AFL Brownlow Medal: Who will poll the most votes at your club?
Bragging rights are up for grabs at all 18 clubs come Brownlow night. In anticipation, check out who the SuperFooty team and Champion Data are picking to top your club’s votes this year.
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Get ready for one of the tightest Brownlow Medal races in years. But that isn’t the only thing up for grabs on Monday night.
Bragging rights are also on the line at all 18 clubs as we wait to see who the top pollers will be.
In some cases, the race is so one-sided, it’s more interesting to look at who will come second.
While at other clubs, the battle to finish on top is so tight, there is nothing separating four players.
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There is a lot to work through but fear not, we’ve done all the heavy lifting for you.
In SuperFooty’s Ultimate Brownlow Predictor, we’ve got every match for 2019 covered with votes and analysis as well as overall and club by club leaderboards.
Then scroll down for even more detailed insights on your team, including the key games that will decide each count and find out who is capable of causing an upset.
Also, check out Champion Data’s official numbers for 2019 as well as the latest odds and betting advice.
ADELAIDE
The bookies have framed this as a two horse race, with Brad and Matt Crouch sitting at the top of the betting. But there are a couple of red flags to consider before handing this over to the Crouch family. Across his 83 game career, Brad has just 13 Brownlow votes to his name. He played 17 games in Adelaide’s run to the 2017 Grand Final and received just three votes. Matt’s best tally in a single season is 11 but his high possession game can sometimes be all or nothing. Across his career he has six three vote games and just two one vote games. That doesn’t leave a lot of margin for error. When it comes to looking for a value selection, Rory Sloane ticks all the boxes. Throughout 2016 and 2017, Sloane was third in combined Brownlow votes behind only Dustin Martin and Patrick Dangerfield. Adding weight to Sloane’s 2019 case, he did his best work when the Crows were winning games. Between Round 1 and Round 15, he is in the mix to poll in 10 games. If he holds a big lead going into the final third of the season, look out.
CHAMPION DATA VOTES:
Sloane 15; B. Crouch, M. Crouch 12; Laird 7; Betts, Atkins 4; Smith, O’Brien 3.
TAB CLUB ODDS
$1.67 B. Crouch; $2.15 M. Crouch; $13 Sloane, Laird.
THE TIP
Rory Sloane is the value selection here. Before this season, Sloane polled 94 votes from 145 games, well ahead of Matt Crouch (26 from 90) and Brad Crouch (13 from 61). Sloane’s 2019 stats aren’t far behind when he was awarded 24 votes (2016) and 20 (2017).
BRISBANE
No one at the Lions is catching Lachie Neale. But the “favourite out” markets pit Dayne Zorko and Jarryd Lyons in a tight race for second spot.
If Lyons is to have a chance of causing an upset, it will come down to him securing maximum votes in these four games.
Round 11: v Hawthorn: 33 disposals
Round 17: v Port Adelaide: 36 disposals, one goal
Round 18: v North Melbourne: 30 disposals, two goals
Round 21: v Gold Coast: 34 disposals, two goals
Anything less than 12 votes across these games and it is advantage Zorko.
CHAMPION DATA
Neale 22; Zorko 16; Lyons 13; Robinson 8; Rich, Martin 4; Hipwood 3.
TAB CLUB ODDS
(Without Lachie Neale): $1.22 Zorko; $4 Lyons; $9 Cameron; $34 Robinson; $41 McCluggage.
THE TIP
Champion Data has Zorko in the mix to poll in 10 games compared to Lyons in seven. Zorko’s 22 goals to Lyons’ 13 tilts the balance slightly in the former’s favour, but there’s very little between them. Lyons is worth a small wager on that basis.
CARLTON
Patrick Cripps’ dominance means all the action at the Blues is for second place.
This year it is a case of the old taking on the young with veteran Marc Murphy going head to head with Rising Star winner Sam Walsh. After a slow start to the year under Brendon Bolton, Murphy comes home like a steam train and is a chance to poll in four games between rounds 15 and 22. Walsh was a disposal winning machine in his first year and got all the midfield minutes he could handle. But will he be recognised by the umpires?
CHAMPION DATA
Cripps 20; Walsh 8; Murphy 7; E. Curnow 6; Petrevski-Seton 5; Kreuzer 3.
TAB CLUB ODDS
(Without Patrick Cripps): $1.55 Murphy; $3.50 E. Curnow; $6 Walsh; $11 Newman; $26 Kreuzer; $41 Casboult.
