COVID-19: PM faces election peril amid vaccine rollout backlash

The Coalition is facing collapse in SA including Boothby, exclusive analysis of Newspoll data has revealed. But incumbent Boothby MP Nicolle Flint insists it can be retained.

The Coalition is facing collapse in South Australia – and would almost certainly lose the pivotal seat of Boothby – if a Federal Election was held now, exclusive Newspoll analysis has revealed.

Its primary support in SA has fallen six points to 38 per cent while Labor’s vote has risen five points to 41 per cent, analysis by The Advertiser’s sister newspaper The Australian has shown.

The Australian examined the past four Newspolls and averaged the results.

It found the Federal Opposition leads 55-45 in SA on a two-party-preferred split.

This would mean the Liberal’s would likely lose the seat of Boothby, which they hold on a margin of just 1.38 per cent, if an election was held now.

Incumbent Boothby MP, Nicolle Flint, who has announced she won’t be contesting the next election, said the seat was “absolutely winnable with the right candidate”.

“The person selected by our grassroots members will need to be a hard worker who has strong local ties and will deliver for our area,” she said.

“I know our community in Boothby well, and from a national perspective they will vote for who they think can keep their family safe and the economy strong.”

Ms Flint said the Federal Government was “excelling on those indicators”.

The Liberal Party has closed nominations for Boothby and is working through its candidate review process.

Labor will open nominations for its Boothby candidate soon.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison (centre) in Adelaide to visit space and defence industries, with Finance Minister Simon Birmingham (left) and SA Premier Steven Marshall. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Dean Martin

Premier Steven Marshall would not be drawn on whether he was concerned the results might have a flow-on effect against the state Liberal Party, saying polls “move around a lot”.

“The reality is what we’re focused on here in South Australia 100 per cent is getting a very good outcome in terms of our management of the coronavirus, and number two, finding as many jobs as we possibly can,” he said.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s approval rating also took a dive amid a war of words with premiers over the vaccine rollout and the sexual assault allegations that have rocked parliament.

The averaged results showed the Coalition has also lost significant electoral ground across Western Australia and Queensland.

It managed to improve slightly in Victoria and remain relatively stable in NSW, but demographic and state-based analysis of the Newspoll data suggests the Coalition would need to restore support in the ­resource states to retain government.

On a two-party-preferred basis, the Coalition trails Labor 49-51 per cent averaged over the past four Newspolls compared with a lead of 51-49 in the December analysis.

Political scientist Haydon Manning said a question mark – not seen since the bushfire crisis – had emerged over the Morrison Government in the wake of sexual harassment allegations at parliament.

“There is reason to believe the government is drifting, losing ground,” Dr Manning said.

“They’re not showing they are in a losing position.”

Mr Morrison has an opportunity to get the government running the agenda again with the federal budget, but vaccine rollout issues may “hurt” them, Dr Manning said.

A federal election could be held as early as August 7, or as late as May 2021.

Labor held a 38 per cent primary over the January to March quarter.