‘Please don’t abandon us’: Frustrated Riverland locals hold their breath, prepare for deluge

Riverland locals are holding their breath. They know there is a lot of water coming, maybe the most in 50 years. Are the devastated scenes in Echuca a sign of what’s to come?

It feels like the people of the Riverland are holding their collective breath. They know there is a lot of water coming down the River Murray, maybe the most in 50 years. With more at stake than most they are taking in the scenes of devastation in Echuca and scanning weather forecasts in Victoria and New South Wales.

But there is also a level of frustration. The worst is still four weeks away at least and, still, at this stage, just how much water will eventually find its way down the River Murray is impossible to predict.

At the Morgan Riverside Caravan Park, owner Leigh Cock has already had multiple cancellations from those who believe the Murray has already swamped his business. Off the back of the coronavirus pandemic, it’s a cruel blow for the tourism business.

“Everyone is seeing the word flood and think all of us towns are underwater, when we are not,’’ he says.

It appears as if the images of devastation that have been seen so many times in the past year across Australia from Lismore to Echuca and Shepparton have played with the national psyche and made people highly sensitive to any suggestion of flooding.

The Tree of Knowledge showing flood levels over the years at Loxton. Picture: Keryn Stevens

River Murray levels at Caudo Vineyard in Cadell.

There is no doubt the Murray is carrying a lot more water than normal. Official estimates have been creeping up in recent weeks. At the end of September, the Environment Department was predicting the peak flow at the SA-Victorian border would reach 75-80GL a day by mid-November. That would still be the highest level the Murray has reached since 2016, but the prediction was made before the most recent deluge that hit Victoria.

Last Friday, those forecasts had been upgraded to 90GL a day and now they have been further increased to 120GL a day by December, a number Deputy Premier Susan Close told parliament this week was “conservative’’.

That will make it the biggest flood since 1974. A flood that almost covered the rotunda at Mannum.

According to the state government, a River Murray flood in SA is considered “exceptional’’ if it rises 5m or more above pool level. This has happened only four times in recorded history, in 1931, 1956, 1973 and 1974, with 2022 now likely to be added to the list.

The flow in 1974 was recorded at 180GL a day. The 1956 flood, which was the largest recorded peaked at 341ML a day. Technically, the flow has to top over 200ML before the river is considered to be in “major flood”. Between 130ML and 200ML it is regarded as a “moderate flood”.

Loxton Riverfront Holday Park Big 4 manager Sam Obst. Picture: Keryn Stevens

What the current peak will be is still mainly an educated guess.

Across the Riverland, the rising river levels are already obvious. Flood plains around the river are filling up, BBQ areas near the river are surrounded in some areas by water, tables and chairs have become islands, some caravan parks have closed off parts of their sites that have become inundated. Locals says traffic on the Murray has decreased significantly, with fewer ski boats, jet skis and houseboats using the waterway. From the banks, the river, normally so languid and calm rushes past.

Jodie Reynolds owns Foxtale Houseboats and runs a hairdressing and cleaning business. The road to her home near Morgan will soon be closed and she will need to use a tinnie to get to her house. She has moved her business out of her home but still intends to run her houseboats as long as she can.

“We see a lot of people predicting this and predicting that, but you really can’t predict it,’’ she said. “I understand how bad Echuca is, but it’s not like that here.” With the river rising and the current strengthening, Reynolds is helping out her customers by driving them from mooring point to mooring point.

“The only time I will stop running the business is if I feel it’s not safe to drive,’’ she says.

On the five-bedroom Murray Entertainer, which is one of Reynold’s boats, a group of old friends sit around a table on the lower level, with lurid looking violet gin and tonics in front of them. None look particularly worried about the rising Murray.

Deb Discombe is a houseboat veteran. This is her 19th houseboat holiday and says it has been one of the best. She’s not had to take any seasickness tablets and says the river has been quieter than usual because there have been fewer of those noisy jet skis.

“It’s actually been really nice, the current is awesome,’’ she says.

And as everybody in the Riverland is quick to point out. The river really does look sensational at the moment. After many years when drought was the major talking point and arguments raged between the states about how much water SA was allowed to have, the river looks to be in rude, good health.

