposition teams a chance of winning when they are held to low scores.
They generally bring pure ball movement in attack, with competent kicking skills and decision making.
The improved attacking flare this year has been built on the foundation of a rock-solid defence, remarkably held up by a 21-year-old Sam de Koning alongside the ever-reliable Tom Stewart.
In attack, the Cats have enormous firepower through Twin Towers Jeremy Cameron (56 goals) and Tom Hawkins (54 goals) and smalls Tyson Stengle (39 goals) and Brad Close (20 goals).
Keeping Cameron and Hawkins healthy heading into finals will be key to their premiership hopes.
It is not just the forwards who can hit the scoreboard, either.
Of 35 players that Geelong has used this year, 27 have kicked at least one goal.
When the Cats win possession, they are the best team in the competition at turning offensive chains into scores.
Opposition sides must bring manic heat in defence and be methodical and decisive in offence, because if you give the ball back to Geelong on turnover they will punish you on fast break.
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COLLINGWOOD
Opposition score over 87 points: 2-5
Opposition score under 87 points: 13-0
A lot has been said about first-year coach Craig McRae, but the defensive system that Collingwood has in place was largely developed by Nathan Buckley over the past four or five years.
The Magpies’ mantra going into finals has to be based around bringing a strong team defence and high pressure at the source.
Without that, they will leak goals and won’t be able to hurt teams going the other way with their counter-attack.
What McRae has done is add the layer to Collingwood’s game of going quick and forward with the ball rather than defending with it or going slow.
And why wouldn’t you go fast when you have aerial threats in attack like Brody Mihocek and Jamie Elliott, as well as the dangerous match up that is Jordan de Goey?
Darcy Moore, Brayden Maynard and Jeremy Howe continue to be pillars of the strong defence, while Isaac Quayor is understated with his intercept ability and Nick Daicos has been a weapon at winning the ball back between the arcs.
MELBOURNE
Win inside-50 count: 12-1
Lose inside-50 count: 2-5
The Demons’ game is built on strong contest wins.
Without that, you don’t get territory.
However, the add-on to their territory game — which has been such a factor in their results this year — is to be efficient when going inside-50.
This is an area that Melbourne must master before finals.
Against Collingwood last week, the Demons had 23 more inside-50s in the first half but were only ahead on the scoreboard by 17 points at the main break.
That’s puzzling and morale sapping.
When you have a statistical advantage like that, you must capitalise more.
The vision of Melbourne players to see teammates in better spots was disgraceful last week and allowed the Magpies to stay in the game.
The Demons need to stop the selfishness, because there seems to be survival instincts creeping in among some members of the playing group at the moment.
Better team care is required in offence so that they can punish the opposition when the opportunity presents, especially when they dominate territory.
SYDNEY
Win contested possession count: 10-1
Lose contested possession count: 4-5
Contest has long been what the Swans’ game has been built around.
However, they have not got enough credit — particularly over the second half of the season — for being the best pressure team in the competition.
In a radio interview this week, midfielder Luke Parker spoke about those two key elements — contest and pressure — being what has driven the side this year.
Parker himself has led the way, averaging a team-high 11.6 contested possessions a game and ranking third at the club for average pressure points.
He is one player who sets the tone around the footy.
Sydney’s contest work was inconsistent in the early part of the year and there is no doubt it has been addressed, which has helped deliver the results in the run home.
But another challenge comes this week against Collingwood, who are a renowned pressure team and love the contest.
There is a high premium on contested ball wins in finals, which bodes well for Sydney’s September hopes if they can keep up their consistent performances in this area.
BRISBANE
Brisbane scores over 100 points: 9-1
Opposition score over 100 points: 0-4
When the Lions lack connection and synergy defensively they are an easy team to play against.
Allowing opposition teams on four occasions to score over 100 points — all of which have resulted in losses — is something that needs serious attention from coach Chris Fagan.
That tells you that they must improve their team defence and pressure around the ground.
You can have the best back-six in the competition but it is still hard to defend opposition ball movement without pressure on the ball carrier up the ground.
Brisbane must put a greater emphasis on its defensive actions than they currently do if they want to be a serious finals threat this year.
Offensively, the Lions’ game is in good order and they are the No. 1 team at moving the ball from their defensive 50 to generating inside-50s.
They have a multi-positional and diverse forward line, with no shortage of options to hit the scoreboard on the back of their slick ball movement.
Eric Hipwood, Joe Daniher and Charlie Cameron can all play as a high forwards or be isolated deep in the goalsquare.
Lincoln McCarthy can challenge any opposition defence as a medium-sized marking forward and Cam Rayner can be a bullocking forward that can impact the scoreboard.
