Bone’s beef: The secret to winning a flag is kicking snags
If you can’t score you can’t win. And nearing the halfway mark of the 2019 season history suggests only four teams are in premiership contention, writes Chris McDermott.
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If you can’t score you can’t win.
It’s an oldie but a goodie and still rings true today despite the rapidly declining scoring rate.
Since the inception of the Adelaide Football Club in 1991, only two teams — the dour, defensive Paul Roos-coached Sydney Swans and the Western Bulldogs of 2016 — have averaged less than 13 goals and game and won the premiership.
In 2005 the Swans averaged 12.6 goals a game when they defeated West Coast in an eight goal to seven grand final thriller at the MCG.
The Bulldogs averaged 12.5 goals a game when they broke their 62-year premiership drought in 2016, kicking 13 goals to beat the Swans by 22 points.
Nearing the halfway mark of the 2019 season history suggests only four teams are in premiership contention. Geelong, GWS, Collingwood and Brisbane.
The Cats average just over 15 goals per game to be the number one scoring team.
The Giants and the Magpies are next, going at just under 14 goals per game while the Lions are surprisingly the fourth best scoring team in the AFL, averaging a tick over 13 goals a game.
All of them have multiple avenues to goal.
Geelong has Hawkins, Rohan, Ablett and Dangerfield.
GWS has Cameron, Finlayson and the returning Toby Greene.
Collingwood has De Goey, Stephenson, Elliott and Mihocek.
Brisbane has Hipwood, Cameron, McCarthy, McCluggage, McStay and Rayner.
If history holds true the premiership race is down to these four.
Richmond are just out of contention averaging 12.4 goals a game.
The Power are sixth at 12.1 goals a game.
The Crows are seventh at 11.4.
It's a far cry from the early 1990s.
The beginning of the AFL was a scoring frenzy!
The 1991 premier Hawthorn averaged and almost incomprehensible 19.9 goals a game.
Twelve months later, Geelong set the bar at 22 goals a game but lost the grand final to the West Coast Eagles.
Unfortunately scoring has been in steady decline since 2000 when the Baby Bombers averaged 19.6 goals a game and smashed Melbourne by 10 goals in the premiership decider.
By 2010 the best in the competition, Geelong, was averaging 16.5 goals a game
By 2015 all teams were below 15 goals a game except Hawthorn at just over 16.
Two years later, only the Crows and the Power were above 14 and last year there was just one — Melbourne, which failed in the preliminary final.
At this rate by 2025 every team will be under 10 goals a game.
I am not sure that's a game of football anyone wants to see. Certainly not for 22 weeks of the season. 198 games. Then finals.
Scoring has plummeted to its lowest level in 50 years, despite new starting position and kick-in rules have had unforeseen consequences.
Something must be done before the decline in crowds follows suit.
Second chances rarely pay off for AFL coaches
History suggests strongly that if you miss out on a premiership at your first try as a coach, you should not get another chance — unless you’re Mick Malthouse or Malcolm Blight, writes Chris McDermott.
When two tribes go to war
It was the game that stopped a state — the first Showdown between the Crows and Power on April 20, 1997. Chris McDermott shares his memories for Part 1 of The Greatest Showdowns series.