Lauren Novak: Court ruling in Liberals favour over boundaries change doesn’t guarantee them victory in next election

THE Liberal Party had a crucial strategic win this week, but it cannot take for granted that it will guarantee them victory at the statewide election a year from now, writes Lauren Novak

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THE Liberal Party had a crucial strategic win this week, but it cannot take for granted that it will guarantee them victory at the statewide election a year from now.

Five of the state’s top judges flatly rejected a bid by Labor to reconsider the state’s electoral boundaries — again — after a radical new map was put forward late last year which shifted seats into the Liberal column, at least on paper.

That new arrangement, designed by the Electoral District Boundaries Commission of SA, shifted four seats into the Opposition’s column at the next poll.

Labor exercised its right to appeal the decision — for the first time — arguing the redraw meant some voters would have more influence than others because of uneven numbers of electors across seats.

But it was put back in its box by the Full Bench of the Supreme Court on Friday, which dismissed the appeal unanimously.

Labor has one last roll of the dice — it can seek leave to appeal to the High Court. Although, such a resounding rejection at this stage of the game makes that a riskier decision.

Even one dissenting voice on the full bench could have left open a sliver of hope, but the message was clear — the judges didn’t buy Labor’s argument.

A High Court appeal would be a costly avenue — on top of the costs, Labor could be made to cover for the Liberal party from this unsuccessful appeal.

Kicking the case along to the High Court would also prolong uncertainty over the eventual boundaries of electorates as we draw ever closer to polling day on March 17 next year.

Both major parties are well into the process of preselecting candidates and Friday’s decision — if left to stand — means those plans won’t need to be rehashed.

Boundary changes have put the Liberal Party in the early box seat for the next state election.

Labor strategists say they will take the next few days to assess their options.

Some insist another appeal is still a “live option”. Passions run deep over the argument that every person’s vote — no matter where they live — should hold the same value.

Labor stalwarts fear that allowing the status quo to go ahead will cement a dangerous precedent.

Conversely, Liberals are welcoming the possibility of an easier ride in years ahead.

Friday’s decision is disappointing and embarrassing for Labor — even if not unexpected.

However, some feel it might be time to lay down the sword. The Labor Party made its point, its warriors have worked through the stages of grief following the revelation of the radical redraw and have finally arrived at acceptance.

For them, ongoing uncertainty is worse than being cast as the underdog.

In fact, some welcome that challenge to keep the troops alert.

If Labor lets the new map stand, the battle lines will be set in stone and both major parties will know where they stand. Then the real fighting will begin.

Going into that battle, Friday’s win is a morale boost for Liberal MPs and candidates.

They are relieved and jubilant. But they also know they can’t let it go to their heads.

Labor has proven its ability, and sheer determination, to launch a serious ground game regardless of the boundaries.

John Howard has warned SA Opposition leader Steven Marshall’s party against election complacency.

Even with the retirement of some key spear carriers who held on to crucial marginal seats in 2014, there are those among the Labor ranks who are increasingly confident they can pull off another unexpected victory.

In turn, the Liberals know they need to pick up territory and not lose skin elsewhere.

In an interview with The Advertiser this week, former Liberal prime minister John Howard warned his state colleagues against relying on the boundary changes catapulting them to victory at next year’s poll.

“If the boundaries are more representative then that will help, but you can’t bank last election’s vote and assume that anything else is in addition,” Mr Howard said.

“You’ve got to hang on to what you’ve got last time and try to add to it. They can’t just assume that because the boundaries are apparently fairer they’ll get in.”

Speaking before Friday’s court decision, Mr Howard said Liberal leader Steven Marshall was “very realistic” about what lay ahead.

This week’s events mean the Liberals remain in the box seat — pending a last-ditch appeal by Labor. But they cannot believe the win is in the bag yet.