FREMANTLE
Over 90 uncontested marks: 9-0
Score under 65 points: 0-7
Fremantle’s profile here reminds me of West Coast in 2018, when we spoke about the Eagles winning a lot of games when they recorded over 90 uncontested marks.
But for the Dockers, the uncontested marking has gone too far and has become their Achilles heel because the balance with their ball movement has been lost.
They have often been too conservative and unimaginative with ball in hand.
Slow, predictable ball movement only plays into the hands of opposition sides, who can then more easily hold you to low scores.
Scoring 65 points in a game is not going to win you many premierships in this day and age.
Fremantle’s ball movement was better last week against the Western Bulldogs after their game plan was revisited internally and they need to show more creativity like that if they are want to impact in September.
Sam Switkowski’s imminent return from a back injury should help keep the scoreboard ticking over.
He is not only a goalkicking, high-pressure forward but he also averages the equal-most score assists of any player in the competition with two per game.
There are few more important players than Switkowski in the Fremantle line-up.
CARLTON
Win contested possessions by +10: 9-1
Win clearances by +5: 9-1
The Blues provided great hope for their supporters on the back of great transformation at the start of the year under new coach Michael Voss.
They were a brutal and combative stoppage team in the early part of the season, but look to be limping to the line at the moment.
They are now missing Patrick Cripps, George Hewett and Matt Kennedy through injury and suspension, which won’t help their contested possession and clearance game over the final two weeks of the regular season.
However, it’s a great opportunity to find out about other players on the list — including high-profile recruit Adam Cerra.
The former Docker is nowhere near the player he was at the start of the year so he has to put his hand up this week and try to change the fortunes of the team against reigning premier Melbourne.
Carlton has certainly improved defensively in the second half of the season, which is a credit to the coaching staff.
But at the moment, the side has lost its mojo in the middle.
RICHMOND
Win contested possession count: 8-1
Opposition score over 80 points: 4-7
The Tigers are not generally renowned for contested possession and clearance wins.
However, they are more than capable of them when they apply themselves, especially in crunch games where the stakes are high.
With Dustin Martin having been sidelined for a significant portion of the season, Dion Prestia has become the main man to drive the contested ball wins in the middle.
Prestia has taken his game to another level this season and when he plays well and wins high numbers of contested possessions and clearances, he generally delivers significant score involvements.
Prestia is almost the barometer within the barometer for the Tigers, averaging 13 contested possessions in team wins this year but only 8.9 contested possessions in team losses.
He needs to challenge himself to be more consistent, because that drop off in losses is stark.
Trent Cotchin has also been a relatively reliable contested ball winner, but the pair need some more help if Richmond is to qualify for the top-eight — as I expect them to — and shake up the premiership race.
ST KILDA
Pressure factor over 180: 10-2
Pressure factor under 180: 1-7
Win contested possessions by +10: 8-2
Opposition score over 80 points: 2-7
It’s pretty simple for the Saints — when they don’t bring strong pressure across four quarters, the opposition punish them.
Sides sense the pressure drop off and can score easily on the back of that, which ties into St Kilda’s poor record when its opponents score over 80 points.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: When St Kilda does not bring the pressure, they’re a very ordinary side.
We have seen the Saints are also capable of bringing all-out assault on the footy in all areas of the ground to win the contested possession count in games.
But similar to their efforts bringing pressure, they don’t do that consistently enough.
Brett Ratten’s side made a fantastic 8-3 start to the year, but have had a significant drop off ever since.
An AFL football season is a marathon — not a sprint.
You have to bring 100 per cent effort 100 per cent of the time if you want to be a premiership candidate and St Kilda’s effort fluctuates too much for them to be taken seriously as a top-eight team.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Score 90 points or more: 8-1
Win contested possessions by +10: 7-1
The Bulldogs have the capacity to score highly and the reason for that is their strength of numbers through the midfield.
If the Dogs dominate that area, they gain strong field position and present opportunities to be efficient going inside 50.
When they score 100 or more points, they have a 7-0 record.
However, we don’t see that enough.
When opposition sides nullify some of the key playmakers through the midfield in Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Liberatore and Jack Macrae, they can gain a significant contest and territory advantage which leaves the Bulldogs’ defence vulnerable.
The Bulldogs used to be hard to score against once the ball got inside their defensive 50 — but not this year.
Their ability to defend opposition ball movement has been poor and they need to improve that aspect of their game if they are to earn a spot in finals.
They can’t purely rely on their midfielders to get the job done because when they have a bad day at the office, the Bulldogs don’t resemble a top-eight team
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