South Australian state election 2026: Peter Malinauskas is clear favourite to win | Paul Starick

Premier Peter Malinauskas is an overwhelming election favourite – even with a chequered record in office, Paul Starick writes.

South Australians will go to the polls in a year’s time, on March 21, for an election that already is looking like a fait accompli.

The numbers are stacked in favour of the Malinauskas Labor government to win a second term, even with a chequered record of achievement in office thus far.

Senior business leaders, who should be a core Liberal constituency, are giving up hope of the Opposition presenting a viable alternative – one condemned a “lack of policy ideas and brain power”.

Opposition Leader Vincent Tarzia is fighting valiantly to turn his troops into a professional outfit but even party loyalists are bemoaning a lack of energy and ideas from key front benchers.

SA’s 2026 election already is looking like a fait accompli, according to Paul Starick. Picture: NewsWire / Tim Joy

Vincent Tarzia is fighting valiantly to turn his troops into a professional outfit, but even party loyalists are bemoaning a lack of energy and ideas from key front benchers. Picture: Keryn Stevens

Premier Peter Malinauskas’s immediate challenge is crushing signs of arrogance creeping into his troops, who reasonably would have an expectation of repeating or exceeding their 2022 landslide victory.

The delay in a federal election from April to May has done Mr Tarzia no great favours. He has, at least, managed to bring some stability to the party since last August taking over from the erratic David Speirs.

But the diminished Liberals will continue to struggle for relevancy and oxygen during the drawn-out federal campaign and likely subsequent horse-trading for minority government.

This cuts the window for policy release. The Liberals have failed to unveil any substantive economic policy or direction. As Advertiser columnist and former federal Liberal leader Alexander Downer has reminded the SA Liberals, John Howard always said that you can’t fatten the pig on market day.

Mr Tarzia will face Mr Malinauskas in a SA Press Club leaders’ debate next Friday in a sold-out event timed a year out from the state election. This, at least, is likely to be a better contest than the poll a year later.

Mr Malinauskas and Mr Tarzia will face off in an SA Press Club leaders’ debate next Friday. Picture: NewsWire / Roy VanDerVegt

While he might lack any substantive alternative, Mr Tarzia is, at least, armed with plenty of ammunition with which to attack his rival. Mr Malinauskas has failed on his two flagship election promises: to fix the ambulance ramping crisis and deliver a $593m Hydrogen Jobs Plan.

It is a testament to the Premier’s political skill that he has neutralised these failures by switching focus to a reduction in ambulance response times and ousting Sanjeev Gupta’s GFG Alliance from Whyalla steelworks to deliver a $2.4bn state/federal rescue plan.

Mr Malinauskas and a few key ministers are carrying the government. Few frontbenchers can point to any great record of achievement.

As one senior business leader said: “The reality is Mali can’t fix everything. That’s nothing against Mali. No one can fix everything. What Mali has shown is a willingness to use his political capital – of which he has an abundance – as best he can to affect change.

“The real issue the Liberals have is not only their limited ability to hold the government to account but the lack of policy ideas and brain power that is required to make them a legitimate alternative.”

Peter Malinauskas (second from left) with Vice Admiral Jonathan Dallas Mead, Richard Marles and Andrew Hastie. Picture: Brett Hartwig

Undoubtedly, Mr Malinauskas has presided over a state growing in confidence, aided by highlights including AFL Gather Round and the influential Business Council of Australia declaring SA the nation’s best place to do business.

The Premier’s economic agenda is headlined by the $368bn AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine project, centred on Osborne Naval Shipyard, and BHP’s multibillion-dollar copper expansion.

These are transformational projects that Mr Malinauskas has inherited. He has, appropriately and deservedly, given them full-throated support.

Mr Malinauskas has styled himself on interventionist premier Tom Playford, who industrialised the state with great success.

His long-term objective is to expand the middle class by creating a more prosperous, complex economy, fuelled by thriving enterprise and underpinned by high levels of education and research and development.

Some progress has been made in three years but there is a long way to go before this is the Malinauskas government’s legacy.