Samantha Maiden: The idea that Australians need to be protected from the research is nonsense

By the time cooler heads had their say on predictions of 200,000 Australia Covid cases per day, all hell had already broken loose, writes Samantha Maiden.

Doomsday predictions that Australia can expect up to 200,000 Covid-19 cases a day in the new year made headlines this week.

By the time cooler heads cautioned that the prediction might prove overcooked, the horse had bolted.

The Doherty Institute’s secret advice to federal, state and territory leaders was supposed to provide the backdrop to private discussions about boosters and Omicron.

Instead, it leaked to the media and all hell promptly broke loose.

The research predicted surging infections could see hospitalisation rates to 4000 a day, with between 8000 and 10,000 patients admitted to ICUs.

“Boosters alone will not be fast enough to halt the spread of Omicron,” the modelling states.

“Looking at the impact of increasing uptake over time, a rapid booster program would likely enable control with minimal public health safety measures by end of March,” the epidemiologists wrote on Friday.

“The epidemic peak could be delayed with public health safety measures until the boosters kick in, allowing the program to have greater impact.”

Calmer heads were quick to raise concerns that those predictions seemed unlikely.

“I don’t know where they’ve come up with this modelling but it’s not based on any real world data,” Infectious disease expert Professor Peter Collignon said.

“They are assumptions that do not correlate to anything we’ve seen before in summer in any other country.

“If there were 200,000 cases a day, the whole of Australia would be infected in just a few months. That hasn’t happened anywhere in the world.”

Chief medical officer Paul Kelly criticised “selective and misleading media reporting” of the data.

Former deputy CMO Nick Coatsworth went further, suggesting the leaker (presumably a state official or a health bureaucrat) was a threat to the nation.

“Whoever leaked the Doherty modelling without context has committed a gross injustice to the Australian people,” Dr Coatsworth said.

Australian chief medical officer Professor Paul Kelly. Picture: Gary Ramage

The idea that Australians need to be protected from the research, however, is nonsense. What is needed is more transparency, not more secrecy.

The modelling should be made public so everyone can see it. Then, they can judge for themselves whether its worth getting terrified about.

For example, the modelling assumes that Omicron is not only more transmissible than Delta but that it causes severe disease.

There’s early evidence it may be more transmissible but also that it’s less severe.

Scott Morrison described it as a worst-case scenario.

“I just want to exercise some real caution on that,’’ the Prime Minister said. “I mean, those scenarios are worst-case scenarios that assume there’s no surge capacity in hospitals, that Omicron’s the same as Delta, that no one takes, you know, sensible behavioural responses in what they’re doing, there’s no change in the booster program – and all of those, one of those, let alone all of them, are completely unlikely.

“So I wouldn’t want to alarm people over that report. That is, that is not what we’re actually expecting to happen. There are a range of scenarios. But I would say this – of course the number of Omicron cases will increase. It’s highly infectious. But the indications are that it is not as severe, and our hospitals, particularly in NSW and Victoria, have been coping extremely well.”

Covid testing at Victoria Park in Adelaide. Picture: Keryn Stevens

Of course, the decision of Mr Morrison to call an unscheduled emergency meeting probably provided a clue that the hot, vaccinated summer we’ve all been promised isn’t going entirely to plan.

The Prime Minister insists that state premiers should resist reimposing lockdowns.

“The time for that heavy hand is behind us. We just need to live with this virus sensibly and practically,’’ he said.

Meanwhile, masks are back across the country. They are already compulsory for retail shopping in Victoria and Queensland and for indoor events in South Australia, Tasmania, and the ACT.

“You know, you should be wearing (masks) anyway. You don’t have to wait to be told in this country,’’ Mr Morrison said.

“Particularly for young people, can I encourage you on this? Because that is where Omicron is moving most rapidly, among young people.”

But the really alarming statistic remains the fact that there are 3.2 million Australians eligible for a booster shot but only 1.5 million have taken up the offer so far.

Booking a booster is easy if you know how to navigate online booking services like HotDoc. But not so easy if you’re not computer savvy.

Despite some people struggling to find an appointment there’s no supply shortage, according to the latest Commonwealth figures. It’s just a confusing matrix to book an appointment.

By this stage in the pandemic it should be a lot more streamlined. The information on government websites explaining how to book and where to book a vaccine could be clearer.

But it’s not.

And it’s another sign that the vaccine rollout could still do with some improvements.