Premier Steven Marshall’s challenge to replace Treasurer Rob Lucas during economic crisis

In the middle of a never-before-seen economic crisis, SA’s experienced Treasurer is quitting. So who will the Premier pick to replace him?

Way back in 1982, Australia’s number one song was Survivor’s Eye of the Tiger and, appropriately as it turned out, political survivor Rob Lucas was elected to the South Australian Legislative Council.

More than 38 years later, Mr Lucas is the linchpin of Premier Steven Marshall’s Liberal state government, a Treasurer who is at the height of his political powers. His combination of experience, acumen, financial expertise and sharp humour are invaluable to his colleagues, particularly during an unprecedented economic crisis. Mr Marshall, who on Thursday marked the eighth anniversary of his election as state Liberal leader, has met Mr Lucas for coffee and political counsel every Sunday morning since February 2013.

But the Premier now must start confronting life after Mr Lucas, 67, who continues to resist numerous determined and high-powered attempts to reverse his decision to retire after the next election.

This is a major challenge, given the magnitude of the task facing Mr Lucas’s successor – not least to steer the state through the financial turbulence of a $1.9 billion deficit and debt soaring towards $30 billion. As SA’s most senior federal Liberal, Finance Minister Simon Birmingham, said on Friday morning, the pandemic presents the “biggest global economic challenge of our lifetimes”.

The loss of the only Liberal who had ministerial experience when the party won government in 2018 – Mr Lucas was treasurer from 1997 to 2002 – opens a clear line of attack for a Labor Party battling to gain traction.

As a senior Labor strategist observed: “The first thing I’d be saying is that there is going to be a P-plater with no experience in the job once Lucas leaves.”

It is understood Mr Marshall will keep Mr Lucas in the Treasury portfolio until the next election, which is on March 19, 2022. The Premier signalled this on July 26 last year. “Can I just make it really clear? I don’t expect any reshuffle between now and the next election … I’m not going to make any further reshuffle,” Mr Marshall said. The obvious conclusion is that Mr Lucas will remain Treasurer until the election. Several senior Liberals have confirmed this.

It is also understood the Premier is considering naming his intended successor as Treasurer in the months before the election. One advantage of this would be to spike a Labor charge that the public would be entitled to know, before an election, who would manage the books in a re-elected government.

Mr Lucas, however, is understood to be strongly counselling against this move. The argument is that state elections focus on the leaders and the weapon of incumbency is even more powerful than usual, given the state’s strong pandemic performance. Mr Marshall would attempt to defuse the issue of treasury succession by arguing he had a strong team with numerous options and, should the Liberals be fortunate enough to be re-elected, he would then decide on a Treasurer.

Eye of the tiger: Treasurer Rob Lucas and Premier Steven Marshall leave Parliament House with the 2019 Budget papers. (AAP Image/Kelly Barnes)

The successor is expected to be one of John Gardner (Education Minister), David Speirs (Environment and Water) and Dan van Holst Pellekaan (Energy and Mining). Along with Mr Marshall, Mr Lucas and Deputy Premier Vickie Chapman, all sit on the Budget Cabinet Committee (BCC), which meets fortnightly.

Senior Liberals said there was no obvious favourite but some leaned towards Mr van Holst Pellekaan, a former BP executive and outback roadhouse owner/operator who holds a Bachelor of Economics. His portfolio requires him to deal with business and financial leaders, unlike the other contenders. He replaced on the BCC former leading contender Stephan Knoll, after he last December declared he would quit politics at the next election for family reasons. “Dan’s boring enough for the role. It’s almost a prerequisite for being a Treasurer,” one senior Liberal said jocularly.

Mr Lucas held the Education portfolio for almost four years before John Olsen made him treasurer, making well-connected moderate John Gardner a strong chance. Mr Gardner is overseeing a large school campus redevelopment program and next year’s introduction of Year 7 to high school – both of which are viewed as testing his political and financial management skills.

Both Mr Gardner and Mr Speirs are considered very thorough – ministers in the Lucas mould – who read every document for Cabinet’s twice-weekly meetings and ask pertinent questions. Mr Speirs is considered by his colleagues as a capable political salesman, even though he is said to dislike dealing with the media.

The best qualified to succeed Mr Lucas is Mr Marshall, who holds an MBA from the UK’s prestigious Durham University. But he is almost certain not to embrace the past tradition of premiers like Sir Tom Playford, Don Dunstan, John Bannon and even Jay Weatherill doubling as treasurers, believing this unsuitable for modern times. It is now difficult to juggle the demands of leadership with keeping tight control of the purse strings.

As Attorney-General, Ms Chapman has a substantial agenda for social change, including abortion and domestic violence, which she is considered likely to focus on rather than coveting the treasury.

Whoever takes over from Mr Lucas will be a relative novice compared to state parliament’s longest survivor. Their task, to paraphrase Eye of the Tiger (Rocky III’s theme song), is to embrace the thrill of the political fight as Mr Lucas has and successfully rise up to the biggest economic challenge of our lifetimes.