Giving coaches a second shot at AFL glory is not a recipe for success
History suggests strongly that if you miss out on a premiership at your first try as a coach, you should not get another chance — unless you’re Mick Malthouse or Malcolm Blight, writes Chris McDermott.
Be warned. In the past 50 years of the AFL/VFL, only two men have coached a team to a premiership after failing to deliver the silverware at their first coaching gig.
And they were two unique men — all-time greats and legends of the game — Mick Malthouse and Malcolm Blight. The mere mortals have found it impossible.
Malthouse took the West Coast Eagles to glory for the first time in 1992 and backed it up in 1994, after finding the challenge too great at Footscray in 1985.
The Doggies made it to a preliminary final but could go no further.
Blight took Geelong to the “one day in September” in 1989, only to lose one of the greatest deciders of all time to Hawthorn.
The now dual premiership coach had a brief stint as playing coach with North Melbourne in a troubled 1980 season, winning six games and losing 10 while enduring a tough year.
But with the Crows, he conjured flags in 1997 and ’98.
History suggests strongly that if you miss out on a premiership at your first try as a coach, you should not get another chance — unless you’re a legend in the making. Like Blight.
With three coaching jobs up for grabs, the advice to the decision makers must be to select your next man with caution. Make the tough decision, not the popular one — and, if in doubt, choose an untried coach ahead of an unsuccessful, but seasoned campaigner.
Nevertheless, the door should still be ajar for Brad Scott.
The 10-year, 211-game former coach of the Kangaroos has not achieved the ultimate success but he did get to a preliminary final in 2015. That is close enough.
Scott’s name should be top of every list. Except North Melbourne’s.
He was a half-back flanker, too, and we know the success they have in the coaching caper.
Michael Voss is another in the shuffle but history works against the triple premiership captain. Voss coached his beloved Lions for five seasons but after taking them to sixth in his first year, he could get them no higher than 12th in his next four, before heading out the door.
His time as an assistant at the Power has been good and he quite rightly has many admirers … but buyer beware, given how second-time coaches have fared in the past.
Brett Ratten’s name will also be in discussions. In six seasons, the former Blues boss could manage no higher than fifth place, before having his tenure cut short by 12 months.
He was at Hawthorn as an assistant during its three-peat from 2013 to 2015 and eventually found himself at St Kilda under Alan Richardson, where he has taken the reins for the last seven games of 2019 following the coach’s dismissal. Ratten’s hands may be on the wheel for the rest of the season but his resume does not guarantee him another shot, regardless of how this stint plays out.
Rhyce Shaw and David Teague are the two other caretaker coaches.
Shaw comes from good stock and had a great apprenticeship at Sydney, winning two AFLCA assistant-coach-of-the-year awards.
His relationship with his players is a well-known strength and his early days have been an outstanding success. It looks his job to lose but he has come from the clouds and wise heads must prevail first. It is easy to give him the job now, but it would not be wise. Patience is a must. Teague is in similar territory at Carlton but his rise to being a contender is even more meritorious.
He has been a journeyman, starting at West Coast before heading to St Kilda, then Adelaide before ending up at Carlton, where he now has control and is making every post a winner. The Blues are looking the best they have in many years but it may not be enough.
Carlton does like the big names and the Blues will be doing everything they can to convince Paul Roos to take up the challenge.
It would be a courageous move to appoint Teague after the failure of a relative unknown in Brendon Bolton.
In days of old, this club would have chased Roos until he said yes, no matter the price. The question is are they still the “Carlton of old”?
Of the long shots, there are two that could surprise. Both are familiar to South Australians — Matthew Nicks and Adam Kingsley.
Nicks has been close before and must press his claims soon.
He has been through the Sydney system, which has been a great resource for him, and spent eight years at Alberton before his recent move to GWS.
He has plenty of admirers and deserves an opportunity soon.
Another Power favourite, Adam Kingsley, may be a step ahead. He has had 12 years as an assistant and, like Shaw, has won an AFLCA assistant-coach-of-the-year award.
His move to Richmond this season after eight years at St Kilda was smart — and a premiership would only further enhance his growing standing in the game.
Former Crows defender and Swans premiership player Martin Mattner is one to watch.
Already a dual premiership coach at Sturt in the SANFL, there is plenty to like about his grasp of the game.
Not now but watch this space.
Whatever the final decisions on the next three coaches are, the AFL is about to change and, after what we’ve seen this year, that’s a good thing.