Federal Liberal support drops in SA with 8 per cent swing to Labor, Roy Morgan poll shows

PRIME Minister Malcolm Turnbull faces the loss of two SA seats and high-profile minister Christopher Pyne would be fighting for survival if an election were held today, polling shows.

Poll shows Pyne would struggle to keep seat

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PRIME Minister Malcolm Turnbull faces the loss of two SA seats and high-profile minister Christopher Pyne would be fighting for survival if an election were held today, polling shows.

A new Roy Morgan survey reveals federal Labor’s support is stronger in SA than any other state, where Coalition backing has gone into free-fall since the 2013 election.

The poll records federal Labor’s SA support at 55.5 per cent, compared with the Coalition’s 44.5 per cent. It marks an almost 8 per cent swing to Labor in SA in the past three years.

Political experts attribute the result to anger over job losses linked to Holden’s closure, due next year, and rolling uncertainty over the future of the defence sector and submarine contract.

Premier Jay Weatherill has also indicated the outcome of tense negotiations over the future of the Whyalla steelworks, which Mr Pyne has ministerial responsibility for, could cast a long shadow over the campaign.

Parent company Arrium says it expects to make a decision on mothballing the plant by the middle of the year. April 5 looms as a key date, as it attempts to reach a recapitalisation agreement with New York-headquartered investment firm GSO.

Applied uniformly, the huge swing would result in Labor’s Steve Georganas regaining the western suburbs seat of Hindmarsh from first-term Liberal MP Matt Williams.

Minister for Industry and SA federal MP Christopher Pyne would struggle to hold on to his seat if an election were held now, a poll shows.

Labor would also take the seaside southern suburbs seat of Boothby from the Liberals, where political scientist Nicole Flint is seeking to keep the seat Liberal following the retirement of Andrew Southcott.

Mr Pyne would wear a huge dent in his 10.1 per cent buffer, but just cling on in Sturt.

However, SA results will be further complicated by the arrival of Senator Nick Xenophon’s political party and the prospect of three-corner contests in seats across the state.

Nationwide, the Roy Morgan poll puts Labor slightly ahead on 50.5 per cent, to the Coalition’s 49.5 per cent. This conflicts with other recent polls, which show a dead heat or Coalition lead.

University of Adelaide political lecturer Clem Macintyre said many SA voters were reacting against Federal Government decisions or delays that raised concerns about local job creation.

“There is still considerable push back in SA in relation to a lack of a commitment from the Federal Government in relation to submarine manufacture,” Professor Macintyre said.

“The fact that a couple of (supply) ships have gone off to Spain underlines that.

“Even if the Government comes up with a promise in relation to submarines between now and then, without signing a contract they’re open to an accusation about past broken promises.”

Mr Pyne has recently announced the acceleration of a steel contract and review of anti-dumping laws as measures to assist the Whyalla steelworks to remain viable.

The Coalition has also committed to giving Adelaide the highly lucrative future frigates contract in 2020.

Mr Weatherill said he intended to keep the Whyalla issue at front of mind for Mr Turnbull in coming weeks and described talks over the rescue plan as being in a “delicate stage”.

The Coalition leads in Western Australia, Queensland and New South Wales. Sydney, and a clutch of marginal seats in its western suburbs, loom as critical to the national result.

Labor is ahead in SA, Victoria and Tasmania.