Adelaide’s dry spell tipped to continue but experts say we could be set for a mid-year deluge

Adelaide is not likely to record any rainfall this week and into the next but experts tip we could be set for a mid-year deluge.

Adelaide’s unprecedented dry spell is set to continue this week and into the next but experts tip we could be set for a mid-year deluge.

The state is fresh off its driest run of February-April weather in 100 years and no rain has fallen in May – with none forecast this week.

While the lack of rain has kept the roses blooming and more visitors coming to the Adelaide Botanic Garden, farmers have been anticipating rain since Anzac Day.

Grain Industry of SA president Tess Walch said farmers would hold out for another two to four weeks before starting to lose their optimism about the coming season.

“But as always, it is the spring rain that makes or breaks the crop more so than an early break,” Ms Walch said.

Horticulturist Lilith Tremmery said the roses were still in bloom because the “autumn flush” started late this year.

Roses at the Botanic Gardens are having a late bloom due to the weather. Picture: Brett Hartwig

Horticulturist Lilith Tremmery said the roses are expected to reach peak bloom next week. Picture: Brett Hartwig

“They’re holding on a bit longer due to the warmer weather and lack of rain,” Ms Tremmery said.

“The roses are expected to reach peak bloom next week.”

Ms Tremmery said the blooming roses were attracting a higher visitation than normal.

However relief is in sight with a high chance of unusually high rainfall during June to August being tipped.

Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to be partly cloudy and 21C, while clouds will clear for a sunny 21C on Friday, a partly cloudy 18C on Saturday and 19C on Sunday.

The following Monday, May 20, is looking much the same with a partly cloudy 18C and some light winds and still no rain.

Bureau of Meteorology spokesperson climatologist Dr Simon Grainger said the official Adelaide rain gauge on West Tce recorded 15.0mm in the February-April 2024 period – the lowest total since 1923, and the fourth lowest in the combined Adelaide record.

Other recent low February-April totals for Adelaide were 2019 (17.8mm), 2018 (21.8mm), 2005 (25.2mm) and 2002 (23.0mm)

He said it was not just the city running dry.

The rain gauges have been left dry this month.

“More broadly, February to April 2024 rainfall for most of southeast South Australia was in serious deficiency, meaning it was in the lowest 10 per cent of all years since 1900,” he said.

“Large parts of the Eyre Peninsula, and some areas on the Yorke Peninsula and around Clare had their driest February – April period on record, since 1900”.

He said “rainfall deficiency” was a measure of meteorological drought, which affected the water available for use.

“Soil moisture in April for most of the south of South Australia was very much below average, in the lowest 10 per cent of years since 1911, affecting the water available for agriculture, including crops.”

However, the Bureau of Meteorology’s long term forecasting is predicting “unusually high rainfall during June to August”.

Unusually high rainfall is defined as the highest 20 per cent of June to August rainfall from 1981 to 2018.