Port Adelaide and Crows deserve a tie-breaker Showdown in AFL finals, but odds are very, very slim
AFTER two epic Showdowns have delivered a 1-1 count between the Crows and Port Adelaide this season, what are the chances of a third derby in next month’s AFL finals?
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IT feels like AFL Season 2018 needs a third Showdown, just as boxing craved that third heavyweight bout between Muhammad Ali and Ken Norton in 1973.
Boxing aficionados waited three years for a 15-round tie-breaker between Ali and Norton at Yankee Stadium. Their fights in March and September, 1973 finished 1-1, with split decisions after each of the 12-round bouts.
It feels just that way again after a season of derby deadlock from Showdown 44 in May (won by Port Adelaide by five points on that Steven Motlop goal with 21 seconds to the final bell) and Showdown 45 on Saturday night (won by the Crows by three points with that controversy with Josh Jenkins goal in the last 158 seconds).
And AFL fans have just three weeks to wait to know if there will be the ultimate Showdown of the season with an elimination-final derby at Adelaide Oval — with the national free-to-air television audience, as Malcolm Blight notes, to appreciate the greatest rivalry in Australian football.
The odds are not great of Adelaide ranking eighth and the Power fifth at the end of the home-and-away series, particularly with both teams needing percentage boosts. But if it is to be, there will be this script to play out in the next three weeks:
ADELAIDE must win all three games against Greater Western Sydney (Canberra), North Melbourne (home) and last-ranked Carlton (Etihad Stadium). And, most importantly, the Crows must lift their inferior percentage from 98.6 to at least 107.
There certainly could be a big boost in the percentage against the Blues at the fast-scoring indoor Docklands stadium. And there is optimism of another percentage charge against the Kangaroos considering Adelaide has won its four games against North Melbourne at Adelaide Oval by 208 points (52-point average).
Beating the Giants is the big test.
PORT ADELAIDE must win its remaining home games against West Coast and Essendon — and lift its percentage from 114.9 to around 120 while not taking a heavy blow from Collingwood at the MCG.
Considering the Power has never beaten West Coast in four games at Adelaide Oval and has lost its past two matches to the Bombers (both in Melbourne), Port Adelaide will have to prove it is an improved unit.
AND the dream script needs Geelong and Collingwood to each win their three games; GWS to lose all three; Hawthorn to fall to Geelong this weekend and finish with two wins; Melbourne to beat Sydney and the Giants but lose to the Eagles; and Sydney to lose to Melbourne, beat the Giants and lose to Hawthorn.
This would set up a final eight with Richmond, West Coast, Collingwood and Melbourne in the top-four and Port Adelaide (5), Geelong (6), Hawthorn (7) and Adelaide (8) in the elimination finals while Sydney misses the finals for the first time since 2009 despite having a 13-9 win-loss count.
It would be the first time since the top-eight finals were introduced in 1994 that a team with 13 wins did not play in the major round.
And it would have the Crows and Power play in their second Showdown final after the blowout win by Adelaide in the 2005 semi-finals ended Port Adelaide’s premiership defence.
It just feels right. And who won the third Ali-Norton bout? Ali, after the cards were level at the end of the 14th round.
michelangelo.rucci@news.com.au
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