Mick Malthouse: The teams that will shape the AFL’s top eight in a Covid-affected 2022 season
Mick Malthouse raised eyebrows when he tipped Essendon to win the flag. Now he’s boldly predicted Carlton to rise quickly under Michael Voss, even saying a premiership tilt this year is possible.
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Stranger things have happened.
In the past six years, Richmond has finished 13th and 12th and won three premierships in between.
The Western Bulldogs finished 14th in 2014, and 13th in 2018, with a premiership in the middle and a grand final playoff last year.
In 2018, Melbourne finished fourth, prompting all to believe it was staging a race to the premiership the following year. The Demons finished 17th in 2019. The cup didn’t come until last year.
So what does all this tell you?
Basically, that the fundamentals for having a good season are intangible.
So often is comes down to luck. Luck with injuries to key players, and, this year, luck with Covid.
But, as the saying goes: necessity is the mother of invention, and quite often when a player is forced to move into a new role it refreshes his game and transforms the team.
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Bayley Fritsch was a good player, but he evolved into a very important player for Melbourne’s scoring last year when Tom McDonald was injured and out of form, and Ben Brown was taking time to settle into the forward line.
Fritsch became the club’s leading goal kicker with 59 goals, including six in the grand final.
He is just one example, but it highlights how unpredictable a season can be with so many factors to take into consideration.
The club that could make the most improvement this year – one that hasn’t won a final since 2013 – is Carlton.
New coach Michael Voss will toughen the team up no doubt, and get them playing a far more physical game, which is the exact factor it needs to move from 13th in to the eight.
The Blues have had ample time in the last few years to draw on the draft (finishing 16th, 18th, 16th, 11th and 13th) and to pick the eyes out of free agents. Now is the time to capitalise on this.
They have a monster sized key-forward in Harry McKay – 204cm 104kg – with a booming left-foot kick.
Coupled with Sam Walsh, Charlie Curnow, Adam Cerra (Fremantle), Patrick Cripps and Jacob Weitering, Carlton has undoubted ability.
Big scoring capacity, a backline that is strong and attacking, the Blues have the chance to build a team that could be a worthy participant in finals for the next five to six years. No excuses.
With the right belief, they could emulate Richmond or Melbourne by breaking into the eight and going all the way – this year even.
A young team that had a taste of finals last year, Essendon experienced important growth in 2021.
But it needs its players to stand up and have similar, if not better, seasons than last year to go further in 2022.
Ben Rutten has at his disposal a wonderful list of players.
At season’s start, Jake Stringer will be close to 28 years of age. He is the Bombers’
barometer for how the mids and forwards structure up. His cameos in the middle and work on the forward line make him extremely hard to match up on.
All Australian midfielders Zach Merrett and Darcy Parish give the Bombers a
platform to work off, with 205cm ruckman Sam Draper the underpin.
They have a young aggressive backline led by Jordan Ridley and Jayden Laverde, and, with the potential for Michael Hurley to return from injury, that division looks after itself.
Essendon’s forward line is quite diverse. Its only missing link – getting Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti fit and back in the line-up.
The Bombers are an exciting running machine, and with all engines firing at once, I believe they are the team to beat this year.
One team that could fall off the pace this season is Geelong.
The Cats have a distinct home ground advantage which sets them up each year to
make the eight. Finals are a different story.
Critics have said for years that their ageing list will, at some stage, collapse, but the Cats have been a model of consistency under Chris Scott, only once missing the finals in 11 years.
That stability comes from Joel Selwood as a long-term captain, and Tom Hawkins as a regular leading goal kicker. Patrick Dangerfield has finished prominently in the best-and-fairest every year.
Geelong played off in the grand final two years ago, leading halfway through the third quarter. And it was competitive last year until the preliminary final, in which it has been revealed many players were ill.
But there does come a time when an older list can no longer sustain what is required to stretch for a flag.
I still have the Cats in the eight, but ageing bodies generally don’t get better, fitter, stronger, or faster as a season wears on.
I’m mystified by two clubs – Richmond and St Kilda.
I can’t help but wonder if Dustin Martin isn’t on song, just how well will the Tigers play?
For a team with so much recent success, there is so much unknown heading into the season. And I think the reason we can’t get a gauge on Richmond is because a lot of its moving parts are starting to rust.
Are Trent Cotchin and Kane Lambert still Mr Reliables? Will injury and age take a toll on Shane Edwards and Dion Prestia?
The Tigers need Liam Baker and Shai Bolton to step up through the midfield, but there is no doubting their rucks – Toby Nankervis befittingly named joint captain.
If they play Noah Bolta forward to provide extra stability, that changes Richmond’s DNA. It switches the dynamics of a mobile forward line into one that must mark the football, with three tall targets.
How that plays out will be interesting.
Technically, the Tigers should make finals, but I don’t think Richmond and St Kilda can share the eight.
St Kilda has all the ingredients of a good side. But it has made the final eight just once in the past 10 years – that is an abysmal record.
Further frustration for coach Brett Ratten is that when the Saints are on song they look like world beaters.
But there are too many players who pick and choose when to contest the tough footy, and they still can’t close down teams through the corridor which generally comes about though lack of hard work and care.
They are more than compensated by the brilliance of Max King in the forward line, and adequately covered in the ruck by Rowan Marshall.
The Saints backline is OK, but, just as it started to make inroads, young Hunter Clark gets injured.
Dan Hannebery is still on the sidelines. Seb Ross looks good, then doesn’t. Bradley Hill continues to get the cheap footy instead of the hard ball, and it all leads us to ask – is St Kilda the real deal or just teasing us?
Port Adelaide will potentially vacate a spot in the eight this year.
It feels like I’m treading on dangerous ground here. Having a big home ground advantage has helped secure enough wins to play finals in recent years, but the fact is that Port’s midfield is terribly one paced.
Yes, it has Brownlow medallist Ollie Wines, but as a big possession getter he doesn’t deliver as well as other big-name midfielders. Robbie Gray is human, and showing it with a loss of pace. Travis Boak is a good footballer who goes missing in the big games, like Charlie Dixon up forward.
When Zak Butters, Xavier Duursma and Connor Rozee take over the midfield, then Port will find itself in a position to recapture a spot in the eight.
Ken Hinkley has got his team into a preliminary final on three occasions but hasn’t been able to take them that step further. I’m not sure even finals will be on the cards this season.
New coaching regimes for both Hawthorn and Collingwood, but it’s hard to see too much ladder movement initially.
Melbourne and the Bulldogs played off last year, so on talent alone they each should make the top four. But the Demons could learn from the Dogs post-premiership performance, that nothing is a given.
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Originally published as Mick Malthouse: The teams that will shape the AFL’s top eight in a Covid-affected 2022 season
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