Looming power crisis in SA: AEMO warns of 90,000-home electricity shortfall before summer even starts

THE national electricity grid operator warns SA could face an energy shortfall equivalent to 90,000 homes in less than two weeks — before summer even starts. See the list of suburbs on the hitlist for rolling blackouts.

• Expert: Turnbull scheme will push down SA power bills
• Energy summit set to power Adelaide
• Video: Port Augusta’s Northern Power Station demolished
• Power Dossier: What you need to know

• BELOW: See the list of suburbs on the hitlist

SOUTH Australian homes are at risk of having their power cut later this month as the state faces a possible energy shortage.

In a sign of how vulnerable the state’s power supply is coming into summer, the national grid operator is predicting SA will be short about 290 megawatts — equivalent to the power needs of about 90,000 homes — over a three-day period from November 21 to 23.

But South Australians are being told not to panic because the forecast is based on a worst-case scenario in the event of extreme weather conditions and generator failures.

The Australian Energy Market Operator said the predicted energy reserve shortfall was based on “conservative estimates” and would “not necessarily translate to real energy shortfalls”.

Energy Minister Tom Koutsantonis stressed the shortage related to the “safety buffer” demanded by AEMO and that he had new powers to prevent load shedding.

South Australian homes are at risk of having their power cut later this month as the state faces a possible energy shortage.

It comes after The Advertiser revealed last month that gas generators had been forced to turn on or stay on five times in a recent six week period to prevent blackouts.

On February 8, about 90,000 customers were deliberately blacked out for about 45 minutes as temperatures soared in the early evening. At the time demand for power outstripped predictions, wind power dwindled and not all gas generators were available to be switched on.

AEMO forced SA Power Networks to shed 100MW of load — about 30,000 customers — but a computer stuff up led to 90,000 customers having their power cut.

Homes and businesses in the western suburbs would be the likely target if and when demand exceeded available supply.

WHICH SUBURBS ARE NEXT ON SA’S LOAD-SHEDDING LIST?

Following the February blackouts, the State Government launched its energy plan, a series of rules governing the national grid were changed and AEMO began work on a “strategic reserve”. Each initiative was aimed at ensuring SA would have enough power during summer.

But The Advertiser has learned that none of these plans — diesel generators, 100MW battery and deals with businesses to switch off when demand spikes — would likely to be ready to go before shortfalls were predicted.

Mr Koutsantonis would not give a ready date for the generators, which could provide 276MW, but said they were expected to be operational ahead of the December 1 deadline.

AEMO has also forecast reserve shortages every week during January and February but the new measures should all be in place by then to prevent the risk of further power outages.

Victoria was also facing a tough summer huge shortfalls forecast in early 2018.

Mr Koutsantonis said these predictions were “exactly why” the State Government launched its energy plan.

“(It’s) why we have invested in securing a state-owned power station and Tesla grid-scale battery to be available in emergency situations,” he said.

“I also have new powers to direct generators to turn on to prevent load-shedding, so there are a number of tools at our disposal this summer.

“It is important to remember that AEMO is not forecasting an actual shortfall of power, rather these are reserve shortfalls, which is the safety buffer of additional supply that the market operator requires.

“AEMO themselves have said SA’s back-up power plant and Tesla grid-scale battery will dramatically reduce the potential for supply shortfalls to occur this summer.”

An AEMO spokeswoman said contracts for its strategic program were being finalised and should be announced within the next two to three weeks.

The strategic reserve would create an addition capacity of about 240MW through paying businesses to either switch off during periods of high demand or for the use of their private generators.