Shannon Deery: Shift away from major parties shows no seat safe ahead of Victorian election

State Labor insiders fear massive swings away from the party in heartland seats is just a warm up for the anti-Dan movement ahead.

The Victorians Party hopes to replicate the performance of the so-called teal independents at the state election. Picture: Alex Coppel

The shift away from the major parties has spooked both sides of politics ahead of November’s state election.

Amid the results were warnings for both Daniel Andrews and Matthew Guy that if ignored would spell certain defeat at the ballot box.

State Labor insiders believe massive swings away from the party in heartland seats were just a warm up for what’s ahead. They believe it’s a Dan thing.

The double digit swings in Labor stronghold seats are being blamed on anti-government sentiment resulting from two years of pandemic pain.

While the Liberals also copped a beating on their primary vote, in key Labor seats it was negligible.

Take Gorton, where there was a 10 per cent shift away from Labor. The swing against the Liberals was a mere 0.72 per cent. In Scullin, were Labor dropped more than 14 per cent from its primary, the Liberals lost just 0.67 per cent. And in Fraser, where the swing against Labor was 8 per cent, the Liberals increased their vote share.

The long-held belief that Andrews was toxic for Labor’s vote because of his heavy handed Covid response failed to translate at the ballot box. But that might not follow at a state level.

In Victoria the swing against Labor was seven times the national average. Only Tasmania recorded a larger swing against the ALP.

The swing against Labor was seven times the national average. Picture: AAP

“I think Dan’s in for an absolute kicking,” one veteran Labor insider says.

“Scott Morrison and his face was the single defining issue of the federal election. Come November, Dan could have the same problem,” they say.

There is of course a difference between being polarising and being loathed.

Where Andrews enjoys the strong support of a dedicated #IStandWithDan crowd, the former PM enjoyed no such loyalty. But Andrews himself isn’t the only problem.

Where Morrison was plagued by sex scandals within the party, Andrews is embroiled in corruption inquiries.

Where Morrison battled claims of misogyny, Victorian Labor is at the centre of a WorkSafe investigation into bullying claims by former MP Kaushaliya Vaghela.

Then there’s Victoria’s fatal health crisis and record debt levels.

It makes for a hard sell. Which is why for some time Victorian Liberals have quietly harboured hope of a November victory. That, if the cards fell their way, they could do just enough to work their way into government.

And that with an increasingly under siege government playing in their favour, all they would have to do is position themselves as a viable alternative to the tired incumbents.

After all, oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them.

For many the federal election has all but dashed the hopes of a stunning come from behind victory that would reverse impact of the great Danslide of 2018.

Some believe the Victorian branch of the Liberal Party is facing its greatest challenge. Picture: Jake Nowakowski

The party has been left spooked by the fall of, until now, the safest of Liberal seats including the jewel in the crown of Liberal Victoria, Kooyong.

In the wake of the party being all but wiped off the map in Melbourne, some Liberals believe the Victorian branch of the party is facing the greatest challenge in its history.

And that without very serious changes in the coming period, particularly to the administrative wing of the party, the state Opposition will face a WA-style annihilation.

The drubbing of the party in the west — left with just two lower house seats at last year’s March election — must have served as forewarning for its Victorian cousins.

But if it did, there has been little evidence of that.

Preselections for the state election remain unresolved, and there appears to be a lack of planning or resources being pumped into winnable seats.

Seats in Labor’s traditional heartland, where there has been a shift against the government amid angst over the effect of the pandemic and lockdowns, are now in play.

Former Victorian Liberal deputy state director Tony Barry says the Liberals have lost their base.

“The Liberal Party needs an enema,” he says.

“It starts with branch members taking responsibility for preselecting better candidates, including young professional women, who share the values of mainstream voters.

Josh Frydenberg became the face of voter dissatisfaction at major parties. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

“Liberal Party headquarters also needs a total cleanout, it’s been a basket case for 10 years now. The Victorian Liberal campaign advertisements over the last two campaigns have been comically bad.”

In 40 years the Libs have won just three of 11 elections.

And just four times in the party’s history have they won government from opposition: in 1947, 1955, 1992 (Jeff Kennett) and 2010 (Ted Baillieu).

This year they need to claw back 18 seats to form a government with a one-seat majority. It’s been done before.

In 1982 John Cain won 17 seats to beat Lindsay Thompson for the top job, ending 27 years of Liberal government.

In 1992 Kennett won government from Joan Kirner, picking up 19 seats. Steve Bracks picked up 20 in 2002 to win his second term in government.

Of course different factors underpinned those results: Liberal fatigue in 1982, a budget crisis in 1992 and the roaring popularity of Bracks in 2002.

A key difference come November will be the addition of new political outfit the Victorians Party, which believes it can win a handful of seats.

Like the so-called teal independents, they hope to attracted disaffected voters from the major parties and hope to hold the balance of power. And they are much more likely to favour the Liberals in preference deals.

Party co-founder Bill Lang says there are plans to field candidates in every electorate.

The one thing both Andrews and Guy should be sure of is that given the political shift, there’s no longer any such thing as a safe seat.

Originally published as Shannon Deery: Shift away from major parties shows no seat safe ahead of Victorian election