Run Home: Squeeze on in the top-four as top-eight still not set

A season that started with such promise is slipping away. The heat is right on Carlton, but all is not lost. Here are the clashes that will have a massive say.

Chris Cavanagh

@chriscavanagh1

7 min read

August 12, 2022 - 4:49PM

News Corp Australia Sports Newsroom

Can Carlton hold on to a top-eight spot? Picture: Getty Images

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With two rounds to go, there are 10 teams still in the finals race and five teams vying for three remaining spots in the top-four.

We’ve taken a close look at every club’s final two rounds to try and determine where they will finish.

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1. GEELONG (16-4, 137.1%)

TAB ODDS: Premiers: $2.75

R22: Gold Coast (Metricon) W

R23: West Coast (GMHBA) W

Predicted finish: 1st

The Cats are firming as a clear premiership favourite on the back of 11-straight wins and got the job done against fellow finals contender St Kilda on Saturday night without some of their stars including Joel Selwood (managed), Patrick Dangerfield (calf tightness) and Mark Blicavs (managed). They face two bottom-eight teams to finish the home-and-away campaign, which should be brushed aside. Heading into September on a 13-game winning streak would be quite extraordinary.

Mitch Duncan’s Geelong side is flying and is firming as premiership favourite by the week. Picture: Getty Images

2. COLLINGWOOD (15-5, 106.3%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $8, Top-4: $1.25

R22: Sydney (SCG) L

R23: Carlton (MCG) W

Predicted finish: 4th

Those who were not already convinced about Collingwood surely are now. The Magpies are one of the in-form teams of the competition alongside Geelong after scoring 11-straight wins and have seen their premiership odds almost halved from $14 to $8 over the past week. Two of those past 11 wins have come against reigning premier Melbourne, while the streak has also included victories over Carlton and Fremantle. Despite holding the lowest percentage of any team in the top-eight, one more win from Collingwood’s last two games should be enough to lock in a top-four finish. Sydney away this week will be tough – despite the Magpies having won two of their past three games over the Swans. But you’d back Collingwood to beat the struggling Blues in the final round. From there, who knows what could happen in September. Belief can carry you a long way.

3. MELBOURNE (14-6, 128.8%)

TAB ODDS: Premiers: $3.75, Top 4: $1.50

R22: Carlton (MCG) W

R23: Brisbane (Gabba) W

Predicted finish: 2nd

The Demons didn’t do a lot wrong against Collingwood last Friday night but were simply beaten by an efficient opponent which found ways to score. The forward connection piece remains a room for improvement, though, after Melbourne managed just 13 goals from 65 inside-50s. The Demons have gone WLWLWL over the past six weeks, but need to string together consecutive victories to finish the regular season. If they continue the current pattern and beat Carlton but lose to Brisbane, the reigning premiers could finish as low as sixth on the ladder. But two more wins will see them finish second (if Collingwood drops a game) or third (if Collingwood wins both games). Melbourne hasn’t played Carlton yet this season, but thumped Brisbane by 64 points at the MCG in Round 15.

Melbourne needs to string together two wins in a row to finish the season if it wants to lock in a top-four finish. Picture: Getty Images

4. SYDNEY (14-6, 127.5%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $7, Top 4: $1.22

R22: Collingwood (SCG) W

R23: St Kilda (Marvel) W

Predicted finish: 3rd

The Swans didn’t have much trouble pushing aside bottom-of-the-table North Melbourne on Sunday, making for five straight wins which provides a clear path towards a top-four finish for the first time since 2016. The clash with Collingwood at the SCG next Sunday is key to those double-chance aspirations. Lose that and Sydney is likely to finish fifth or sixth – even if it goes on to beat St Kilda in the final round. But two more wins should see Sydney finish third. John Longmire’s team can finish second and set up a home qualifying final if they win both games and either Melbourne drops at least one game or the Demons win their last two games and but the Swans make up at least 1.3 per cent on them. Sydney scored a 30-point win when it most recently met Collingwood in Round 9 last year and has gone 8-2 at the SCG this year.

5. BRISBANE (14-6, 124.2%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $12, Top 4: $2.25

R22: St Kilda (Marvel) W

R23: Melbourne (Gabba) L

Predicted finish: 6th

The Lions looked a million bucks in the first three quarters against Carlton on Sunday, but fell away badly in the final term for the second week in a row. After coughing up a 42-point second-quarter lead to lose to Richmond the previous week, coach Chris Fagan would have been furious as Carlton clawed its way back to within 15 points in the final term after trailing by as much as 58 points. The Blues’ fightback cost the Lions some vital percentage points and now leaves them on the outer in the race for the top-four. Brisbane will finish third if it wins its last two games, but only one more win would likely leave the Lions sixth. Brisbane beat St Kilda by 21 points at the Gabba in Round 13, but lost to Melbourne at the MCG by 64 points the following week.

