AFL 2022: Mick McGuane’s predicted ladder and season preview
The AFL season is here. One South Australian team is chasing a flag while the other is out to avoid the wooden spoon. Where will they finish?
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As cliche as it sounds, the challenge of predicting this year’s ladder has never been harder.
Melbourne’s dramatic rise up the ranks last year shocked the football public but now Simon Goodwin’s team looks like they’ll be the team to beat once more in 2022.
The Western Bulldogs will have a point to prove while Port Adelaide, Brisbane and Geelong still have the weaponry.
Consider all that before looking at risers Sydney, Fremantle and the force that is Richmond.
AFL expert Mick McGuane pores over all 18 teams and predicts how the season will play out.
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1. MELBOURNE
If the Demons are hungry, they will be hard to beat again this year. As talented a group as they are, what separated them from the rest of the competition last year was their synergy and cohesion in applying team defence. Their ability to restrict the opposition ball movement was a highlight and there is no reason why they can’t lead the competition again. If opposition sides want to stand a chance against Melbourne, they need to put Jake Lever in the gun. Defenders pick up forwards but in this case you need a forward to play on Lever as a competitive starting point and restrict his intercept marking. As silly as it sounds, there’s continued growth in Christian Petracca’s game. If he can tidy up his kicking going inside 50, he will go to another level.
2. BRISBANE
The Lions play a simple but effective brand of footy built around contest and territory and it gets them results. They are an outstanding stoppage team because they generate scores from their clearances. Brisbane boasts a potent midfield led by Jarryd Lyons, Lachie Neale and Dayne Zorko, while the arrival of recruit Darcy Fort will create competition with Oscar McInerney for the No.1 ruck position. The Lions have made the Gabba a fortress during the past two years – winning 19 of 22 games – and the chemistry of their forward line is often undersold. The biggest challenge after the retirement of Grant Birchall is to shore up the final spots in the back six behind Harris Andrews, Marcus Adams, Brandon Starcevich and Daniel Rich. Callum Ah-Chee and Keidean Coleman are the two players most likely looked at.
3. PORT ADELAIDE
There is some pressure on coach Ken Hinkley this year, but the Power are a winning team that I can’t see dropping off. Hinkley also has an ideal opportunity to revolutionise the forward 50. Could we see a four-headed monster from Port this year? Charlie Dixon, Jeremy Finlayson, Todd Marshall and Mitch Georgiades are all different types of key forwards and are capable of playing together due to their athleticism and game awareness. Together, they could seriously stretch any opposition defence and help the side convert more scores from their territory dominance. I’d also like to see some next-generation players injected into the midfield more often and Zak Butters, Connor Rozee, Karl Amon and Xavier Duursma are ready. There is room for improvement with what the Power do with their ball movement, but their strong clearance and contest game is of a top-four standard.
4. SYDNEY
Expect continued growth and improvement from the Swans’ second-to-fifth-year players this season. The likes of Justin McInerney, Nick Blakey, Chad Warner, Dylan Stephens, James Rowbottom and Ollie Florent have plenty of upside and the Swans have found the right mix surrounding them with some experienced talent. Logan McDonald is also showing great growth as a player and is a real worker in attack who complements Lance Franklin well. Sydney also has high hopes for fellow forward Joel Amartey this year after some eye-catching performances last season. The one area Sydney can tidy up is its scores from stoppages differential. An improvement in that area should help ensure they are top-four bound.
5. WESTERN BULLDOGS
The Bulldogs haven’t finished top-four since 2010 and I’m not sure they can break that drought this season despite playing off in last year’s Grand Final. They have a deep midfield led by arguably the most impactful player in the competition in Marcus Bontempelli and Mr Consistent, Jack Macrae. My concern is the lack of support for Aaron Naughton, who looks in magnificent nick but can’t do it alone in attack. Josh Bruce kicked 48 goals last year but is out this season with a knee injury. One of Tim O’Brien, Tim English or Josh Schache has to step up and help fill the void because I’ve got serious concerns about youngster Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, who has the talent but doesn’t seem to have the work rate to match. I just hope the penny drops that talent alone won’t get it done. Luke Beveridge will play him in the VFL if he doesn’t want to do the work.
