The Phantom’s SuperCoach Pre-Season: Sam Menegola or Josh Dunkley in the forward-line?

In the fourth week of his SuperCoach Pre-season, The Phantom gives his verdict on your head-to-head dilemmas. Today, it’s Geelong’s Sam Menegola up against young Bulldog Josh Dunkley.

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In the fourth week of his SuperCoach Pre-season, The Phantom gives his verdict on your head-to-head dilemmas. Today, it’s Geelong’s Sam Menegola up against young Bulldog Josh Dunkley in the forward line.

The Phantom's SuperCoach Face-off: Sam Menegola v Josh Dunkley

Sam Menegola (Geel $543,100) v Josh Dunkley (WB $516,300)

This one is all about sample size.

On one hand, you’ve got Dunkley, a 22-year-old heading into his fourth season in the competition.

The tough midfielder averaged 29 disposals, 11 contested possessions, seven tackles, five marks and 116 SuperCoach points per game from Round 15 onwards last season.

And in the final five rounds of the year, when Dunkley posted scores of 147, 132, 106, 157 and 116, only Brodie Grundy, Jack Macrae and Dangerfield scored more SuperCoach points.

But, as good as the numbers are, it’s only a nine-game sample.

In the first 30 home-and-away games of his career, the right-footer posted just one SuperCoach ton and failed to score more than 75 on 17 occasions.

On the other hand, you’ve got Menegola.

Like Dunkley, the 2019 season will be the 26-year-old Cat’s fourth in the competition.

If we use the same sample size, the hard-working midfielder’s numbers, while still impressive, don’t reach the heights of the young Bulldog’s.

In the final nine games of 2018, Menegola averaged 105 points per game, recording six consecutive SuperCoach tons to finish the season.

But in the previous 30 games, while Menegola had trouble with consistency failing to score more than 75 points in seven matches, he posted 15 SuperCoach tons.

Going back even further, in the first nine games of his career — including finals — Menegola passed the 90-point mark in seven of them and the 100-point mark in three.

Although he’s played six more minor-round games, Menegola has scored at least 90 points 16 more times than Dunkley in their first three seasons.

But, importantly, Menegola, after previously being listed by Hawthorn and Fremantle, didn’t play his first senior game until he was 24.

Dunkley made his debut as an 18 year old.

Menegola set a high-scoring standard immediately and has maintained it since.

While it started at a high point, his graph features no major spike with Menegola averaging between 99.3 and 100.4 in each of his three seasons.

In 2018, Dunkley added 25 points to his previous-high season average and the huge spike in scoring in the back half of the year would suggest it might climb again.

Menegola is the safe option who is sure to average three figures again, especially with Gary Ablett spending more time forward.

But an important part of SuperCoach is identifying trends and scoring lines on an upward trajectory.

Sure Dunkley’s sample size is small but all the SuperCoach stars start somewhere.

Plus his Round 12 bye, opposed to Menegola’s in Round 13, appears easier to navigate.

The Phantom’s Verdict

Dunkley. The return of Liberatore — and what coach Luke Beveridge does with his midfield — is a slight concern but I expect his scoring graph to continue to rise rapidly, eclipsing Menegola’s this season.