Brisbane is still an outsider to make the top-four, despite holding on against Carlton on Sunday. Picture: Getty Images

6. FREMANTLE (13-6-1, 115.3%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $15, Top 4: $4.25

R22: West Coast (Optus) W

R23: GWS (Manuka) W

Predicted finish: 5th

The Dockers bounced back against the Western Bulldogs on Saturday and face the best possible run home, with games to come against two of the bottom three sides. That leaves Fremantle with an outside chance of still finishing top-four, but a few results would need to go their way for that to happen. The Dockers’ best hope would be to win their last two games and have their fingers crossed that Collingwood either loses its final two matches or the Magpies knock off Sydney this week. However, the most likely scenario points to a fifth-place finish which would still set up a home qualifying final.

7. CARLTON (12-8, 109.6%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $41, Top 8: $1.20

R22: Melbourne (MCG) L

R23: Collingwood (MCG) L

Predicted finish: 9th

A season which started with so much promise has badly slipped away. The Blues showed some fight in the final quarter against Brisbane on Sunday as they clawed their way back from a 58-point deficit, but it was too little, too late. Since starting the season 8-2, Carlton has gone 4-6 and is in danger of missing finals if it cannot win one of its last two games. The Western Bulldogs loom as the team which could knock the Blues out of September. If the Bulldogs beat GWS on Saturday afternoon and Carlton lose to Melbourne on Saturday night, there will be much intrigue around the final Sunday of the season. The Blues may have to beat arch rival Collingwood to make the cut – a team they lost to by four points in Round 11 – if the Bulldogs topple Hawthorn in their final-round clash earlier that day. The Western Bulldogs currently sit two games and 1.7 per cent behind Carlton on the ladder, but will make up that percentage easily with even narrow wins if the Blues lose both of their matches. The heat is right on Carlton.

Carlton coach Michael Voss has to find a way to get his side a win in the final two weeks if it is to hold on to a top-eight spot. Picture: Getty Images

8. RICHMOND (11-8-1, 115.8%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $17, Top 8: $1.10

R22: Hawthorn (MCG) W

R23: Essendon (MCG) W

Predicted finish: 7th

The Tigers looked cooked a fortnight ago, but have suddenly found a second wind as they surge towards September. Their destiny is now in their own hands, as they sit two points clear inside the top-eight with two winnable games to come against bottom-six opponents who they have already beaten this year. After last weekend’s 38-point triumph over Port Adelaide on the road, one more win should be enough to secure the Tigers a spot in September. But, you would back them to win both and head into an elimination final on a four-game winning streak. Presuming Fremantle wins at least one more game, the highest Richmond can finish is seventh. Therefore, a first final might be on the road. However, the Tigers’ know their best is good enough to beat just about anyone, anywhere.

9. ST KILDA (11-9, 101.1%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $151, Top 8: $5

R22: Brisbane (Marvel) L

R23: Sydney (Marvel) L

Predicted finish: 10th

No one expected St Kilda to head down the highway and beat Geelong on Saturday night, but it wasn’t pretty after halftime as the undermanned Cats piled on 9.3 to 3.4. The Saints, who started the season 8-3, now sit two points outside the top-eight and look like needing a miracle to get back in. Given their low percentage, they would need to win both of their last two games – against current top-six sides – to feature in September. Even then, the Saints would need either Richmond to lose at least one game or Carlton to lose both of its final two games to free up a finals spot. Better luck next year, Saints fans.

The Western Bulldogs let an opportunity slip against Fremantle on Saturday but remain in the finals hunt. Picture: Mark Stewart

10. WESTERN BULLDOGS (10-10, 107.9%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $101, Top 8: $5

R22: GWS (Marvel) W

R23: Hawthorn (UTAS) W

Predicted finish: 8th

The Bulldogs let an opportunity slip after they failed to get their hands on the footy in a poor first half against Fremantle on Saturday, but are still a live finals chance. They have two games to come against bottom-six teams, which they should be winning. Presuming Richmond wins at least one more game and St Kilda loses at least one more game, the Western Bulldogs’ September hopes then hang on Carlton falling flat in the final two weeks. The Bulldogs currently sit two games and 1.7 per cent behind Carlton on the ladder, but will make up that percentage easily with even narrow wins if the Blues lose. So, two Bulldogs wins and two Carlton losses and last year’s grand finalists are in with an eighth-place finish. The Bulldogs are 3-8 against current top-eight sides this year, though, so it could be a short-lived September if they do get there.