Labor’s plan to stop Nick Xenophon with Grace Portolesi challenge in Hartley

AFTER Nick Xenophon’s bombshell state election announcement, Labor has prepared its plan to leave his SA Best party dead in the water.

• Portolesi tipped to take on Xenophon in Hartley
• Jenny Low claims Nick Xenophon was ‘manipulative and controlling’
• Opinion: It’s time for Mr X to answer some hard questions
• Storer in shock legal grab for Xenophon’s old Senate spot

WHEN Nick Xenophon up-ended state politics a month ago by delivering the bombshell announcement that he would contest the eastern Adelaide seat of Hartley, Labor’s response was muted.

In contrast to Liberal leader Steven Marshall going on the attack and immediately ruling out forming a coalition with Mr Xenophon’s SA Best party, Premier Jay Weatherill did not even comment.

Labor’s only response was to declare Mr Xenophon was trying to exploit an opportunity that had arisen because of Mr Marshall’s “weak leadership”.

Behind the scenes, some within Labor were canvassing a full-frontal assault on Mr Xenophon, realising his candidates could coast into office because of his popularity in opinion polls.

Nick Xenophon shopping at Tony and Mark’s fruit and veg shop at Newton in October. Picture: Mike Burton (AAP)

But wiser Labor strategists have prevailed, refusing to be spooked by the first public opinion poll in Hartley after Mr Xenophon declared his candidacy — an Advertiser/Galaxy poll showing Labor (then without a candidate) with just 17 per cent primary support and Mr Xenophon leading Liberal incumbent Vincent Tarzia 53-47 on a two-party preferred basis.

Now, the Labor strategy is clear. The plan is to stop SA Best in its tracks by denying Mr Xenophon victory in Hartley, leaving his party politically decapitated and rudderless without its figurehead, regardless of how many seats it might win elsewhere.

Installing former Labor minister Grace Portolesi as the party’s candidate in Hartley means voters will have the choice of three quality candidates.

Both Mr Tarzia and Ms Portolesi, who held the seat from 2006 to 2014, have extensive networks in the community, coupled with an established party machine on the ground. Both have Italian heritage, in an electorate with a large Italian community.

Mr Xenophon might be extremely popular but he lacks some of these other advantages. He has lived in the electorate for some time but his focus has, understandably, been elsewhere — on the national stage as an extremely influential Senate crossbencher.

Ms Portolesi’s candidacy means Mr Xenophon will face two established major party candidates, complicating his task of stripping support from the Liberals and Labor.

This invites questions about preference deals. Mr Xenophon is unlikely to compromise his independence by favouring either major party ahead of the other on his how-to-vote card.

Voters’ distribution of preferences will be unpredictable and crucial, just like at the 2014 Fisher by-election. Labor’s Nat Cook unexpectedly won this by 9 votes, from the Liberals’ Heidi Harris. In the penultimate round of preference distribution, Ms Harris led Ms Cook by almost 2000 votes. But Mr Woodyatt was 219 votes behind Ms Cook and, when his preferences were distributed, they flowed in sufficient number to elect the Labor candidate.

A similarly complicated scenario is now likely in Hartley. The result is highly unpredictable. A month ago, Mr Xenophon declared he would have to fight hard to win the lower house seat. He was right.