Labor polling shows boundary redraw appeal loss means Jack Snelling could lose to veteran party MP Frances Bedford
BESIEGED Health Minister Jack Snelling’s hostile takeover of a fellow state Labor MP’s seat is threatening his political career, leaked internal ALP polling shows.
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BESIEGED Health Minister Jack Snelling’s hostile takeover of a fellow state Labor MP’s seat is threatening his political career, leaked internal ALP polling shows.
As Labor reels from the Supreme Court rejection of its appeal against a radical redraw of electoral boundaries, The Advertiser can reveal Frances Bedford, the veteran MP shunted to allow Mr Snelling to move seats, is on track to more than double his primary vote if she runs as an independent.
If this result were realised on polling day, Mr Snelling would run a limp fourth in the primary race and Ms Bedford would take the seat as an independent, with Liberal preferences.
The leaking of the explosive polling data is a clear sign of internal Labor tension over the issue of Ms Bedford’s disendorsement in Florey.
The Advertiser understands Ms Bedford, the Deputy Speaker, is considering quitting the party before next year’s election, meaning she would serve the remainder of her time as an independent.
Questioned yesterday on her future by The Advertiser, Ms Bedford would only say: “I don’t know what the future holds, it will depend.’’
The study, conducted by respected polling firm ReachTel on the night of March 2, covered 606 voters within new boundaries for the redrawn northeastern suburbs seat.
The poll finds that if Ms Bedford ran as an independent, she would win a third of the vote in a seven-way contest that also included Mr Snelling, the Liberals, Nick Xenophon Team (since renamed SA Best), Greens, Family First and One Nation.
Ms Bedford’s expected 33.4 per cent of the vote compares with 15.7 per cent for Mr Snelling. Respondents gave the Liberals 17.2 per cent of the vote, beating NXT on 16.2 per cent. That leaves Mr Snelling running a limp fourth and no chance of holding the seat on these numbers.
A source close to the MP said the question Ms Bedford was asking herself is: “Do I stay in the party?”
Under the radically redrawn electoral boundaries delivered late last year, 17,000 of the seat’s 23,000 voters will come from Mr Snelling’s current seat of Playford.
A full court sitting of the Supreme Court yesterday rejected Labor’s appeal against the new boundaries.
The changes shifted almost 400,000 South Australians into different seats and – according to political analysts – placed the Liberal Party in pole position to form the next government.
Labor appealed against the commission’s findings, arguing that the redraw meant some voters would have more influence than others due to a disparity in elector numbers in some seats.
But the court found that the Electoral Commission did not need to ensure that each seat had an equal number of voters.
Labor Party lawyer Adrian Tisato said the party would now consider whether to seek leave to appeal further to the High Court “very quickly”, likely within a few days.
The court reserved its decision on whether Labor would have to pay the Liberals’ costs for the appeal, which it is understood could be as much as $100,000. Any further appeal to the High Court would also be a costly exercise.
The leaked Florey poll, which is the first comprehensive survey of state voting intentions publicly published in almost six months, also indicates both major parties giving up significant ground to independents.
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation received 8.3 per cent of the vote and easily outpolled Family First and the Greens.
A result like that on election day next year would deliver the controversial Queensland Senator at least one representative in SA’s Upper House, and make her preferences critical in the Lower House.
The specific question asked by pollsters was: “The current Labor member for Florey, Frances Bedford, is being challenged by Health Minister Jack Snelling for preselection and may run as an independent”. They then requested voters back a candidate assuming that scenario.
Ms Bedford’s support is strongest among women, where she wins 36 per cent of the primary vote. However, she still out-polls Mr Snelling with men by a commanding 30-21 per cent.
Liberal sources are rejoicing at the idea of Ms Bedford running, saying a win for her in Florey would bring down one of Labor’s key ministers and its chances of majority government.
A split between Ms Bedford and the Labor Party has been looming for years. She resisted an internal push to retire at the 2014 election and nominated to run again in Florey last month despite a factional deal which gave Mr Snelling the numbers to take the seat.
Ms Bedford removed her nomination for Labor endorsement in Florey this week, but has publicly speculated about the prospect of going independent and running in the seat.
One Labor source said Ms Bedford was “still very angry with what’s gone on”.
“She’s absolutely weighing it up, going independent,” the source said. “It’s a live option.”
If Ms Bedford quits Labor, there are big repercussions for Mr Weatherill’s 15-year-old Labor Government in the 12 months left before polling day.
A defection to the crossbench would reduce Labor from a majority in its own right, and back to a minority government. Labor formed government, with the support of Port Pirie-based independent Geoff Brock, after the 2014 election.
It became an outright majority government later that year at a southern suburbs by-election to replace the late independent Bob Such in Fisher.
Labor would almost certainly hold government until the next election even if Ms Bedford moved to the crossbench, but she could combine with Mr Brock and former Liberal leader-turned-Labor Cabinet minister Martin Hamilton-Smith in an extreme circumstance to bring it down.
The poll includes an NXT candidate option, despite Senator Xenophon saying he would be unlikely to run against Ms Bedford if she contests the seat as an independent against Labor.
However, that suggests she could poll above the recorded 33.4 per cent primary vote, campaigning with NXT support and absorbing much of the new party’s 16.2 per cent support.
-with Lauren Novak