Paul Starick: Four leaders with huge challenges in Adelaide on one day

Huge challenges are faced by the four political leaders in Adelaide on Friday – and we don’t even know who one is.

Four leaders. All of them in Adelaide on Friday. Each of them facing huge challenges. One of them is still unknown.

There’s Premier Peter Malinauskas, a once-in-a-generation politician who is now facing the enormous task of turning his leadership potential into reality.

Then there’s federal Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese, who polls and bookies brand the overwhelming favourite to be prime minister within weeks – yet he remains a largely unknown quantity to the general public despite more than a quarter of a century in the federal parliament.

The state Liberal leader remains Steven Marshall, who was trounced by Mr Malinauskas at the March 19 election and almost lost his eastern Adelaide seat of Dunstan.

Finally, there’s a future state Liberal leader out there somewhere. It had been thought that former environment minister David Speirs was the heir-elect but former speaker Josh Teague declared his hand on Friday.

Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese (third from left) in Adelaide with federal Labor’s environment and water spokeswoman Terri Butler, Labor’s Boothby candidate Louise Miller-Frost, Premier Peter Malinauskas and Opposition enate Leader Penny Wong, They are pictured at Pinky Flat. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Naomi Jellicoe

Whoever ends up leading the Liberals faces the extraordinary mission of retrieving a party from a historical low point. The party was crushed after just one term in government. There were huge swings against the Liberals, turning once-safe seats into marginals. At the looming federal election, there is the strong prospect of them being turned out of office and left with just two seats in SA – perhaps even only one.

This reinforces the scale of the opportunity before Mr Malinauskas. The times suit him, as he suggested in his well-crafted speech to Canberra’s National Press Club on Wednesday. From some time before the March 19 election, he correctly judged that voters were looking for a future agenda, rather than looking to return Mr Marshall based on his mostly strong performance on managing the economy and the Covid-19 pandemic.

Mr Malinauskas has correctly defined his central challenge – to deliver upon an ambitious election agenda. Put bluntly, the self-described “pretty average football player” has talked a big political game and now it’s time to kick some goals as premier.

Mr Albanese is about to be tested in the heat of campaign battle. He’s already facing criticism for pursuing a small-target strategy, for hoping to secure office by capitalising on antipathy toward Prime Minister Scott Morrison.

Certainly, Mr Albanese cannot be accused of lacking experience. He has held almost every senior office except Prime Minister. He was a cabinet minister from 2007 to 2013 and deputy PM for almost three months in 2013.

But Labor figures are wary – they know the bitter pain of losing when you’re expected to win. Federal Labor lacks the defining issue that ambulance ramping became for their state counterparts. Mr Morrison has presided over an extraordinary economic rebound from the pandemic-induced recession. Petrol prices have come down after the March 29 excise cut – a hip-pocket measure voters will be reminded of every time they fill up. Will voters trust his government with economic management, even if they don’t necessarily trust him?

The SA Liberals are feeling the pain of overconfidence. They seemed to truly believe that Mr Malinauskas could be dispatched like Mark Latham in 2004 – condemned by the public as an L-plated union boss.

The-then premier Steven Marshall watches the-then environment and water Minister David Speirs on February 26 at Felixstow Reserve, where he announced funds to restore wildlife to the area. Picture: Brenton Edwards

As previously mentioned, the scale of the Liberal wreckage does not seem to have been fully appreciated, particularly by some in their own ranks. They will remain an unprofessional organisation whilever they are more preoccupied with generations-old factional enmities than winning elections. With this in mind, it is almost inconceivable that the Liberals did not even call one of Australia’s foremost political strategists, former SA party director, senator and federal finance minister Nick Minchin, to assist in their campaign – as he did in 2018. He is, after all, a federal Liberal vice-president and, as a Right faction leader, would have offered some important counterbalance to the Moderate-dominated government.

Whoever assumes the Liberal leadership will necessarily aim to win in 2026. Mr Malinauskas has shown a one-term strategy can succeed beyond expectations. But the Liberals lack Labor’s coherent structure, professionalism and ruthless desire to win. In footy terms, they lack a bit of mongrel. One term in government has not helped them overcome the timidity and passiveness they displayed in years of opposition.

We live in interesting times in state and federal politics. The febrile climate has been intensified by the pandemic. The next few months will be decisive in determining the long-term winners and losers.