SA records its lowest ever annual population increase, with cost of living conditions and the pandemic to blame

SA has recorded its lowest ever annual population increase, with cost of living, “postponed babies” and a “20-year lag” to blame. Here’s why most people are stopping at two.

South Australian women will need to return to having multiple children in their 20s to reverse the state’s plummeting natural population growth.

Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows the number of births minus the number of deaths in SA for the year ending September 2022 was 4200 – the lowest ever annual increase on record and the slowest of all mainland states.

While the breakdown of births and deaths for the period will not be released until later this year, the ABS data shows births in the decade to 2021 decreased from 19,892 to 19,757 while deaths increased from 12,665 to 14,494.

Adam Graycar, professor of public policy at the University of Adelaide, said coupled with SA’s ageing population, the stagnation was the result of a 20-year “lag” in child-bearing.

“At one stage, people would get married in their late teens, have three of four kids by the time they were 23, 24, 25, and those kids would have kids 20-odd years later,” he said. “Now you’ve got first-time mums in their 40s, and we’ve never had that before.

“Firstly, they’d be having fewer kids, but, secondly, you’ve got this lag. Instead of people having kids when they’re 22, they’re having kids when they’re 38 or 42, so you’ve lost 20 years of child-bearing.”

Krystal Mackintosh with her second child Angus, 8 months, at home in Morphett Vale, SA. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Emma Brasier

Data from the Australian Institute of Family Studies shows that in 1961 and 1971, nearly six in 10 first-time mothers were under 25.

Professor Graycar said the increased cost of living and soaring house prices could affect a couple’s decision to have more children.

“Governments are not very good at dictating reproductive patterns to their citizens – it’s not for governments to do that,” he said. “We’ve tried – during the Costello years we had a baby bonus, but it didn’t make much difference.

“This is a very complex area. It’s a major discussion about what it means for a family to have more children, what it means for society to have more children, and all the barriers.”

Social commentator Bernard Salt said he suspected Covid-19 may have encouraged families to put off expanding their families.

“A low level of natural increase can only come about if there is an uptick in the number of deaths, which there may be, but I think it’s more likely a diminution in the birthrate,” he said. “Births in the modern era is something that can be managed, and something like a pandemic certainly has an impact on confidence to have a baby.

Krystal Mackintosh and her husband Neil say any conversation about more children would include the current cost of living. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Emma Brasier

“The question is whether there is going to be a mini baby boom this time next year, when it will be shown, I think, that there was an uptick in the number of births for the year ending September 2023, as those postponed babies are brought into being.”

Morphett Vale mother Krystal Mackintosh, 32, and husband Neil, 36, welcomed their second child, Angus, in July 2022.

“We always wanted two children, and the timing with the age gap was right,” said Mrs Mackintosh, whose daughter, Scarlett, turns three in July.

She said while the pair don’t plan to have more children, any conversation about more children would include the current cost of living.

“If our mortgage rate wasn’t fixed, we would probably be struggling – especially with me being on maternity leave,” she said.

“Most people I know are stopping at two (kids).”