Fling or flop? Adelaide’s long-term weather forecast for spring 2024 according to Darren Ray

Will it be blue skies or stormy clouds this spring? Adelaide weather expert Darren Ray reveals his long-term forecast and what it all means.

Dust off the T-shirts and shorts – but don’t forget to pack the brolly this spring.

South Australia is heading for “unusually tropical” weather, with warm temperatures and wet conditions for the next three months, according to advertiser.com.au and The Advertiser’s new weather watcher, Darren Ray.

In the first of his seasonal forecasts, which will be issued at the start of every spring, summer, autumn and winter, the respected climatologist meteorologist says we can look forward to days that are a little warmer than average.

“While conditions have been on the drier side so far this year, South Australia looks to be on the receiving end of increasingly wetter, warmish and, at times, tropical spring conditions this year,” said Mr Ray, a former Bureau of Meteorology expert who now works for the Department of Environment and Water.

Meteorologist Darren Ray among the springtime cherry blossoms at Penfold Park. Picture: Dean Martin

What does the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mean for SA weather?

As spring brings it’s time of change and new life – with blooming flowers and budding trees and farmers hoping for rains to finish their crops – the state’s weather pattern comes under the strong influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole climate indicator to Australia’s northwest.

“While the strength of the influence varies, outlook modelling has been indicating for a while that spring will see a shift towards a negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) pattern in the tropical Indian Ocean,” said Mr Ray, who is bringing 22 years of expertise to his seasonal weather forecasts.

Friends India Stevens, 15, and Milla Bament-Green, 15, among spring almond blossom. Picture: Keryn Stevens

Will it be wet or warm this spring in SA?

He said that would see “more moisture available for cloud and rainfall across South Australia” resulting in “wetter-than-average conditions and milder temperatures”.

But climate change is also playing its part in spring’s forecast, bringing average or above-average temperatures.

“Warming from climate change is part of this picture as spring is the time of the year with the strongest warming trend in temperatures in Australia,” Mr Ray said.

How much rain did Adelaide get this winter?

Winter provided a drier and warmer-than-average entry to spring, he said.

“Adelaide typically receives about 200mm of winter rainfall but has had about 180mm this winter. This pattern of winter rainfall about 70-90 per cent of the average is reflected around agricultural regions, though pastoral areas have been wetter,” he said.

“While I have heard complaints of a long, cold winter, temperatures overall have been warmer than average and sunnier than typical. Mid-July in particular felt very wet, windy and cold but overall winter temperatures were about one degree warmer than average.”

That came off the back of an unusual autumn pattern in tropical Indian Ocean waters, with temperatures that were cooler than average leading to less moisture for rainfall across South Australia.

Weekly SST Anomalies for the Season (12 Weeks). Source: Physical Sciences Laboratory

“This pattern gradually weakened through winter but still led to warmer and drier than average conditions for agricultural districts of the state,” he said.

“Every spring now is going to be warmer than average, it’s just a matter of how much warmer.”

How much rain to expect in SA this spring

Mr Ray said September would bring “near average” rainfall for the state but the influence of La Nina in the Pacific Ocean – which is predicted in “most but not all” of the modelling – would make October and particularly November wetter than average. Spring totals are expected to be 20 to 30 per cent above average.

Spring rains are expected in October and November. Picture: File

Mr Ray said those rainier conditions this spring would present “particular challenges”.

“Higher risk of fungal diseases in the garden and vineyard, but lower risk of heatwaves and bushfire leading into summer,” he said.

“Flood events are also a bit more likely than usual, typically roughly every four to six weeks due to bursts of tropical activity along the equator – look out for the last week of September and mid-November.”

Meet The Advertiser’s new weather watcher

Meet Darren Ray, SA’s weather watcher whose long-range forecasts are going to help us predict whether we’re heading for blue skies or stormy clouds.

The respected climatologist meteorologist is bringing his 22 years of expertise to a new, seasonal weather series that will examine whether South Australians need to rug up or cool down for the months ahead.

In the lead up to every spring, summer, autumn and winter, Mr Ray will analyse the latest global climate indicators and outlook modelling to shape his quarterly forecasts, which will appear on advertiser.com.au and in The Advertiser.

Darren Ray shares his weather predictions for this spring. Picture: Dean Martin

“I love the big picture – seeing all the big-scale interconnections going on around the globe causing all these chaotic patterns,” says Mr Ray.

“I’ve got that sort of big picture-thinking brain and love the beauty of seeing it all churning away, watching the cloud patterns unfolding on the satellite pictures. All the swirls and whirls and all of that stuff playing out, it’s beautiful.”

Over the years, the environmental scientist has felt great satisfaction is seeing his predictions come to fruition.

“Absolutely, it’s definitely satisfying,” says Mr Ray, who is studying for his PhD in the paleo – or historic – climate of Australia dating back 2000 years.

“Over the 20 years I’ve been working in this area, there’s been some significant understandings that have been developed. It’s been a journey understanding all those different factors – El Nino, La Nina, Indian Ocean Diopole.”

Mr Ray uses his own expertise in the fluctuations and unpredictability of climate change to help shape his forecasts. “Everything is affected by climate change,” he says.

As the son of an airforce family, Mr Ray spent his childhood moving around the tropical, humid climes of Brisbane, Darwin and Singapore but settled in Adelaide’s northern suburbs when he was at high school.

“I’ve ended up in the Adelaide Hills, I love that Hills lifestyle. Being able to live in the midst of beautiful hills and be 20 minutes from the city,” says the meteorologist, who says Adelaide’s drier climate and four seasons saw it rate highly in a recent survey of perfect climates.

“I’ve lived in a whole bunch of very humid places but I’ve found now that I like the dry heat and I love the cooler climate of the Hills, cosying up in front of the fire in winter.”