6. GEELONG
The Cats greats of Joel Selwood, Patrick Dangerfield and Tom Hawkins might be ageing, but they are still capable of leading the way. The side’s defence is rock-solid, particularly with the return of Tom Stewart who was sorely missed at the end of last year. Geelong has made finals the past six years but if they want to really challenge for a flag they need to find a better balance between tempo footy and putting speed on the game. Slow ball movement protects turnover, but it does not help the forward half of the ground. Twin towers Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron kicked 101 goals between them last season and could do even more damage this year on the back of faster ball movement and a flawless pre-season from Cameron. Shaun Higgins and Luke Dahlhaus could help the Cats’ cause with really strong campaigns, but the jury’s out as whether they are in Chris Scott’s best 22.
7. RICHMOND
They missed finals for the first time since 2016 last season, but expect the Tigers to be back playing in September. Last year’s earlier finish allowed for a reset with a strong pre-Christmas training block. It will also bring a renewed hunger into the squad. Dustin Martin is firing and Dion Prestia looks as fit as he has been in years. Noah Balta’s move forward to create a three-tall attack alongside Jack Riewoldt and Tom Lynch will challenge opposition defences. The evolution for Richmond will come from more midfield time for the likes of Jack Ross, Jack Graham and Shai Bolton to take the reliance off veteran warrior Trent Cotchin and superstar Martin. It’s time for a bit of a changing of the guard.
8. ESSENDON
The Bombers have the ability to be a consistent finals contender for a few years on the back of a deep midfield group. If Zach Merrett, Darcy Parish, Dylan Shiel, Andy McGrath and Jye Caldwell all have an injury-free run, watch out. Developing ruckman Sam Draper is ready to explode this year to complement this group. Essendon is a little undersized down back, but Jordan Ridley is a strong leader back there who can fill his wardrobe with some more All-Australian blazers. The concern is the forward line. Peter Wright simply has to step up and kick at least 30 or 40 goals. Jake Stringer is a game changer but is he slightly underdone and Harrison Jones is showing great signs but is still a developing tall. Finding the right mix with the small forwards is also key, especially given Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti will miss the start of the year.
9. GWS
Toby Greene could well cost the Giants a finals spot this year as their most important player sits out the first five games suspended. GWS plays Sydney, Richmond, Gold Coast, Fremantle and Melbourne in those opening weeks. If they’re 1-4 after that – which is a real possibility – it’s a long way back. Greene leaves a huge hole in a forward line which has question marks over talls Harry Himmelberg, Jesse Hogan and Jake Riccardi. If that trio cannot consistently hit the scoreboard, the Giants will become too reliant on their midfielders kicking goals. The big positive of the off-season has been Stephen Coniglio, who looks healthy and has got zig and zag back. Team defence must be a priority for GWS this year because you can’t be a legitimate top-eight contender without it and their work without the ball was substandard last year.
10. ST KILDA
Forget about talent. Pressure is St Kilda’s one great hope. The Saints players must realise that it is their pressure without the football that will determine whether they play finals this year or not. Last year they were simply too inconsistent when it comes to their defensive actions. The side’s point of difference is its forward line, where Max King, Tim Membrey and Rohan Marshall form a three-pronged attack that creates headaches for any opposition. At their feet are Dan Butler, Jack Higgins, Ryan Byrnes and a bit of Jade Gresham – who are all dangerous. The Saints face a footy audit in the first five weeks with games against Collingwood, Fremantle, Richmond, Hawthorn and Gold Coast. If they can bank a run of early wins, they could play finals. Consistency with their effort is key, because without it, they will continue to lose games against opposition around them.
11. FREMANTLE
The returning key personnel down back will give the Dockers a boost this year. Alex Pearce and Joel Hamling were sorely missed for large periods of last year but their returns will provide much needed support to Luke Ryan and help stiffen up the defence. Fremantle defended opposition turnovers poorly last year and also allowed opposition sides to score from their inside-50s far too often, which will be key focuses to fix this season. At the other end, Michael Walters and Nat Fyfe must spend more time forward to help keep the scoreboard ticking over. The Dockers have to back in their next generation of Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw to get the job done in the midfield.
12. CARLTON
The Blues look set to take on a very different look under new coach Michael Voss this year. They have already shown great improvement in pre-season with their intensity at the contest – both at winning the ball and closing down space quickly when their opponents win it. It appears to be a much more combative game style than we have been used to. The most important recruit is going to be George Hewett, who has not only shown his ability through the midfield but will also bring a ruthless accountability to the team. Zac Williams and Adam Saad behind the ball provide great counter-attack but must continue to work on maximising their kicking, while Mitch McGovern has reinvented himself in defence. Can Charlie Curnow get back to his 2018 form? If so, the Carlton forward line will be menacing. Don’t be surprised to see Sam Walsh make an earlier than expected return, either.
