AFL Brownlow Medal: Check out the biggest locks and toughest games to predict from 2019
What happens when there are six genuine chances to poll Brownlow votes in the same game? Can you pick which way the umpires will be leaning? Check out 2019’s toughest games and biggest locks.
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Nothing is ever certain on Brownlow Medal night.
Just ask Melbourne midfielder Angus Brayshaw, who watched on from his living room as he stormed up the leaderboard to finish third last year.
Or Dane Swan, who was on mad Monday when he looked like causing a Brownlow boilover in 2007.
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And with the 2019 count set to be one of the most hotly contested in years, expect even more surprises come Monday night.
In anticipation, we’ve crunched the numbers to try and find the best three-vote locks, the games that are almost impossible to predict and the red flags to keep an eye on once the votes start rolling in.
THE BIGGEST LOCKS OF 2019
Patrick Cripps — Carlton v Brisbane (Round 12)
The stat line: 38 disposals, four goals, eight clearances
You will be hard pressed to find a more dominant game than this for the entire season. With the Blues having won just one game for the season, Cripps grabbed his team and dragged them over the line in David Teague’s first match in charge. So dominant was the Blues skipper, there would be no complaints if he was awarded all six votes.
Patrick Dangerfield — Geelong v Carlton (Round 23)
The stat line: 34 disposals, four goals, 12 clearances, 18 contested possessions
If the top end of the leaderboard is tight going into the final round, remember Dangerfield has this performance in his back pocket. He was utterly dominant both up forward and in the midfield, against a Blues outfit which had no answers.
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Tim Kelly — North Melbourne v Geelong (Round 8)
The stat line: 36 disposals, two goals, seven tackles
Everyone knew Tim Kelly was good before this game. But this was when the Brownlow buzz started to really pick up steam. Of his 36 possessions against the Kangaroos, 21 were contested.
Stephen Coniglio — GWS v Essendon (Round 1)
The stat line: 31 disposals, three goals, seven tackles
The Giants enjoyed a day out in a Round 1 smashing of Essendon. But few cashed in like Coniglio. His dominance from the opening bounce was good enough for a whopping 154 SuperCoach points. It was also the first time in his career he enjoyed more than 30 disposals and three goals in a game.
Liam Shiels — Geelong v Hawthorn (Round 18)
The stat line: 29 disposals, two goals, nine tackles, seven clearances
It was another intense clash between the Cats and Hawks but there is no doubt Liam Shiels was the difference in this match. His 29 touches were the most of any player on the field and he backed that up by hitting the scoreboard with two goals.
Dustin Martin — Richmond v Hawthorn (Round 9)
The stat line: 37 disposals, two goals, 17 contested possessions, 10 clearances
By his own lofty standards, it was a slightly slow start to the 2019 season for Dusty. But he had well and truly warmed up by Round 9, highlighted by this blistering effort against the Hawks. It was also the first time since Round 23, 2017 that Martin had amassed more than 35 touches in a game.
Jack Billings — Gold Coast v St Kilda (Round 13)
The stat line: 33 disposals, two goals, 11 tackles
A whooping 169 SuperCoach points demand attention. But just how good was Jack Billings in this Townsville clash? Without him, there is absolutely no way the Saints would have won the match. He picked up a perfect 10 in the coaches’ votes.
Luke Parker — Sydney v Hawthorn (Round 14)
The stat line: 31 disposals, one goal, 12 tackles, seven clearances
There weren’t many memorable moments from this game but Luke Parker’s best on ground performance in undeniable. When the coaches had to give their votes, Parker picked up a perfect 10 while no other player registered more than four.
Jarryd Lyons — Brisbane v North Melbourne (Round 18)
The stat line: 30 disposals, two goals, 13 clearances
While not as initially eye-catching as some other individual games, this performance by Lyons should absolutely be rewarded with three votes. He was the only player to crack the 30-disposal mark, with no other Lion having more than 24. Meanwhile, his two goals were arguably the difference between winning and losing.
THE TOUGHEST GAMES OF 2019
If you think giving out the three votes is easy, take a look at these games and see where you land,
Adelaide 15.11 (101) def Richmond 9.14 (68) — Round 13
The Crows had a field day against the Tigers, who were at this stage battling a massive injury list.
Essendon 14.12 (96) def Hawthorn 11.11 (77) — Round 13
The Bombers kicked away in the third term but the major disposal winners came from the brown and gold.
Adelaide 12.10 (82) def GWS 9.7 (61) — Round 12
This game was up for grabs late in the final term before Rory Sloane and Hugh Greenwood took big marks and kicked truly.
North Melbourne 10.8 (68) def by GWS 14.7 (91) — Round 13
It was a Giant party down in Hobart, with huge disposals numbers and key players hitting the scoreboard. Good luck!
Melbourne 13.7 (85) def Fremantle 11.5 (71) Round 14
Even though they lost, Dockers Fyfe, Hill and Walters are all in the mix for votes. But how do you split those Demons?
Essendon 9.13 (67) def by Port Adelaide 19.12 (126)
At the time, this was the low point of Essendon’s season. The Power enjoyed a day out but will the young guns be given the nod for top honours?
Sydney 18.8 (116) def West Coast 10.11 (71)
The highlight of Sydney’s year and one of the Eagles’ worst losses. Two Swans kicked bags, Lloyd brought his own footy while Parker and Rampe were brilliant.
DOES WINNING A MEDAL GUARANTEE THREE VOTES?
When trying to predict the 3-2-1 on Brownlow night, blockbuster games which award a best on ground medal should be pretty handy, right? Well, if we’ve learnt anything over the past few years it’s that you certainly can’t take these to the bank.
Last year’s Anzac Day Medal winner Adam Treloar was overlooked for the three votes for teammate Steele Sidebottom. Treloar kicked two goals and had 34 disposals while Sidebottom had 25 disposals and three goals.
The year before, Joe Daniher’s medal winning effort was rewarded with just one vote.
It isn’t just the Anzac Day Medal which punters need to keep an eye on.
In 2018 Robbie Gray won both Showdown Medals but walked away with only five Brownlow votes.
Despite 20 disposals and four goals, he was pipped by Matt Crouch, who had 35 disposals and a goal.
So who should you be on the lookout for this year? Check out the major medal winners below.
Anzac Day Medal
Scott Pendlebury
Showdown Medal x 2 (Phillip Walsh Medal)
Alex Keath and Robbie Gray
Q Clash x 2 (Marcus Ashcroft Medal)
Mitch Robinson and Charlie Cameron
Derby x 2 (Glendinning — Allan Medal)
Shannon Hurn and Brad Sheppard
Sydney Derby x 2 (Brett Kirk Medal)
Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper
Queen’s Birthday
Adam Treloar
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Originally published as AFL Brownlow Medal: Check out the biggest locks and toughest games to predict from 2019