THE TIP
It often takes the umpires a while to notice young stars. Recent Rising Star winners Jaidyn Stephenson (two votes), Andrew McGrath and Callum Mills (both none) went unnoticed by the whistle blowers. Murphy should finish hard from Round 15 to win this market.
COLLINGWOOD
It is a race in three at the Magpies with a trio of different styles going head-to-head. Adam Treloar led the league in disposals, Brodie Grundy might be the most dominant player in the AFL and no one is smoother than Scott Pendlebury. It leaves punters with plenty to consider.
Adam Treloar
Biggest pro: Champion Data has Treloar a legitimate chance to poll in 16 matches. That is a massive number.
Biggest con: How much weight do the umpires place on disposal efficiency? Treloar is ranked sixth in the league for clangers.
Brodie Grundy
Biggest pro: Few players experienced more of a spike in polling from 2017 to 2018 than Grundy, who jumped from two votes to 17. Twelve months later he is averaging more disposals, hitouts and clearances.
Biggest con: While it is not as extreme as defenders, ruckmen aren’t always rewarded for their dominance. Max Gawn was outpolled by Angus Brayshaw last year.
Scott Pendlebury
Biggest pro: The Collingwood skipper is a polling machine. He has not dropped under 15 Brownlow votes in a season since 2009.
Biggest con: While Champion Data rates him a chance to poll in 10 games, that is a long way behind Treloar’s 16 and gives the younger Pie a lot more margin for error.
CHAMPION DATA
Treloar 21; Grundy 18; Pendlebury 16; Sidebottom 9; De Goey 5; Elliott 3.
TAB CLUB ODDS
$1.65 Treloar; $2.40 Grundy; $5.50 Pendlebury; $101 Sidebottom, De Goey.
THE TIP
Decent three-horse race here. Treloar’s numbers are similar to 2016 when he polled 21 votes. We like him in a tight finish.
ESSENDON
It is near-on impossible to see anyone catching Zach Merrett, who was clearly the best and most consistent of the Bombers’ midfield brigade. He is even a chance of sneaking into the top 10 come the end of the night. From there it comes down to a battle between Dylan Shiel and Dyson Heppell. And good luck splitting this duo. SuperFooty has Shiel and Heppell locked on seven votes each, while Champion Data has the two in a neck and neck race with only .5 of a vote separating them. That is about as tight as it gets. Good luck!
CHAMPION DATA
Z. Merrett 16; Shiel 8; Heppell 7; Saad, McDonald-Tipungwuti 6; Zaharakis 4.
TAB CLUB ODDS
$1.03 Z. Merrett; $9 Shiel; $21 Heppell; $61 McDonald-Tipungwuti.
THE TIP
Merrett wins here but has no value, maybe for multis at best. Heppell has a strong voting record, but missed five games while Merrett played in all of them.
FREMANTLE
This is one of the most clear cut races for any club. Nat Fyfe has bigger fish to fry than his Docker teammates and will lap the field here. Second looks about as simple as it gets, with Michael Walters on track to top his previous career best of 10 votes. While Fyfe will take a lot of his three vote opportunities, Walters is a chance to poll at least two votes in upwards of six games.
CHAMPION DATA
Fyfe 26; Walters 13; B. Hill, Mundy 7; Ryan, McCarthy 2.
TAB CLUB ODDS
(Without Nat Fyfe): $1.13 Walters; $8 Mundy, B. Hill; $26 Langdon; $51 Ryan.
GEELONG
Does Tim Kelly have a realistic chance of causing an upset over outright favourite Patrick Dangerfield? There will certainly be a few nervous moments for punters taking the short odds on Dangerfield, with Kelly on track to be leading the entire Brownlow at Round 15. However, he does fall away in the final third of the season. Adversely, that is when Dangerfield hits another level. In the final eight games of the year he is a chance to poll in seven of them. From Round 11 onwards he has six three vote chances.
CHAMPION DATA
Dangerfield 27; Kelly 21; Duncan 12; Ablett 7; Stewart 6; J. Selwood 4; Hawkins 3.
TAB CLUB ODDS
$1.05 Dangerfield; $8 Kelly; $41 Ablett; $51 Duncan; $101 Hawkins.
THE TIP
Dangerfield has polled 21 or more votes in six of the past seven seasons. Last year it was 17. Champion Data has both players in the mix to poll votes in 18 games. But Dangerfield is a chance in eight to snare maximum votes. Kelly looks to have just four such opportunities. Dangerfield wins, but $1.05 is too short to touch.
