AFL 2022: North Melbourne sought external help with its salary cap and 2021 draft picks as boss Ben Amarfio adopts Moneyball rebuild strategy
North Melbourne chief executive Ben Amarfio ticked off a pair of external experts to consult on the Roos salary cap and on draft day as part of a ‘Moneyball’-style rebuild.
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North Melbourne paid an external consultant to help assess how “data and analytics” could help the club choose the right players at last year’s national draft.
The Roos were rocked in May with the shock resignations of list manager Glenn Luff, veteran national recruiting manager Mark Finnigan and national recruiting officer Ben Birthisel after they lost faith in senior football officials.
The Herald Sun can also reveal the Roos hired former AFL total player payments policeman Ken Wood to help with the club’s salary cap.
Chief executive Ben Amarfio signed off on both decisions.
Sources say he wants to employ a “Moneyball” theory to help plot the club’s rebuild.
That is understood to be tied to the numbers of games players have played.
On average the Roos have fielded the third-youngest team this year, with only Essendon and Adelaide younger.
In a statement on Monday night the Roos confirmed both external appointments.
The Herald Sun asked the club whether it had an external analysis completed on the 2021 national draft.
“Our former GM of Strategy Laura Kane invited an outside consultant to show how they can bring data and analytics capability to assist decision-making in our football department,” the club said.
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It’s understood the information received by the “outside consultant” was not used by the club when it selected Jason Horne-Francis, Josh Goater, Paul Curtis, Miller Bergman and Jackson Archer
The Roos said Wood was involved in a separate project.
“We engaged Ken as a consultant after he left the AFL as the owner of the League’s Total Player Payments,” the club said.
“We invited him to provide advice, guidance and validation to our GM of Finance and Administration Chris Simmonds and our then GM of Football Brady Rawlings about our total player payments processes.
“He provided a detailed report at the end of his consultancy period.”
Wood departed the AFL after almost 20 years of service in late 2020.
Talk of North Melbourne seeking help from outsiders has been swirling in AFL recruiting circles recently.
Wood was hired to “provide advice, guidance and validation” for the club’s salary cap.
It’s understood about 70 staff have quit the club in recent years, many while Amarfio has been at the helm.
That includes the sudden departures of Luff, Birthisel and, after 17 years of service, Finnigan, who left for Hawthorn.
Luff had arrived at the Roos with 20 years of experience combining data and analytics as the senior AFL analyst at Champion Data.
Football boss Brady Rawlings was aware the third party had been engaged but it’s understood not everyone in the list management team was told.
Carey: Time for Noble to go
—Will Hogan
North Melbourne legend Wayne Carey says the club has no choice but to remove senior coach David Noble this year.
Carey, who captained the club to two premierships, said Geoff Walsh would not baulk the hard decisions which need to be made on the senior coaching position based on the team’s terrible results this season.
Hawthorn premiership mastermind Alastair Clarkson would be No.1 target on the replacement wishlist, but it remains unclear if the coaching legend has any interest in returning to Arden St.
But the changes could be more widespread as chief executive Ben Amarfio is also under pressure following the departure of three Roos’ recruiters mid-season.
The Kangaroos lost to Geelong by 112 points on Saturday night and managed only 12 inside 50s after quarter time in their biggest backwards step of the season.
The Roos have become the first team in AFL/VFL history to lose 11 straight games by more than 47 points.
It has prompted renewed calls to give North Melbourne a priority pick on top of recent high selections to welcome Jason Horne-Francis (pick one), Will Phillips (pick two) and Luke Davies-Uniacke (four) in recent years.
Carey said the Roos were paying the price for “some really poor decisions which have been made over a long period of time” and had hit “rock bottom”.
He said the club had to make a senior coaching change for 2023.
“He (Noble) won’t be there,” Carey said on Triple M.
“Results have dictated that. It is pretty plain for everyone to see.
“I think his messaging for me is starting to become confusing and if it is confusing for me listening then it is going to be confusing for the players.
“There is no way he can survive.”
St Kilda great Leigh Montagna agreed. “They need a circuit-breaker. A number of things need to change,” Montagna said.
Carey said respected footy administrator Walsh, who helped make changes at Carlton last year, was the right man to lead the review.
“Everything has got to be a winner from this point on and that is why – with this review with Geoff Walsh – they have got the right guy in there who will call a spade a shovel,” Carey said.
“He has to hit them straight between the eyes with whatever he finds.”
Former Fremantle and St Kilda coach Ross Lyon said the club must help support Noble in these tough times.
