The Melbourne suburbs that will be hardest hit when JobKeeper ends

When JobKeeper payments end in a fortnight, Melburnians will be hit hardest. See the areas it will bite.

Workers in Melbourne will be the most exposed to the end of JobKeeper in a fortnight, according to a new analysis of Victoria’s reliance on the $100bn wage subsidy scheme.

About 1.1 million workers are still supported by the subsidies, with economists warning as many as 250,000 Australians may lose their jobs when the support is switched off.

Melbourne’s lengthy lockdown last year increased the state’s dependence on JobKeeper, and new data shows that as of December, an estimated 9702 businesses in the Melbourne electorate employing about 29,861 workers were still accessing the scheme.

The analysis of Treasury postcode data, conducted by Labor, estimated there were another 20,185 workers across 6559 businesses in the inner-city electorate of Macnamara who relied on JobKeeper at the end of 2020.

A man waits outside Centrelink in South Melbourne. Picture: David Geraghty

Opposition treasury spokesman Jim Chalmers warned the end of JobKeeper was coming too quickly for Victoria’s economy, particularly after a slow start to the vaccine rollout.

“Getting either the vaccine rollout or economic response wrong is damaging, but getting both wrong simultaneously could be devastating for ­Victoria’s recovery,” he said.

“Nobody is saying that JobKeeper should go on forever, but it should be tailored and targeted to what’s actually going on in Victoria’s economy.”

Josh Frydenberg has argued Australia’s economic recovery is “world-leading”, and targeted support will continue for “sectors and regions” doing it tough.

While 1.54 million people were on JobKeeper in December, the Treasurer said last month almost 600,000 people had transitioned off the scheme by January.

He said the government expected the “overwhelming majority” of Australians receiving the wage subsidy to remain in their jobs after March.

According to Treasury, there were 5318 businesses in the CBD still using JobKeeper in December, followed by postcodes 3029 and 3030, home to Hoppers Crossing and Werribee, with 3018 and 2710 recipients respectively.

Treasury deputy secretary Jenny Wilkinson said last month “in order of 100,000 people” were expected to lose their jobs or move to other work after JobKeeper ended, while top economist Professor Jeff Borland estimated the number could be between 125,000 to 250,000.

KPMG chief economist Brendan Rynne said Victoria’s “much longer shutdown” meant JobKeeper was widely used, especially by CBD hospitality and retail businesses.

“Underperforming businesses that have been held up by government support are going to find it difficult to stand on their own two feet, and we are going to see some business closures,” he said.

Casual employee Amy Stewart at Arthur's Seat Eagle Gondola. Picture : Nicki Connolly

Arthurs Seat Eagle general manager Elle Hilton said a strong alternative would be needed to support the local tourism industry if JobKeeper was not extended.

The aerial gondola system, which employs staff including Amy Stewart, is a huge drawcard on the Mornington Peninsula.

“Closer consultation with industry and operators on the ground could go a long way in creating more tangible opportunities and benefits for Australia’s tourism industry,’’ Ms Hilton said.

Originally published as The Melbourne suburbs that will be hardest hit when JobKeeper ends