Matthew Abraham: South Australians do take a perverse delight in making political parties walk backwards into office

For more than a year the polls have been certain about how this election will play out. And then suddenly that changed, writes Matthew Abraham.

Proper earthquakes are pretty rare in South Australia. So are election-winning landslides.

The last major earthquake to rock and roll Adelaide happened almost 68 years ago this week, a 5.6 magnitude shakedown at 3.40am on March 1, 1954.

They say we’re overdue for another quake and its starting to look like the state is overdue for another political landslide come March 19.

For more than a year, the few opinion polls tipped a super tight election contest, with the smart money favouring a minority Liberal or Labor Government, cobbled together with the backing of one or more independents, depending on which party buys the biggest pizza.

All roads seemed to be heading this way. Until Saturday, when the car left the bitumen and rolled over in the top paddock.

The latest Newspoll published in yesterday’s Weekend Australian shows Labor pulling away from the Marshall Government, with a two-party preferred vote of 53 per cent to the Liberals 47pc. If it holds up in all the right seats on election day, this hefty six-point lead will see Labor leader Peter Malinauskas form a majority government.

Premier Steven Marshall at Felixstow Reserve where he announced funds to restore wildlife to the area. Picture: Brenton Edwards

To use one of Premier Steven Marshall’s favourite buzzwords, Labor’s 53pc is an “uptick” of five per cent on its losing 48pc vote at the last election in 2018. That’s a big uptick. It may swing back, but what if Labor really bolts away?

South Australians do take a perverse delight in making political parties walk backwards into office. That’s why we’ve only seen three stunning “landslide” victories – elections won with swings greater than 7pc – in the last half century.

The most predictable was the 1993 “State Bank” election, where Liberal leader Dean Brown scored an almost 9pc swing, winning government with 37 seats in the 47-seat House of Assembly. This should have been a generational win, but toxic Liberal infighting meant it ended in tears.

Mike Rann’s 2006 election landslide was also on the cards. Premier Rann got a 7.7pc swing and returned to power with 28 seats, a buffer that helped Labor win the next two elections.

But let’s go back to 1979 for the landslide that caught most napping.

The Liberals, led by the late David Tonkin, achieved an 8.4pc swing, winning office from a tired, post-Don Dunstan ALP. But this only converted into a narrow win for the Tonkin Liberals, netting just 25 seats.

His measly two-seat majority became just one when a Court of Disputed Returns overturned the Liberal win in Norwood. The Tonkin government lasted just three years.

What matters is that the initial seismic swing was a shock, even to the Liberals.

On election night, Liberal head office scrambled to find the details of virtual unknowns it had chosen to contest seats the party thought it had no chance of winning.

Two of the biggest swings since 1970 didn’t deliver government, but also came out of the blue – Rann’s 9.4pc swing in 1997 and Isobel Redmond’s 8.4pc swing for the Liberals in 2010.

Opposition leader Peter Malinauskas speaking on the steps of parliament. Picture: Naomi Jellicoe

Fast forward to today and Premier Marshall should be cruising to victory. But this is SA, and we do things differently here.

Even after just one week of the formal contest, he’s being outplayed by the hugely energetic Malinauskas campaign.

Labor has staked out health as its battleground, with a fat cheque book and simple, clear messaging. Premier Marshall is bogged down in a muddy paddock at Lot Fourteen, with his signature $662m Riverbank Stadium promise not drowning, just waving.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has dubbed Premier Marshall a quokka. In town on Friday, the PM introduced the Premier as “Mr Smiley”. In what parallel political universe would anyone think that’s a winner?

The Premier should be Mr Grumpy or maybe Mr Really Sad with the Newspoll showing “Mali” thumping him on the critical preferred premier numbers, by 46 to 39pc.

The election isn’t over yet. Who knows what’s really going on behind the roller shutters in the ‘burbs? We do know, however, that COVID-19 has up-ended the way we live. Has it up-ended the way we’ll vote? Two years of living with Covid hasn’t just messed with our bodies, it has messed with our heads. Time feels like it has stood still during the pandemic, so the Marshall Government’s four years in office seems like an eternity.

Our political parties are navigating an election where the old ground rules simply don’t apply. If the earth moves for them on March 19, nobody should be surprised.