GOLD COAST
As usual, the Gold Coast vote count is an absolute lottery. That is the trouble when a team without any star power doesn’t win many games. And even when the Suns did win games in 2019, there were still high-profile opposition stars who could steal the three votes. For example, the wins against the Western Bulldogs and Carlton were dominated by Marcus Bontempelli and Patrick Cripps. That leaves basically no margin for error if you have a player locked in for three votes and they only hit one. Regardless, the SuperFooty predictor has landed on Brayden Fiorini. While he might not be the biggest name in the game, he did tie for top honours at the Suns last year which means he is on the umpires’ radar. Now for the bad news. His three best performances came in losses. That is enough to make us nervous and explains why the bookmakers like David Swallow.
CHAMPION DATA
Fiorini 8; Swallow 4; Miller 3; Witts, Harbrow 2.
TAB CLUB ODDS
$1.68 Swallow; $2.15 Fiorini; $9 Miller; $13 Sexton; $21 Witts; $26 Martin, Harbrow.
THE TIP
The Suns’ voting, as usual, is a lottery. Brayden Fiorini was a $9 equal winner in this market last year with Tom Lynch. At least the umpires know Fiorini. Still, it’s safest to leave Gold Coast alone.
GWS
This might be the most wide-open team vote count in the league, with four legitimate chances vying for top honours. Throughout the first two thirds of the season, the battle between Stephen Coniglio and Josh Kelly will be intriguing. Champion Data gives Kelly a chance of polling in nine matches before injury struck in Round 16. Meanwhile, Coniglio could poll in upwards of eight. However, whatever leads they hold come the final stretch will need to be significant, with both men stuck on the sidelines for most of the final six weeks of the year. That opens the door for Jeremy Cameron, who is in line for maximum votes against Collingwood (six goals) and Gold Coast (nine goals). While all this is playing out, you need to keep an eye on Lachie Whitfield, who SuperFooty expects to poll 15 votes. Oh boy!
CHAMPION DATA
Kelly 15; Cameron, Coniglio 14; Whitfield 13; Williams 8; Greene 6; Taranto 2.
TAB CLUB ODDS
$2.25 Coniglio; $4 Whitfield; $4.75 Cameron; $6 Taranto; $7.50 Kelly; $26 Greene.
THE TIP
A ripping battle shapes here. Lachie Whitfield (16 matches), Stephen Coniglio (15) and Josh Kelly (14) will snag some best afields, but they missed too many games. That opens the door for Jeremy Cameron. He played 20 matches and kicked five or more goals in five of them including two bags of six, a seven and a nine. He’s value at $4.75.
HAWTHORN
It is going to be a case of SuperFooty going head to head with the bookies here. Most of the odds makers have James Worpel the hot favourite for the Hawks. However, we have him a long way down the pecking order. Be mindful, sometimes it takes umpires time to fully recognise when a young gun has taken the next step.
So what are Worpel’s games to look out for?
Round 2: 27 disposals, two goals
Round 17: 33 disposals in a win against Fremantle
Round 21: 31 disposals in a win against GWS
Round 22: 34 disposals and two goals against Gold Coast
But who is the real man to beat? Jaeger O’Meara polled well last year and both SuperFooty and Champion Data expect him to back it up again in 2019.
CHAMPION DATA
O’Meara 12; Shiels 9; Henderson, Sicily 8; McEvoy 4; Gunston, Worpel 3.
TAB CLUB ODDS
$2 Worpel; $3 O’Meara; $5 Sicily; $6 Henderson; $101 Gunston, Wingard, McEvoy.
THE TIP
Sometimes it takes umpires a year or two to recognise a young gun. That’s why we’re staying away from James Worpel. Jaeger O’Meara polled 13 votes last season and has similar stats this year, though his goals dropped from 16 to eight. He’s the one to beat.
MELBOURNE
It was a dirty year for the Demons and as such, they aren’t expected to feature too heavily come Brownlow night. The battle between Max Gawn and Clayton Oliver is set to be intriguing, with nothing separating the duo. Picking a winner could even come down to polling history. While Angus Brayshaw’s shock finish in Melbourne’s count made headlines last year, it’s easy to forget Gawn did have a strong polling year. The All-Australian ruckman finished equal fourth with 20 votes. Meanwhile, Oliver was tipped as a top three chance but polled just 13 votes to finish outside the top 20. With that in mind, it’s hard not to give the edge to Gawn.
CHAMPION DATA
Oliver, Gawn 12; T. McDonald 4; Brayshaw, Jones, Viney 3.
TAB CLUB ODDS
$1.40 Gawn; $2.75 Oliver; $21 T. McDonald; $51 Harmes.
