Population forecasts highlight state’s failure to plan for growth

The state government continually refers to unprecedented growth as an excuse for our current, health and housing crises. But it’s all just more weasel words and spin, writes Peter Gleeson.

It does seem intriguing that throughout estimates and in ministerial statements, Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, and her ministers continually refer to “unprecedented and unexpected growth’’ as the excuse for our current housing, health and transport crises.

Yet their own data projections from 2016 to 2041, the projections treasury and state planning departments provide to councils for planning purposes, anticipate the current population to be exactly as projected. According to the Queensland state government’s own projections; population at December 2021 was 5,265,043.

The Queensland Statisticians Office projected our population at December 2021 to be 5,261,567 if we were to experience median growth. 5,224,822 (low) and 5,310,835 (high)

Southport MP Rob Molhoek says the government has failed to plan.

“They have ignored their own projections,’’ he says. “(Deputy Premier) Steven Miles of all people should know this. His department published this information on the State Planning and Development’s website under the headings; “People Power: How We’re Planning for Queensland’s Future Population Today” and “Population growth = a positive for Queensland” and on the page headed “How do we plan for growth?”

MP Rob Molhoek says the government’s own documents highlight a failure to plan for growth.

As usual, all spin and weasel words. At the weekend, we saw disturbing revelations about the Palaszczuk government’s tardiness on the rollout of Olympics infrastructure, reinforcing a wider problem around adequate planning for the fast-paced growth within South East Queensland.

Greater Brisbane in 2061 will have a similar population to those of Greater Sydney and Greater Melbourne of 2016. The Bureau of Transport, Infrastructure and Regional Economics (BITRE) estimates the social costs of congestion for Brisbane will rise from $2.3 billion to $5.9 billion over the period 2015 to 2030.

This is based on average delays in traffic movement and was costed for private and business time costs; vehicle operating costs; and extra air pollution costs. A poorly performing public transport network will contribute to and exacerbate the congestion problem by shifting passengers to car usage.

This is because a poorly performing public transport network is unlikely to create a mode shift from car dependency and have the reverse effect of maintaining and growing car usage and dependency.

Experts such as Andrew McEwan, who has authored public transport blueprints for the Baird government in NSW, says electric vehicles won’t solve this economic problem.

“Public transport use will be critical for a well-functioning Olympics and the legacy that investments will create. Similarly investments in critical road infrastructure such as the Coomera Connector will be equally critical,’’ he says.

“Time is also a critical issue as 2032 is not far away particularly if Christmas breaks and weather interventions are taken into account. At the moment we have a perfect cyclone of events – poor strategic planning for growth contributing to lack of housing supply, inflation and the resulting interest rate increases and subsequent construction costs increases.

“Also contributing to the poor supply of residential developments has been the inordinate fear of working in partnership with the development community – treating developers like horror movie villains only hellbent on their own survival. That has to change if the urgent supply of residential properties is to be fast tracked through planning and development systems in local government.”

With the housing summit looming as one of the state’s most pressing issues, it’s hard to ignore McEwan’s musings.

Originally published as Population forecasts highlight state’s failure to plan for growth