‘Extreme case scenario’ PM weighs in on prediction of 200,000 cases a day

Australia’s top doctor has weighed in on expert modelling showing the Omicron variant of Covid could cause 200,000 daily cases in Australia.

One of Australia’s former highest ranking medical professionals has slammed the person responsible for leaking the “worst case scenario” Covid-19 modelling.

Former deputy chief medical officer Nick Coatsworth labelled the leak of the Doherty Institute’s extreme predictions to national cabinet “without context” a “gross injustice to the Australian people”.

It comes as Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his chief medical officer downplayed experts’ predictions Australia could record up to 200,000 Covid-19 cases a day by late January.

The modelling, released by the Doherty Institute ahead of Wednesday’s national cabinet meeting, is based on low-to-medium restrictions being in place.

It assumes that “boosters alone will not be fast enough to halt the spread of Omicron”.

Fast-growing case numbers would lift hospitalisation rates to 4000 per day, which would push emergency departments to breaking point, while up to 10,000 patients could be admitted to intensive care.

Mr Morrison said those numbers were an “extreme case scenario” and were based on the assumption that “no one exercises commonsense”.

“We saw similar numbers at the start of the pandemic that were never realised,” he told Sunrise.

“The chief medical officer and I just want to assure people that those sorts of numbers are not what we expect. They are extreme scenarios.”

Australia’s top doctor Nick Coatsworth slammed the leak of Covid modelling as a ‘gross injustice to the Australian people’

Scott Morrison has urged Australians to take the Doherty Institute’s modelling of 200,000 Covid-19 cases a day with a grain of salt. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Dan Peled

Mr Morrison said in addition to ensuring people got their booster dose, Australians should approach Covid-19 like protecting themselves from the sun.

“It’s like wearing sunscreen and a hat … Wear a mask indoors in public areas, wash your hands,” he said.

“And particularly for young people, because that is where Omicron is moving most rapidly … Be conscious of those sensible things.”

People are being urged to get vaccinated. Picture: Jeff Pachoud/AFP

The modelling assumes only baseline public health safety measures are in place and that Omicron causes equally severe disease as the Delta strain.

A hard lockdown could suppress Omicron by the end of January, assuming 60 to 80 per cent of the population receive a third dose by then.

“Looking at the impact of increasing uptake over time, a rapid booster program would likely enable control with minimal public health safety measures by end of March,” the modellers reportedly wrote.

“The epidemic peak could be delayed with public health safety measures until the boosters kick in, allowing the program to have greater impact.”

Chief medical officer Professor Paul Kelly said he was “confident” that Australia could continue to “effectively manage the Covid-19 pandemic” and urged Australians to take the “selective and misleading reporting about ongoing modelling” with a grain of salt.

He said: “Recent modelling presents a range of potential scenarios as a result of the Omicron variant... It is just one of a range of tools and cannot be viewed in isolation.

“Australia has a world class Covid-19 response and this has meant the numbers modelled previously, particularly early int he pandemic, have not been realised. Early modelling in 2020 at the start of the outbreak suggested that there would be 35,000 ICU beds required within 17 weeks of an uncontrolled outbreak - this was never realised.

“Omicron is here in Australia, it will be an unwanted guest with us for Christmas, but we can and must do what we can to reduce its impact on each of us and our loved ones.”

Professor Kelly said right now, ensuring eligible Australians got their booster shot and some level of public health measures were necessary to keep Omicron under control.

Mr Morrison said he would urge all states and territories to agree to some “commonality” on restrictions when national cabinet meets on Wednesday.

Originally published as ‘Extreme case scenario’ PM weighs in on prediction of 200,000 cases a day