THE TIP
Gawn was sensationally pipped by $26 chance Angus Brayshaw last year, 21 votes to 20 with Clayton Oliver (13) next. It’s Gawn v Oliver this year. We’re tipping the umps to side with the bearded wonder, but $1.40 is not worth launching on.
NORTH MELBOURNE
It is going to be a frantic finish at the Roos, with Shaun Higgins charging home in an effort to topple Ben Cunnington. At the conclusion of Round 15, Cunnington should have a handy lead but his votes dry up from that point. It is around that time that the smooth moving Higgins returns from injury. Higgins should feature in the votes in four of the last six games and given his strong opening to the season, that should be enough to hand him the win. Interestingly, while SuperFooty gives a strong edge to Higgins, Champion Data has it coming down to a much tighter race in three between Cunnington, Higgins and Ben Brown. Brown kicked 63 goals in 2017 for 14 Brownlow votes. He kicked 61 goals in 2018 for six votes. How will his 64 goals this year be evaluated?
CHAMPION DATA
Higgins 13; Cunnington 12; Brown 11; Ziebell 8; Goldstein 7; Polec 4.
TAB CLUB ODDS
$1.55 Higgins; $2.40 Cunnington; $9 Brown; $17 Ziebell, Goldstein; $101 Polec.
THE TIP
Shaun Higgins (15 votes) pipped Ben Cunnington (11) last year and we can see a similar result here. Higgins missed five games, but Cunnington’s heavy handball game and lack of goals (six) seem to make him less noticeable. The umpires ignored Ben Brown last year (six votes for 61 goals) so we’re not touching him.
PORT ADELAIDE
Travis Boak’s dominance will mean he is an easy winner at the Power, with the veteran midfielder a chance to break the 20-vote barrier for just the second time in his career. However, it is the race for second where all the action will be. The prolific Tom Rockliff will go head-to-head with the highly impactful Robbie Gray in a battle of contrasting styles. Like the overall fortunes of his club, Rockliff’s start to the season was much more impressive than his finish, with the midfielder a chance to poll in six of the first nine rounds. That is in stark contrast to Gray, who won’t get his first votes until Round 11. Best on ground performances in Round 14 and Round 16 as well as more votes in Round 20 will certainly cut the margin. But it might be too late.
CHAMPION DATA
Boak 21; Rockliff 11; R. Gray 8; Wines 7; Byrne-Jones 5; Rozee 4.
TAB CLUB ODDS
(Without Travis Boak): $1.70 R. Gray; $2.30 Rockliff; $11 Wines; $15 Lycett; $21 Westhoff; $26 S. Gray; $34 Rozee.
THE TIP
Tom Rockliff will enjoy a handy lead by Round 9, but Robbie Gray makes his run in the second half of the season. Gray’s greater voting history — 66 votes in the past five years — gives him the edge. We pick him but not with great confidence.
RICHMOND
Another year, another night of listening to D Martin — three votes.
After a slightly slow start to the year, Dusty comes home in a blaze of glory, and is a huge chance to poll three votes in five of the last nine games. However, if for any reason Martin isn’t rewarded with maximum votes, look for Dion Prestia to capitalise. Prestia finished the year on an absolute tear, with Champion Data rating him a polling chance in seven of the last eight games. At Round 16 he may be sitting behind Bachar Houli but that upcoming level of consistency should be enough to see him overtake the rebounding defender. History is also on Prestia’s side. The midfielder has 31 Brownlow votes to his name while Houli has polled just 12 from an extra 50 games.
CHAMPION DATA
Martin 21; Prestia 12; Houli 7; Lynch 6; Lambert 5; Edwards, Bolton 4; Ellis, Cotchin 3.
TAB CLUB ODDS
(Without Dustin Martin): $1.65 Prestia; $2.20 Houli; $13 Lambert; $26 Ellis, Cotchin; $34 Lynch; $51 Vlastuin, Edwards.
THE TIP
Dion Prestia has enjoyed his finest season — 22 games, average 27.5 disposals, but only five goals — should see him rewarded with second place behind Dustin Martin. A good one for multis.
ST KILDA
Jack Steven’s interrupted 2019 means a new Saint will take top honours this year. Enter Jack Billings, whose fate rests on his ability to cash in on a three-week purple patch early in the season.
Round 3: 32 disposals, three goals
Round 4: 34 disposals (Seb Ross likely to poll three)
Round 5: 28 disposals, two goals.
If Billings walks away from this with six or seven votes, he is going to be very tough to beat. Any less than that and it opens the door for Ross to potentially swoop.
CHAMPION DATA
Billings 11; Ross 9; Membrey, Gresham 5; Lonie 3; Bruce 2.
