Analysis: Adelaide Hills Liberal Dan Cregan quitting Kavel creates an opportunity for Mayo MP Rebekha Sharkie

Mayo MP Rebekha Sharkie is rejecting speculation she will switch to state politics to replace Dan Cregan – but it wouldn’t be such a bad move, writes Paul Starick.

Rebekha Sharkie is rejecting speculation about taking over her close associate Dan Cregan’s Adelaide Hills seat and moving to state politics – but the move would tick plenty of boxes for her and the Liberals.

Mr Cregan, a first-term Liberal MP in the blue-ribbon seat of Kavel, on Sunday declared he would quit at next year’s state election.

This ignited speculation about Ms Sharkie, the federal MP for Mayo and a former Liberal staffer, standing in Kavel as an independent. The state seat, Kavel, is firmly within Mayo’s boundaries.

Asked about this, Ms Sharkie told The Advertiser: “I’m not moving to state (politics).” Asked whether she would endorse an independent, Ms Sharkie declared her focus was firmly on representing Mayo, as it had always been.

Ms Sharkie said she was “very sad” that Mr Cregan was leaving politics, saying he had been an excellent MP who had done a better job in 3.5 years than others had in a decade.

Her emphatic comments leave little, if any, wriggle room but Sharkie for State would be a neat fit for her and the Liberal Party.

Most pressingly, it would almost certainly return Mayo to the Liberals at a federal election expected early next year – likely about the same time as the March 19 state poll.

Rebekha Sharkie and Dan Cregan at Mount Barker's new regional sports hub. Picture: Supplied

Ms Sharkie wrested the seat from the Liberals in 2016 – a stunning victory that she has cemented with a deserved reputation as a hardworking MP firmly focused on local issues.

After two failed attempts by Georgina Downer to recapture the seat once held for the Liberals by her father, former federal leader Alexander Downer, the party has made repeated attempts to lure Ms Sharkie back into the fold.

Before entering parliament, Ms Sharkie worked as a legal researcher for former state Liberal leader and Heysen MP Isobel Redmond, to whom she remains close.

For Ms Sharkie, transferring to state politics would lessen the demands of helping run a minor party, Centre Alliance, and enable her to spend more time with her family.

Whether as a Liberal or, more likely, as an independent, she would likely walk into a Cabinet ministry – in a mould similar to former Nationals MP Karlene Maywald in the Rann Labor government.

More likely, though, Mr Cregan will be replaced by local Liberals Rowan Mumford or Caroline Rhodes. Property Council state director Daniel Gannon has strong credentials but does not live in the electorate.

Grain Producers SA chief executive officer Caroline Rhodes.

Mr Mumford is Liberal Mayo federal electorate committee president and is managing director of an Aldgate fitness studio. Ms Rhodes is chief executive officer of Grains Producers SA and a South Australian Cricket Association board member. Ms Rhodes, who unsuccessfully stood for preselection in the state seat of Schubert to replace Stephan Knoll, was joint managing director of Alexander Downer’s former lobbying firm. She would be likely to attract support from the influential family’s strong Liberal Hills power base.