“I feel for David Noble here,” Lyon said.
“The argument is could they be doing much better? Everyone is looking for some green shoots.
“There just isn’t enough hope for the mess that is there and it hasn’t really recovered since the noise that was around the Brisbane game.
“It is a tough business if you haven’t got the talent and he is going into a gunfight with a knife.
“I do feel for him a bit and if they have made the decision that he’s not going to be there they are better off going to him and say ‘Mate, this hasn’t worked, we are starting our hunt (for our replacement), what do you want to do with this?
“’We are worried about your health’ and we have seen it with Mark Neeld before. Don Pyke, Rhyce Shaw. It can get hot in the kitchen.”
Gun Roo can’t play in the VFL: Jenkins
North Melbourne has been urged not to play No.1 draft pick Jason Horne-Francis in the VFL as the crushing nature of the club’s weekend loss to Geelong was laid bare.
Coach David Noble said after the 112-point loss to Geelong that Horne-Francis might have to return through the state league side after two weeks out with suspension.
The loss of Aaron Hall (quad) and Kayne Turner (concussion) might force Noble’s hand.
The Roos’ seven scoring shots were the least since Champion Data started recording statistics in 1999, with the team having won two quarters since round 10.
The 13 inside 50s after quarter time were also the second-fewest in the final three quarters of a game since 1999, with Melbourne’s 10 in round 16, 2013 the least in that time.
If Horne-Francis did take on Collingwood it would be his first game in a month – since eight possessions against GWS.
Former Adelaide and Geelong forward Josh Jenkins told SEN Radio it was the wrong play: “You just open yourself up to a lot of stuff on the periphery. Handle the issues with him from Monday to Friday and allow the kid to continue to play AFL footy. Playing him at 11AM at Arden Street on a Saturday morning is just going to make him more upset.‘’ he said.
“Some will query whether with decisions like that you may as well just drop him off at the departures lounge and send him on his way.”
The AFL said on Sunday it would work with both clubs on their preferences to avoid another jumper clash after Geelong wore its indigenous strip in a decision that confused fans given the similarity between teams.
The AFL is happy for clubs to wear their indigsnous jumpers but in future both clubs might wear that jumper to avoid the clear clash that was apparent to TV viewers.
How does Noble survive as North go from bad to worse
—Scott Gullan
It’s generally not a good recipe.An under siege coach with a struggling team travelling down to Kardinia Park in the depths of winter. The last time it happened, the coach was sacked the following day.The late Dean Bailey brought Melbourne down the highway in 2011 and departed after a 186-point loss, the second biggest in AFL/VFL history.There were some doomsday types who would have Googled that game to refresh the memory ahead of David Noble’s North Melbourne taking on the Cats on Saturday night.So is history going to repeat?Well, Noble certainly didn‘t improve his case for keeping his job. The question is how much damage did he do?With consultant Geoff Walsh sitting in the coaches‘ box to get a closer look at what was going on, the disgraceful second half was probably not what Noble wanted the man, who will decide if he survives, to see.
To be fair the Roos were down two players early in the game and halfway through the second quarter they‘d been competitive enough to keep it watchable. But seven goals to one in the third quarter had the alarm bells ringing. North then scored one point in the final quarter as the Cats went on their merry way to push the margin to an embarrassing 112-points. It was Noble‘s worst loss of the season.
How has it got this bad? That‘s the question Walsh will be asking. It’s hard to see what Noble is trying to do from a game plan perspective because his team resembled witches hats in the second half. Then you look for effort and pressure. Didn‘t see much of that.
Talent wise they are clearly inferior to a side like Geelong but 13 straight losses is in Fitzroy at their worst territory. And where is the development?
On all available evidence it is unlikely that North will win another game this season. If that happens Noble simply can‘t keep his job.
If that‘s what Walsh comes up with and the Kangaroos board agrees then it all becomes about timing. Do they do it now to give the players some breathing space and potential spark of life under someone who isn‘t as stressed as Noble? Sitting on their hands might do even more damage given Arden St is already not a very enticing place for a prospective coach. The optimistic view is that Hawthorn were rubbish when Alistair Clarkson took over and look what happened there. That was a recipe for success but not even Clarko would look at his former club now and think even he couldn‘t pull this mess out of what is becoming a deeper, deeper hole.
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Originally published as AFL 2022: North Melbourne sought external help with its salary cap and 2021 draft picks as boss Ben Amarfio adopts Moneyball rebuild strategy
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