Will Scott Morrison’s problems hurt Steven Marshall?

No matter how bad Morrison has been, Marshall will not necessarily be held accountable for his federal leader’s sins, writes Michael McGuire.

Whatever little relaxation Premier Steven Marshall managed to grasp over the Easter weekend would have evaporated when he woke yesterday morning to see the latest Newspoll figures published in The Australian.

To put it mildly, they weren’t pretty.

But neither are they necessarily straightforward to translate. Or even necessarily significant this far out from next March’s state election. It was a small sample size and, let’s face it, polls have been wrong before. The raw numbers published in The Australian has Labor ahead 55-45 on a two-party preferred basis in South Australia. In the three months to the end of March, Labor climbed six percentage points, while the Liberals fell six percentage points since the last survey period ended in November.

Under those numbers, the federal Liberal seat of Boothby, held by a margin of only 1.4 per cent, would be swept away. The Liberal cause in Boothby not helped by the retirement of sitting MP Nicolle Flint.

Unquestionably the past couple of months have been horrendous for Prime Minister Scott Morrison. His handling of the various sexual assault allegations that have swirled around his government has been inept. Morrison has lacked empathy, understanding and basic compassion. At different times he has come across as angry, frustrated and confused. His leadership has been tested and he has failed.

Morrison has backed up that underperformance by delivering one of the slowest coronavirus vaccination programs in the world. He promised 4 million Australians would be vaccinated by the end of March. He missed it by 3.4 million.

So it looks like Morrison not only lacks the empathy and compassion most demand from their leaders, but he’s also deficient when it comes to delivering the nuts and bolts of government. What does all that mean for Steven Marshall? There is a long-held wisdom that voters distinguish what they want from federal and state leaders and vote accordingly. So, no matter how bad Morrison has been, Marshall will not necessarily be held accountable for his federal leader’s sins.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison in Adelaide to visit space and defence industries, with Finance Minister Simon Birmingham (left) and SA Premier Steven Marshall (right). Picture: Dean Martin

And that may well hold this time. Before the 2019 NSW election, poor federal polling for Liberal premier Gladys Berejiklian indicated she would struggle to retain her job. She won easily.

It is generally thought that Marshall has handled the pandemic well. Certainly, SA is the envy of most other places. We have lifted restrictions earlier and embraced a version of normality that has allowed crowds to return to events such as the Adelaide Fringe and football.

The question remains however – how much credit the public will give Marshall for the outcome. Unlike more aggressive premiers such as Victoria’s Dan Andrews and Western Australia’s Mark McGowan, Marshall was happy to allow public servants Nicola Spurrier and Grant Stevens to be the face of the pandemic response. As a result, the success of the response has been attributed more to them than to Marshall. There is no evidence that Marshall has seen anything like the “COVID bump” that saw McGowan’s Labor win 53 seats and the Liberals two in last month’s WA election.

And now SA Labor’s strategy is increasingly clear. Having backed the pandemic response and keeping as close to Marshall, Spurrier and Stevens as possible, it will now try to hang on the premier any slowness in the state’s economic recovery. Labor will be quietly hoping, for example, SA’s unemployment rate remains the worst in the nation.

There are other complications now for Marshall. Morrison will try to delay the next federal election as long as possible. He has until next May to hold the election, which raises the possibility of competing state and federal campaigns. The state election would be swamped by federal argy-bargy, which wouldn’t help Marshall either.

Still, the state Liberals must remain favourites to win in March. After 16 years in opposition they won in 2018. The fear of becoming a one-term government will be galvanising for the Liberals who endured those dark days and for those who have only recently appreciated the spoils of office.

But Labor has some cause for optimism. It will be a down-and-dirty political fight for the next 11 months.