The replenishment of flood plains will give new impetus to animal and plant life. There is hope the amount of water will mean dredging of the Murray mouth will be postponed.

At the Riverbend Caravan Park in Renmark, manager Leanne Alberg says wildlife is teeming around the site. “I saw 22 ducklings the other day and every kangaroo seems to have a joey.’’

Walking around the park, co-manager Craig von Bertouch points out a couple of camp sites close to the river that have already become saturated but is confident the majority of the park will be safe from flooding. He points a few metres back up the park and says: “I would sort of think it will flood up to that section but the rest of the park will remain open.’’

Owner of Morgan Riverside Caravan Park Leigh Cock. Picture: Keryn Stevens

Maybe because living with the river is such an integral part of life, but there is also something of an ‘it is what it is’’ attitude as well. You’re not going to stop the river, the most you can do is prepare as well as you can.

Part of that will be urgent repairs on the levees around Renmark that were built to protect the town during the 1956 flood. The Advertiser witnessed several breaches in levee walls surrounding flood plains this week, including one several metres wide that had obviously been created using heavy machinery to build an access road. Following the story, the state government said it would be sending engineers to work with local council and landowners to reinforce the levees, which run for more than 12km.

It should provide a level of comfort for those on the flood plain. Local MP Tim Whetstone says that “if we do the preparatory work, it puts us in good stead, no matter what the flow is.

“If a wave does come down the river we won’t have to be sitting on the edge of our seat, biting our nails and thinking ‘what the hell is going to happen?’’’

At a smaller level, shack owners along the Murray are also preparing for the incoming water. Low-lying shacks along the river are likely to be inundated as the river swells, but changes to planning laws over the years have insisted on new dwellings having two rollers doors which can be raised to allow water to pass through.

Shack owners along the river have already been clearing belongings to upper levels in preparation.

Manager Craig von Bertouch at Riverbend Caravan Park in Renmark. Picture: Keryn Stevens

At Bowhill, about 30km east of Mannum, there is a row of around 200 dwellings. Multimillion properties sit beside more humble old-style shacks that have been there for decades and survived earlier floods.

Jane and Lynton Harding moved to Bowhill permanently in July but have been regulars here for 42 years. Such close association has left the couple phlegmatic about their fate.

“When it’s clear where it’s going to be I will take action,’’ the 69-year-old Lynton says. That may involve bringing in some help to move property upstairs, but the prospect of flooding has stopped him unpacking stuff in the shed that came with the move in July.

The Hardings say they will stay as long as they can but conceded a move out will be unavoidable if the local sewerage system stops working because of rising flood waters.

Not that Lynton has lost his sense of humour. “Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria never want to give us any water, now they can’t wait to get rid of it.’’

Unfortunately, there is already an economic price being paid in the Riverland, both from the effect of the little flooding that has arrived and the perception that there is more on the way.

At Caudo Vineyard at Hogwash Bend near Cadell, owner Joe Caudo has already had to close his restaurant and winery because of flooded access roads. He says the river has already risen about 2.5m. Caudo says he expects to remain shut for a year. It means he has already stood down his casual staff and estimates it will cost other local businesses around $800,000 in supplies he won’t be buying anymore.

Joe Caudo, owner of Caudo Vineyard, has had to close his business because of flooded access roads. Picture: Keryn Stevens

At the Big 4 Loxton Riverfront Holiday Park manager Sam Obst has had the council out measuring just how much the river can rise and the business remain open. Obst already has 150 powered and unpowered sites underwater.

The good news from the council is that the bulk of the park will be fine, even if the flows in the Murray reach those 1974 levels of 180GL a day.

“We can sustain 200GL without further issues, we have a long way to go,’’ he says.

Obst though says cancellations have come through for “between now and Christmas’’. He says the business is coping with that but worries for the wider Loxton community. He estimates that for every dollar spent in the caravan park, $23 is spent in local businesses such as pubs and shops.

Back along the river at Morgan, Leigh Cock is remaining philosophical.

“There is definitely reason for concern but nobody knows how much until it happens,’’ he says. “The river looks great. If it was always at this level it would be great. Let’s not kill our industry before it’s killed.’’