Paul Starick: Vickie Chapman is a contender for next SA treasurer

As veteran Rob Lucas prepares to deliver his final budget, Deputy Premier Vickie Chapman is a strong contender to replace him. Paul Starick analyses her chances.

Deputy Premier Vickie Chapman is rarely mentioned in speculation when the top end of town discusses who might replace Rob Lucas as treasurer.

But the case for her to replace Mr Lucas is growing, thanks to factors including her political acumen and the imperative for Premier Steven Marshall to promote women.

Mr Lucas, who hands down his final state budget on Tuesday, at next March’s state election will end a political career spanning almost 40 years.

He is vowing to stay as treasurer until that poll, set for March 19, and campaign fervently to re-elect Premier Steven Marshall’s government.

Should the Liberals be re-elected, the plum treasury job will be up for grabs. Should Labor win, Opposition treasury spokesman Stephen Mullighan, assuming he is re-elected, will take the role. For betting types, the Liberals are at $1.55 to win government and Labor is a $2.45.

It is reasonable to conclude that Mr Marshall has been giving the treasurer’s job some thought and, most likely, discussed it with Mr Lucas at their weekly Sunday morning coffee meetings at Norwood.

It is almost universally agreed among senior Liberals that Mr Lucas’s successor will be drawn from those who sit on the Budget Cabinet Committee (BCC), which meets fortnightly.

Apart from Mr Marshall and Mr Lucas, the BCC members are: John Gardner (Education Minister), David Speirs (Environment and Water), Dan van Holst Pellekaan (Energy and Mining) and Ms Chapman (Attorney-General).

Usually, the male trio are considered favourites, particularly Mr Gardner and Mr van Holst Pellekaan. Both are quite impressive parliamentary performers.

But Ms Chapman, who was elected to the eastern suburbs seat of Bragg in 2002, outranks them, is more experienced and, thanks to her legal background, is a confident, measured and precise performer.

Premier Steven Marshall, Attorney-General Vickie Chapman & Minister Rachel Sanderson at Old Parliament House for a press conference in February Picture: Naomi Jellicoe

When The Advertiser in February speculated that her substantial agenda for social change, including abortion and domestic violence law reform, would stop her coveting the treasury, influential Liberals swiftly contradicted this.

They declared Ms Chapman a leading contender and highlighted that, as deputy premier, she carried significant influence over the Premier, who chooses ministerial portfolios. If anything, Ms Chapman’s credentials have been bolstered since then. Passing abortion and euthanasia reforms have been significant political and legal achievements, whatever her internal and external opponents’ views of their merits.

Ms Chapman’s opponent, Labor deputy leader Susan Close, played a key role in steering the euthanasia laws through the lower house. But the former education minister, elected in 2012, has assumed a remarkably low public and parliamentary profile, particularly when compared to Ms Chapman. Dr Close’s Facebook page shows appearances in her Port Adelaide electorate and at Labor forums, along with a June 9 parliamentary question to Mr Speirs about why the National Trust was being required to leave Ayers House.

Labor MP Susan Close, Labor MLC Kyam Maher and Go Gentle founder and well known broadcaster Andrew Denton at Parliament House before a candlelight vigil in support of the Voluntary Assisted Dying Bill. Picture: Supplied

Dr Close is the most senior of seven women on Labor’s 14-person front bench. Ms Chapman is the most senior of three women in the 14-person ministry.

Ms Chapman’s opponents accuse her of having disproportionately large influence over the government’s agenda. The same cannot be said for Dr Close, despite her credentials and competence.

In particular, she is overshadowed by former Labor treasurer Tom Koutsantonis. He clearly was a driving force behind Labor’s $593 million plan for a hydrogen-fired power station, which was unveiled in March. Mr Koutsantonis, as Labor’s treasurer from 2014 to 2018, was an early convert to the emergence of hydrogen as an important future energy source.

Mr Koutsantonis is Labor’s dominant parliamentary voice. This is both a measure of his role as Leader of Opposition Business and his experience at getting under the skin of his Liberal opponents.

Labor frontbencher Tom Koutsantonis during question time at Parliament House. Picture: Tom Huntley

But his dominance sidelines others, particularly those who sit near him – Dr Close and, to a lesser degree, Opposition Leader Peter Malinauskas.

This has been seized upon by the Liberals, who in the May 11-13 parliamentary sitting taunted Mr Koutsantonis to suggest he was the real Labor leader.

A similar charge is regularly made by Labor about Ms Chapman, suggesting she covets Mr Marshall’s job.

It is Mr Lucas, though, who has been the power behind the Premier’s throne. His exit from the political stage begins on Tuesday. After that, perhaps unkindly, he could be referred to as a lame duck treasurer.

The race to replace him will then begin – both among Liberals and Labor opponents wanting to topple them.