Daniel Wills: Double dissolution federal election could give South Australia more influence

SOUTH Australia is unlikely to decide who forms government at a federal election later this year — but could have a major say on how it runs after that.

Federal Labor candidate Kate Ellis, sitting member for the seat of Adelaide, casting her vote at a polling booth in Melbourne Street, North Adelaide.

SOUTH Australia is unlikely to decides who forms government at this year’s federal election — but we could have a major say on how it runs after that, as a major Senate shake-up looms.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has outlined a clear ultimatum for the Senate. Pass reforms aimed at cleaning up the union movement of face a double dissolution election in July.

All indications are that the Senate will dare him to pull the trigger, and race to the polls.

SA politics is currently dancing to its own tune. While Liberal support nationwide has recovered significantly in the wake of a change of prime minister, SA remains deeply sceptical.

A Roy Morgan poll released yesterday should ring alarm bells for SA Liberals. It found Labor with a 55.5-44.5 advantage in the state, marking a huge move to the Opposition since 2013.

If this swing 7.5 per cent swing is crudely applied, the Liberals would be washed away in Hindmarsh after just one term. Boothby would drop to Labor on a wafer-thin margin and federal industry minister Christopher Pyne would have a huge battle to hold Sturt.

But the big complication is the impact of independent Senator Nick Xenophon and his self-styled political party. He threatens to chop up the vote in Lower House seats, making for three-way Mexican stand-offs where preference deals will be crucial to deciding the final victor.

This could make for some crazy and unexpected results, even in seats considered safe.

If Labor continues to make gains against a Coalition accused of dithering, and especially if talks to save the Whyalla steelworks come to nothing in a fortnight, things could get interesting.

Yet it’s most likely, despite the roulette game SA’s Lower House election is likely to become thanks to Senator Xenophon, few seats will change hands in SA. The fates of Mr Turnbull and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten will mainly be decided in the western suburbs of Sydney.

It’s upstairs in Canberra where SA may find itself with immense new influence.

At a double dissolution election, it becomes twice as easy as usual to get elected in the Senate.

With the entire Senate up for election instead of just half, the statewide vote needed for a seat nosedives to 7.69 per cent. Based on current polls, Senator Xenophon could get himself and two colleagues elected at a double-dissolution election and hold outside hope of snagging a fourth.

The Greens would likely drop from two SA senators to just one, and Family First’s Bob Day could entertain an outside chance of being returned if his vote is improved by profile.

This threat from Senator Xenophon places pressure on the east coast-obsessed major parties to turn their attention to major local issues like our appalling 7.7 per cent unemployment rate.

They can either cede attention and support to the maverick stuntman, and let him hold the next government to ransom with an expanded balance of power, or offer solutions to knock him out.

Either way, a state angry at being ignored by Canberra is set to demand attention either during this extended campaign, or in the three years after as Team Xenophon takes centre stage.

THE KEY SA SEATS

HINDMARSH

Where: Western suburbs

Margin: Lib, 1.9 per cent

Incumbent: Matt Williams

Rivals: Steve Georganas (ALP), Daniel Kirk (NXT)

Prediction: Lib hold

Key issues: The state’s most marginal seat was won by the Liberal at the 2013 election as their only SA gain at an election where the needle swung strongly to the Liberals nationwide as the country grew sick of Labor instability. An area that is feeling the pinch from the decline of manufacturing, and also home to a very high proportion of elderly residents. The damage done to the Liberal brand in SA under the leadership of former prime minister Tony Abbott put this seat firmly in play and given Labor’s Steve Georganas hope of holding it once again.

BOOTHBY

Where: Southern beachside suburbs

Margin: Lib, 7.1 per cent

Candidate: Nicolle Flint

Rivals: Mark Ward (ALP), Karen Hockley (NXT)

Prediction: Lib hold

Key issues: Long-serving MP Andrew Southcott is retiring and has made way for political scientist and journalist Nicolle Flint. The exit of an incumbent MP often leads to speculation the seat could change as their personal vote is lost. However, many Liberals believe their support has been suppressed in the seat for several elections and could now rebound. The main threat to the Liberals is the unpredictable influence of the Nick Xenophon Team, which could splinter the vote three ways. Mr Ward is a schoolteacher who ran at a state by-election in 2015.

STURT

Where: Eastern suburbs

Margin Lib, 10.1 per cent

Incumbent: Christopher Pyne

Rivals: Matthew Wright (NXT)

Prediction: Lib hold

Key issues: Mr Pyne is the most high-profile and senior member of the SA Liberals in Canberra and has looked under extreme threat from the Nick Xenophon Team as his colleague dither over the future submarines and watch Holden close. Mr Pyne was run extremely close and almost lost the seat in 2007. However, he is renowned as a ruthless and canny campaigner. Mr Pyne will be aided by recent commitments on the future frigates and his personal intervention in announcing a review to assist the Whyalla steelworks. Labor is yet to announce a candidate.

MAYO

Where: Adelaide Hills

Margin: Lib, 12.5 per cent

Incumbent: Jamie Briggs

Rivals: Rebekha Sharkie (NXT)

Prediction: Lib hold

Key issues: A potentially fiery campaign is on offer between the dumped former cities minister and his one-time staffer. Labor is yet to pick a candidate and has little chance of winning the seat. However, it will likely feed preferences to Ms Sharkie and she could capitalise on the hit to Mr Briggs’ reputation sustained when he was dropped from the ministry after an incident in a Hong Kong bar. Ms Sharkie has already come under attack for her appearance before a farmers’ rights group that is associated with climate change deniers and One Nation’s Pauline Hanson.

WAKEFIELD

Where: Northern suburbs

Margin: 3.4 per cent

Incumbent: Nick Champion

Rivals: TBA

Prediction: ALP hold

Key issues: Holden sits at the centre of the electorate, and dealing with its closure is the number one issue confronting voters there. Labor, both at state and national levels, have effectively pinned the plant shutdown on the Federal Government’s refusal to sail in with enough money to save it. This issue will continue to resonate at the next election in an area with some of the strongest Labor suburbs in the state. Subs are also a big local sore point. The Liberals’ delay in picking a candidate is a good indication of how strong they believe their own chances are.

ADELAIDE

Where: CBD and inner city

Margin 4.0 per cent

Incumbent: Kate Ellis

Rivals: David Colovic (Lib), Joe Hill (NXT)

Prediction: ALP hold

Key issues: The rise of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull gave Liberals hope that the seat could be within their grasp, having been surprisingly wrenched away by a young Kate Ellis in 2004 who retains a huge personal vote. However, latest polls still indicate the Liberals have gone backwards since the last election in 2013. Mr Colovic did himself no favours after preselection, saying he often shops “at the poor end” of Prospect Rd. Expect Labor’s to use that heavily in new migrant and less affluent suburbs of the inner north that the seat can swing on.