Paul Starick: How the River Murray floods will test SA Premier Peter Malinauskas

Scott Morrison didn’t hold a hose, Covid eventually helped topple Steven Marshall – so what will floods mean for Peter Malinauskas, asks Paul Starick.

Back in early July, Premier Peter Malinauskas took leave during the school holidays to spend time with his family, vowing to work through summer to ensure he was available in the event of a bushfire inferno.

Little did the Premier – or many South Australians for that matter – suspect the regions along the Murray River would be swamped with floodwaters, rather than sunshine, during his first summer in the state’s top job.

Complicating the situation, the substantial spring rains have swollen the fuel load for bushfires across the state.

This heightens the need for community preparation to limit any potential for a twin fire and flood crisis.

Premier Peter Malinauskas speaks to SES workers at Mannum in the Riverland region of South Australia on Tuesday. Picture: AAP/Matt Turner

There is a race against time to prepare for the onslaught of floodwaters. This is a natural disaster for which governments cannot be blamed. But the response of Mr Malinauskas’s government to the first major emergency on his watch will be closely scrutinised by voters and his political opponents – as it should be.

This test can make or break a leader. Scott Morrison’s infamous comment that: “I don’t hold a hose, mate” during the 2020 summer bushfire inferno destroyed his reputation and came to encapsulate widespread loathing of his character.

In January, 2020, Prime Minister Scott Morrison was rebuked when he visited bushfire affected communities in NSW. The PM was heckled by locals in Cobargo, along with a young pregnant woman and an RFS firefighter refusing to shake his hand. Picture: Supplied

The Premier’s predecessor, Steven Marshall, spearheaded a Covid-19 response that was among the world’s best – at least until the final hurdle of reopening state borders. The measures designed to keep people safe became an irritant in the lead-up to the March 19 election, which Labor won in a landslide with a health-dominated campaign.

The moment of truth for Mr Malinauskas and his ministers is coming fast. The Liberals are already accusing them of a flat-footed response. We will soon learn if they’re correct.

A statement on Thursday from Mr Malinauskas and Emergency Services Minister Joe Szakacs said there was a high probability of Murray River flows in upstream SA of 175 gigalitre a day by early December.

“It is predicted that the river is set to rise rapidly over the next fortnight before briefly flattening and rising again. Current forecasting for this second peak flow is within the range of previous peak flow forecasts, with a high probability of it reaching at least 185 GL/day, a moderate probability of 200 GL/day and a lower probability of 220GL/day.

“River communities should consider this as part of their flood emergency preparedness and factor in potential road and ferry closures, disruptions to the power network and reduced services.”

Steven Marshall leaves Norwood’s Robin Hood Hotel after conceding election defeat in March. Picture: Tom Huntley

Intriguingly, Mr Malinauskas compared and contrasted the floods to bushfires and Covid-19 when asked by The Advertiser on Monday to describe the scale of the emergency and the professional challenge it posed.

“For many of the people who are affected it’s a bigger deal than Covid but for the number of people who are affected it’s nothing like Covid,” Mr Malinauskas said.

“ … So all we can do is prepare as best as possible. It’s also slow-moving. A bushfire it might happen one day, there’s 48 hours of devastation, then you start responding – whereas this is going to be more protracted.

“We face the real possibility of peaks in December, early January, but higher river flows well into January and February. So for the people that it does affect it could be protracted, which means that it’s a different type of event, which requires a different type of response.”

There will be significant damage and the floodwaters will linger for some time. This was the underlying message of the $51.6m “initial” financial assistance package unveiled on Tuesday, which included grants of $400 and $1000 for individuals and families forced to evacuate their homes. This money, understandably, is being deployed as needed, with impact on the state budget a secondary consideration.

Premier Peter Malinauskas at the Waikerie ferry. Picture: Emma Brasier

But the economic outlook is worsening. As a Deloitte employment forecast released on Wednesday bluntly said: “Increasing cost-of-living pressures and rising imports are set to slow the South Australian economy.” Pandemic spending has waned but the public sector continues to “make an outsized contribution to economic growth”, Deloitte says. Much of this is in extra recurrent spending to meet Labor election promises on extra ambulance services and hospital beds. Unemployment has waned in 2022, Deloitte says, but this is expected to “trend upward through 2023”.

A flood crisis in the Murray foodbowl follows huge Covid-19 expenditure and a rising tide of debt. We cannot afford too many more crises. But we cannot and must not abandon the people living and working along the River Murray during the coming emergency and their time of desperate need.