Daniel Wills: Newspoll shows serious problems for Nick Xenophon and SA Best at SA election

THERE is live possibility that, despite all the hype and heat around his mould-breaking campaign, SA Best leader Nick Xenophon’s new party could win zero seats, writes Daniel Wills.

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THERE is live possibility that, despite all the hype and heat around his mould-breaking campaign, SA Best leader Nick Xenophon’s new party could win zero seats.

A complex Newspoll published at the weekend showed SA Best’s statewide support on a rapid slide.

While still a record-setting number for a third party at 21 per cent, it’s come off dramatically since the 32 per cent Mr Xenophon recorded just before Christmas. The Advertiser’s Mad Monday polls have detected a similar trend in Adelaide Hills seats, which were supposed to be SA Best’s base, and found still weaker numbers in the western suburbs. However, he is looking competitive in Whyalla.

One of the big mistakes made by commentators watching the last state election was assuming a high statewide figure for the Liberals would automatically transfer into seat wins and a change of government.

SA Best leader Nick Xenophon could see his fledgling party end up with no seats, with polls showing plummeting support. Picture: AAP / David Mariuz

That’s not how it works. To win seats, SA Best is going to need to run in first or second place, and then stack preferences to finish the winner. To win any seat, SA Best must get in the low 30s or more. A wide, shallow spread of votes across SA is useless.

No one can today name a seat where SA Best starts as clear favourite, not even the one Mr Xenophon is contesting himself, Hartley.

That challenging equation could become even more difficult for Mr Xenophon if the other parties, not just Labor and Liberal but also sizeable small parties, decide not to send him their preferences.

At the moment, he’s firmly in the hunt through the Hills and Fleurieu Peninsula but far from any kind of safe bet.

There is still a lot unknown.

There has been no public polling done in Labor’s heartland industrial seats of the working-class northern suburbs.

It is possible that Mr Xenophon’s politics of protest are playing well out there, and SA Best could get a primary vote high enough to challenge for wins.

This is the nightmare scenario for Labor, where it’s attacked in the traditional heartland by the X-factor as Liberals sweep the mortgage belt marginals.

But despite a truly terrible media week for the Government over the latest Oakden report, Labor’s headline numbers are healthier than they have been for some time. Its primary vote is almost equivalent with the Liberals, and Premier Jay Weatherill is more popular than Opposition Leader Steven Marshall.

But above all of that, we see yet another poll restate the main theme of this campaign — volatility.

In the space of less than a year SA Best has been invented from almost thin air, polled higher than the major parties and found enough candidates to form a government, before crashing back down to Earth like an Elon Musk test rocket.

Best to just try and clear your mind and hold on tight.