13. COLLINGWOOD
The Magpies must attack the game with the ball this year. Quick and direct and use the corridor – taking risks with their ball movement should be their mantra. In their first practice match against Hawthorn, they surged forward and trusted their forwards to mark it or create a contest, which was refreshing to see. The forwards need to provide that contest, though. Against GWS in the second pre-season match, Mason Cox was out-competed by a much smaller Lachie Ash. It poses the question of where Cox’s career is at and what Collingwood’s best forward mix looks like. The hope entering this year centres around the talented young players getting their chance to shine. Nick Daicos and Finlay Macrae are part of the next wave and need to be given ample on-ball opportunities alongside mainstay Taylor Adams, with Steele Sidebottom pushing out to a wing and Scott Pendlebury playing a new role in defence. Expect some improvement this year, but finals aren’t on the cards.
14. WEST COAST
The Eagles are going down a slippery slide. After finishing fifth in 2020, they placed ninth last year and look set for a further decline this season. There’s more questions than answers about West Coast, who have a host of injury issues and still do not know if key forward Jack Darling will play any role this season. Luke Shuey, their classiest midfielder, continues to break down with hamstring injuries and returning forward Willie Rioli is not AFL-fit. The club produced a pair of underwhelming pre-season match performances ahead of what shapes as a rebuilding year. However, while the talent might be missing, there is no reason why the Eagles cannot improve their pressure and work rate. That purely comes down to attitude. You don’t have to be experienced to play desperate.
15. HAWTHORN
The Hawks finished last season in a blaze of glory, scoring three wins and two draws from their last six games. But it’s hard to know what to expect under new coach Sam Mitchell. Improved personnel availability should help, with key defensive cogs James Sicily, Will Day and Denver Grainger-Barras being missed last year. I love how draftee Josh Ward goes about his football and he will complement an existing same-same midfield group of Tom Mitchell, James Worpel and Jaeger O’Meara quite well. There are problems in the forward line, though, which is still largely young and developing. It is for that reason that the experienced trio of Chad Wingard, Luke Breust and Jack Gunston should be based almost exclusively in attack, to teach the next generation the tricks of the trade.
16. ADELAIDE
The Crows are still in a transition period, but there is some hope looking forward. The recruitment of Jordan Dawson is a big one. Adelaide needed better field kickers and Dawson can certainly use the footy. He also comes from a club with a strong and accountable culture in Sydney, and the Crows will be sure to lean on him for leadership in that space and to challenge teammates as they look to build a strong culture of their own under coach Matthew Nicks. It is time to shine for the next wave of talent. Riley Thilthorpe and Darcy Fogarty need to step up in attack, especially with Taylor Walker missing the start of the year. Josh Rachele is an exciting first-year player who should be given plenty of opportunities, while Matt Crouch’s return this year will help a midfield that is missing Rory Laird for the first month of the season.
17. NORTH MELBOURNE
The Kangaroos have a few holes, none more so than the void left by Ben Cunnington as he continues his cancer battle. Someone will get an opportunity to step up and that someone might well be No.1 draft pick Jason Horne-Francis who has already shown he can be the midfield bull that Cunnington is. The rest of the on-ball brigade of Jy Simpkin, Jed Anderson and Hugh Greenwood is a bit pedestrian. However, Tarryn Thomas has enormous upside and breakaway speed, while Tom Powell is only getting better. The biggest area of improvement for North Melbourne to climb up the ladder centres around their team defence. In their first practice match against Melbourne, they were all at sea. Having ranked 18th in the competition without the ball last year, it is an area that needs drastic work.
18. GOLD COAST
Hopes for the Suns sunk when Ben King went down with an ACL injury during pre-season. King kicked 47 goals last year – more than twice as many majors as any other teammate. That is an enormous hole to fill. Former defender Jack Lukosius has shown promise in his new role in attack, while recruits Mabior Chol and Levi Casboult provide marking targets. However, the small forwards will also need to step up. Izak Rankine has to bridge the gap between his best and worst because he goes missing for huge minutes within a game. Down back, Charlie Ballard is an All-Australian in waiting. The Touk Miller-led midfield is developing, but letting Hugh Greenwood leave at the end of last year looks like being a monumental stuff-up. It is all about being hard enough for long enough for the Suns this year, who have the talent but need to deliver more. If they don’t, decisions will need to be made on the coach – especially with an available Alistair Clarkson on the menu.
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