An Adelaide defence without Alex Keath will have its hands full stopping Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling on Sunday
As a group, they’ve had a terrific year but without Alex Keath, the tough challenge of stopping a West Coast attack firing on all cylinders, becomes even harder for Don Pyke’s back six.
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Adelaide coach Don Pyke was right in stating his Alex Keath-less defence “will have their hands full” against the Eagles on Sunday.
Keath, whose form is likely to command a spot in the All-Australian 40-man squad, will miss a third week with a leg injury.
Despite missing the past two matches, the 27-year-old’s 48 intercept marks this season is still 16 more than any other Crow. And, further highlighting his importance to Adelaide’s back six, the numbers say Keath is still the best one-on-one defender.
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The out-of-contract Keath has only lost 13 of his 57 defensive one-on-one contests this season (22.8 per cent) — a lower percentage than Daniel Talia (23.9 per cent), Jake Kelly (26.8 per cent), Kyle Hartigan (31.8 per cent) and Luke Brown (35.5 per cent).
As a group, they’ve had a terrific year, conceding just 75.6 per game, the fifth-lowest in the competition.
But without Keath this week, a tough challenge becomes even harder.
West Coast’s attack is firing on all cylinders, averaging 99 points per game — the second-most in the league — since the bye and 112 points in its past five matches at Optus Stadium.
Leading the charge are the two key-pillars Jack Darling and Josh Kennedy.
Darling’s 21 goals since Round 14 is more than any other player in the competition and takes his season-tally to 47, placing him fifth in the Coleman Medal race.
Kennedy, who has missed two games this year, sits two spots behind him with 40 majors to his name.
“Obviously the two keys are Darling and Kennedy — they are their most productive and effective forwards,” Pyke said on Thursday.
“It will be a good challenge for the guys who get those jobs.”
Following the bye, West Coast is not only putting the ball inside-50 more often, Adam Simpson’s side is making it count.
The Eagles have scored from 49.3 per cent of its forward-50 entries since Round 13, the highest percentage in the competition and six per cent higher than in the first half of the season.
And this efficiency can be attributed to the ability of Darling and Kennedy to mark the ball inside the arc.
Post-bye, the key forwards rank third and fourth respectively for this stat — only Richmond’s Tom Lynch and North Melbourne’s Ben Brown have taken more.
The precise kicking of Shannon Hurn (1st), Andrew Gaff (16th) and Brad Sheppard (18th), who all rank in the AFL’s top-20 for effective kicks, further up the ground helps but the leading patterns and marking — in a contest or out in space — of the two star forwards is up there with the best in the league.
And it’s in the air where the Crows appear vulnerable without Keath.
On average in 2019, Adelaide gives away 9.9 marks inside 50 per game — the fourth-best number in the competition.
But in the past two matches without Keath, the opposition has taken a combined 25. And 16 of them came in the disappointing loss to Carlton in Round 19.
Forwards Harry McKay (4) and Levi Casboult (3) took seven between them as the Blues generated 22 scores from 46 inside 50s — the same number of forward entries as the Crows.
While the Saints only took nine last week, No. 1 forward Tim Membrey had an influence, booting three goals from 17 disposals and eight marks, pushing further up the ground — something most of the dynamic Eagles’ forward group does well, too.
It was Kyle Hartigan who followed Membrey for most of the night but he was convincingly beaten.
“Not his best performance, quite clearly. You speak to him afterwards and he knows he hasn’t had a great game,” Pyke said post-match.
“He’s been a solid and consistent performer for a while but he didn’t have a great night.
“That’s footy, sometimes that happens.”
It does but the Crows can’t afford for it to happen again this week.
Because there’s also Oscar Allen, Liam Ryan, Jake Waterman, Willie Rioli and the returning Jamie Cripps to worry about.