SA could face worst River Murray flooding in 50 years but locals beg visitors to keep coming

River Murray businesses are preparing for serious flooding but are also calling on visitors not to abandon them as water from the Victorian crisis begins to make its way downstream.

Catastrophic flooding in Victoria could make its way down the River Murray within the next two months, with some Riverland locals fearing the iconic waterway could rise to its highest level in almost 50 years.

However, worried local Riverland business owners are urging visitors to keep coming to the region, with the peak months away and amid uncertainty about how high the Murray will eventually rise.

The water flow into South Australia is already the highest the Murray has been since 2016 when daily flows reached 95GL.

Last Friday, the Department of Environment said the flow into the Murray at the Victorian-SA border was about 79 gigalitres a day but that would increase to around 90GL a day in mid-November. New forecasts will be released later this week, with expectations the flow will easily top 100GL a day.

During the 1974 floods, the flow at the border was about 170GL a day, the equivalent of 68,000 swimming pools of water crossing the border every day.

Rising levels have already seen some roads between Cadell and Mannum closed, while some national parks have also been closed to campers.

Loxton caravan park has flooded. Picture: Facebook/Murray River Pix

Flooded access roads have caused Joe Caudo to close his winery and restaurant which sits on the river near Cadell.

Mr Caudo said he was anticipating levels similar to 1974.

“Most people know a flood is coming and we think it is going to be similar to 50 years ago,” he said.

“We are pretty certain our cellar door will go under, but it’s built to withstand that,” he said.

“It’s our house that is the concern, we’re about 70m from the water’s edge at the moment.”

Mr Caudo said they had already begun preparing by filling sandbags.

“You can put it off and say you’ll do it tomorrow, but then all of a sudden the water is on your doorstep,” he said.

Joe Caudo, owner of Caudo Vineyard. Picture: Keryn Stevens

Mr Caudo, 75, said he was preparing for his business to be closed for around a year.

Over the weekend, The Big 4 Loxton Riverfront Holiday Park manager Samuel Obst said he have had closed around 150-180 powered and unpowered sites as water inundated a large section of the park.

UniSA’s Professor Jennifer McKay said as more had been built in the flood plains since the 1974 event, the effects could potentially be worse this time around.

Adelaide University water expert Mike Young said shacks would most likely be challenged sometime in the next six to eight weeks but it was too early to tell how high the water would rise.

“I’d be thinking about getting your stuff up out of the water, as most people have been,” he said.

However, Riverland business owners have urged tourists to support the region.

Foxtale Houseboats owner Jodie Reynolds. Picture: Keryn Stevens

Foxtale Houseboats owner Jodie Reynolds said the “best thing about being down this end of the river is we get plenty of warning”.

Ms Reynolds said the peak was still six weeks away and it was still unknown how high it would reach.

“There is a lot of people predicting this and predicting that but you really can’t predict it,” she said.

“I understand how bad it is in Echuca but it’s not like that here.”

Ms Reynolds is also driving houseboats for her customers as an added safety measure, taking them from mooring point to mooring point.

Loxton caravan park has flooded. Picture: Facebook/Murray River Pix

Lisa Cass is on a Foxtale Houseboat this week and said there was nothing “gutsy’’ about being on the Murray at the moment. “It’s as calm as calm can be,’’ she said.

Morgan Riverside Caravan Park owner Leigh Cock said flood fears had already caused cancellations but he asked visitors to keep turning up.

“The river looks great. If it was always at this level it would be great’’ he said.

Owner of Morgan Riverside Caravan Park, Leigh Cock. Picture: Keryn Stevens

Mr Cock said while more water was heading down the Murray, he would tell people if it was no longer safe to stay at his caravan park.

“It’s quite daunting what’s happening in Echuca but let’s not kill our industry before it’s killed,’’ he said. “It’s especially difficult coming off the back of the pandemic and that is why we want people to support us.’’

Flooding in Shepparton. Picture: Facebook

Preparation for floods in Echuca. Picture: Rob Leeson.

Environment Department manager of water delivery Chrissie Bloss said they could not say how bad the flooding would get in SA, even though the Goulburn River, which flows into the Murray near Echuca, was at its highest level since 1974.

“You can’t say a ‘74 flood in one tributary in one part of the basin and automatically draw a line and say it means there will be a 74 flood in South Australia,” she said.

Professor Young said the high flows will be “absolutely tremendous” for the health of the river system.

“It’s an opportunity to reset all the wetlands, especially the mouth and the Coorong that haven’t seen flows like this for 50 years,” he said.

“It will be good to give it a healthy drink and maybe even reshape the mouth properly.

“How good would it be if we never had to put a dredge back into the Mouth of the Murray again.”