TAB CLUB ODDS
$1.14 Billings; $4.50 Ross; $11 Gresham; $21 Marshall; $101 Membrey.
THE TIP
Billings just, but he’s not worth touching at $1.14.
SYDNEY
For a club that likes to keep things simple, Sydney’s vote count seems exactly that this year. Luke Parker is the man to beat after coming alive in Round 8. From that point on, he is a chance to poll in nine games, which is clearly the most of any Swan. The only curveball centres around Josh Kennedy and how big his early lead is. Kennedy’s likely tally at Round 7 should be around five votes but if it is any more than that, Parker backers may have to deal with some nervous moments.
CHAMPION DATA
Parker 13; Kennedy 11; Heeney 7; Lloyd 6; Florent 5; Hewett 4; S. Reid, Franklin 3.
TAB CLUB ODDS
$1.10 Parker; $7 Kennedy; $8 Heeney; $17 Lloyd; $34 Papley; $101 Hewett.
THE TIP
This could easily come down the final round against St Kilda when Luke Parker had 28 disposals and Josh Kennedy posted 32. Each kicked two goals. Kennedy’s numbers are similar to last year’s when he only snagged six votes. Parker just, but the odds should be a lot closer.
WEST COAST
Picking a winner here is tough, with four legitimate chances in the mix. While SuperFooty has given the edge to Andrew Gaff, it will be interesting to see how he polls in the wake of last year’s suspension. If you think the umpires might look elsewhere when it comes to their votes, you have to essentially throw a blanket over Luke Shuey, Elliot Yeo and Dom Sheed. If this feels like deja vu with the Eagles, there is good reason for that. The Eagles were tipped to have a tight count last year and it proved exactly that, with Gaff winning by one vote to Yeo. In terms of career Brownlow love from the umpires, the advantage is definitely with Andrew Gaff, who has a career high of 21 votes. None of the other trio have ever polled more than 15 votes.
CHAMPION DATA
Gaff 17; Shuey 14; Yeo 11; Sheed 10; Darling 9; Hurn 7; Kennedy 3.
TAB CLUB ODDS
$2.05 Shuey; $3.25 Gaff; $4 Yeo; $6 Sheed; $51 Darling; $101 Hurn.
THE TIP
This looks an incredibly tight race between the top four chances. The least we like is the favourite Shuey, who has posted similar numbers to 2016 and ’17 when he polled 10 votes in each year. Sheed had a sensational year but is not a vote-winner (three votes last year his best). Gaff’s polling history — 16 votes (2018), nine, 21 and 17 in the past four seasons — gets him the nod over Yeo.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Many are predicting Marcus Bontempelli to win this year’s Brownlow. However, they may need to pump the breaks according to Champion Data. The number crunchers have given the edge at the Dogs to Jack Macrae, who was one of the most consistently prolific midfielders in the league this year. But highlighting just how tough this one is, the SuperFooty model has the Bont coming out on top by four votes. So where will it be decided? This is set to be one of the most intriguing battles of the night. Both Bontempelli and Macrae are rated chances of polling in the same game nine times. That is a huge number. With crossover like that, it is important to look at polling history. Bontempelli has a career high of 20 and also polled 19 votes in 2017. Macrae has a career high of 14 votes which came in 2018.
CHAMPION DATA
Macrae 24; Bontempelli 21; Dunkley 14; Hunter 6; Liberatore, Naughton 3.
TAB CLUB ODDS
$1.25 Bontempelli; $3.50 Macrae; $11 Dunkley; $101 Hunter.
THE TIP
The Marcus Bontempelli-Jackson Macrae contest will be closer than the odds suggest. Bontempelli’s kicking game attracts more attention than Macrae’s handball-based output. And “Bont’s” voting history gets him over the line narrowly (20 and 19 votes in 2016 and 17 respectively). Macrae’s best is 14 last season. Watch also for Josh Dunkley to poll well.
JAMIE TATE’S BETTING STRATEGY
For TAB club-by-club markets.
2 unit bet
Dion Prestia (Rich) at $1.65.
1 unit bets
Rory Sloane (Adel) at $13
Jeremy Cameron (GWS) at $4.75
Jaeger O’Meara (Haw) at $3
0.5 unit bets
Jarryd Lyons (Bris Lions) at $4
Andrew Gaff (WC) at $3.25
IF you like multis, maybe some or all of Dion Prestia ($1.65), Marc Murphy ($1.55), Zach Merrett ($1.03), Patrick Dangerfield ($1.05) and Michael Walters ($1.13). Five-leg multi equals $3.12.
Originally published as AFL Brownlow Medal: Who will poll the most votes at your club?