Shannon Deery: Federal election results offer plenty of lessons for state contest

The federal election proves the political ground is moving for major parties, and that could pave the way for this party to make big moves in the state election.

With a state election now just six months away there are lessons to be learned from the federal result.

For Daniel Andrews the message couldn’t be clearer, the power of incumbency during a pandemic is gone.

Matthew Guy will need to redefine what his party stands for, and who it’s trying to appeal to.

Both leaders will need to grapple with the fact that voters are turning their backs on the major parties.

Significant swings against them were felt across the state, including in key heartland electorates, as voters instead turned to independents and minor parties.

But where Labor was able to hold on to keys seats across Melbourne, the Liberal Party was all but wiped off the map.

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrew with Prime Minister-elect Anthony Albanese earlier this month. Picture: Luis Enrique Ascui

A similar result at a state level would see Guy lose his seat.

The long held belief that Andrews was toxic for Labor’s vote because of his heavy handed Covid response failed to translate at the ballot box.

While there was most definitely a backlash, felt hardest across Labor’s working class electorates, it failed to see seats change hands.

Because while most of the lockdown aggrieved are concentrated in the outer western suburbs, the Liberal Party doesn’t have the resources to capitalise on that shift in voter sentiment.

It has raised questions about the party’s ability to properly organise and recruit.

“It’s walked away from a range of its heartlands, and it’s paid the price,” one senior source said.

“It’s also paid the price of internal bickering over the last decade, they’ve been fighting among themselves rather than looking at what they need to do for the community.”

Most Liberals believe there is no silver lining for the party.

“There is no point championing pyrrhic victories in Labor heartland if they see the basic building blocks of the party wiped out,” another source said.

Victorian Opposition Leader Matthew Guy. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

However with the political ground moving for both parties, it provides opportunity to capitalise.

While new political outfit the Victorians Party will seek to replicate what the teal independents did on a federal level, those opportunities exist for both the Liberals and Labor too.

There is a question mark too over whether or not the teals will seek to protect their new-found territory at a state level.

The policy contest and context at a state level will be vastly different to the federal fight.

In particular health issues which didn’t play out to be an issue at the federal election will be a dominant issue at the state election.

And with the nature of how the health crisis is going, it could provide a dramatic swing against the government.

Originally published as Shannon Deery: Federal election results offer plenty of lessons for state contest