Who will be the first AFL coach to face the axe this year after none were sacked in 2018?
No AFL coaches were sacked at the end of 2018. But rest assured it will be a different story at the end of this year. One year without a sacking, yes. But two years? Not in this caper.
Chris McDermott
Don't miss out on the headlines from Chris McDermott. Followed categories will be added to My News.
AT the start of the 2018 AFL season, Adam Simpson and Nathan Buckley were the two coaches under most pressure to produce results.
North Melbourne’s Brad Scott was in the discussion but coaching Collingwood or West Coast comes with some added pressure.
The rest is history. Both made a grand final and rightly survived to coach another day, as did their counterparts across the AFL.
Instead, the spotlight turned to the assistant coaches, with damaging effect. But rest assured it will be a different story at the end of this year. One year without a sacking, yes. But two years? Not in this caper.
Today, Simpson and Buckley are among the most secure of coaches.
Buckley has just penned a two-year extension. Simpson’s future is rock solid for many seasons to come. They are in rare air for an AFL coach.
But in this game, things can change very quickly.
Richmond boss Damien Hardwick is in similar territory and actually may be more secure than the 2018 grand final mentors.
Hardwick climbed the mountain, broke the Tigers’ 38-year premiership drought and helped to set up the club on and off the field for many years to come.
The presence at Tigerland of the much-respected Justin Leppitsch has helped him immeasurably. Hardwick has surrounded himself with the best assistants, not the least-threatening ones, and success has followed.
Sam Mitchell, who had a similar impact at West Coast alongside Simpson, has returned to his football home at Hawthorn.
Brenton Sanderson at Collingwood is having a significant influence on Buckley. A trustworthy assistant makes life much easier — if coaching ever is easy.
Simon Goodwin’s future is also clear, with a new deal imminent at Melbourne and signs the Dees’ 55-year premiership drought could be nearing an end.
The next group of four coaches may not be quite as secure but it would take something dramatic to see their tenures end this year.
Don Pyke has formed very strong relationships on and off the field at West Lakes and, despite a hiccup last season, he appears to be on solid ground.
But at Adelaide a coach only has to do a little wrong to feel the wrath of the flag-starved supporter base.
The Crows’ window for success is open and a premiership must come in the next three years.
Elsewhere, Chris Fagan is doing good things in small doses at Brisbane and also has surrounded himself with good people — none better than former Crows assistant David Noble, as football manager.
Alastair Clarkson has the role at Hawthorn for as long as he wants it, while John Worsfold just needs to continue the Bombers’ slow — and long climb back up the ladder to keep his.
The Bombers are on track to put a full stop on their recent controversial history and with two years left on his deal, Worsfold is just the man to put their horror past to bed in the best possible fashion. As for the other 10 coaches, none are safe. Not John Longmire at Sydney nor Leon Cameron at GWS. Not Ross Lyon at Fremantle nor Ken Hinkley at Alberton.
All have contracts, all have runs on the board but all must perform in 2019 — or else.
The Swans’ decade of success looks to be coming to an end. The Giants have had their chances recently but have fallen short.
The Dockers have added Jesse Hogan and Rory Lobb but they need more, while the Power had its chance last year and blew it.
An opportunity missed is an opportunity lost and these four clubs and their current coaches have let theirs slip.
Jobs will be lost if the tide doesn’t turn soon.
The remaining six coaches sit in very uncomfortable seats. Nothing would surprise.
Chris Scott and Geelong have threatened to dominate for years but after Scott oversaw the 2011 flag in his debut season, the Cats have not delivered. Good can no longer be good enough.
Brad Scott produced a surprise rise up the ladder for the Kangaroos last season but that may not save him if they slip again.
Luke Beveridge, at the Bulldogs, has gone from boiled lollies to chocolates and back to boiled lollies following the club’s 2016 breakthrough.
Every dog has his day — not many get two.
Stewy Dew’s time at the Gold Coast is purely a matter of who blinks first. Josh Francou has arrived to share the burden.
Of all 18 coaches, it is Brendon Bolton and Alan Richardson who are most vulnerable.
Bolton’s fate at Carlton has a sense of inevitability while Richardson, at St Kilda, is the right man, just at the wrong club.
If the Saints can’t get the four points in Round 1 against the Suns, they could find themselves at 0-10 by mid-season, and Richardson’s papers will already have been stamped.
There is not a coach out of contract at the end of this season but that doesn’t mean all of them will be employed in 2020.
The smart money suggests at least one will fall. Maybe more.
WHO’S SAFE? BONE’S ORDER
1 Adam Simpson
2. Damien Hardwick
3. Simon Goodwin
4. Nathan Buckley
5. Don Pyke
6. Chris Fagan
7. Alastair Clarkson
8. John Worsfold
9. John Longmire
10. Leon Cameron
11. Ken Hinkley
12. Ross Lyon
13. Chris Scott
14. Brad Scott
15. Luke Beveridge
16. Stewart Dew
17. Alan Richardson
18. Brendon Bolton
Every game of every round of the 2019 Toyota AFL Premiership Season LIVE with no ad-breaks during play. SIGN UP NOW!
Second chances rarely pay off for AFL coaches
History suggests strongly that if you miss out on a premiership at your first try as a coach, you should not get another chance — unless you’re Mick Malthouse or Malcolm Blight, writes Chris McDermott.
When two tribes go to war
It was the game that stopped a state — the first Showdown between the Crows and Power on April 20, 1997. Chris McDermott shares his memories for Part 1 of The Greatest Showdowns series.