Matthew Abraham: Why the disrupters will prevail at the next state election

In 2021, people take leaps of faith on accommodation platforms, online food delivery and even politicians. The Premier better wise up to that fast, writes Matthew Abraham.

The white sheets on Alice’s bed had just a sleepy hint of lavender.

Once my head hit the pillow, I was out like a moggy in front of a log fire. My wife and I both had a great sleep in Alice’s bed.

Alice? Who the heck is Alice? We don’t know. We’ve never met the lass, but we do know she keeps a spotless house tucked away behind a front yard full of roses and busy new holland honeyeaters, in a neat cul-de-sac in downtown McLaren Vale.

We stayed in her house last weekend, booking it online with Airbnb, now a global marketplace where people rent their homes, or even single rooms, to travellers.

It’s a thriving system that bypasses big hotel or motel chains, and their rooms with sticky carpets and paper “sanitation” seals across the toilet seats.

As newbies to the phenomenon, it was unnerving to book accommodation, sight unseen and precise address unknown, paying upfront to stay in the home of a complete stranger.

In 2021, people take leaps of faith in all kinds of areas, from booking accommodation, sight unseen, on apps like Airbnb, to voting for their local MPs, writes Matthew Abraham.

t was a leap of faith but one that couldn’t have worked out better. The whole world is now taking similar leaps of faith, millions of times a day.

Feeling peckish and lazy? Simply get a meal home-delivered by bicycle, pedalled by a stranger strapped to a giant insulated backpack.

Why then, are our major political parties always so surprised when they lose “safe” seats to independents? And why are they so bad at handling them, usually shooting themselves in the foot while trying to blow them up? It’s a question Premier Steven Marshall would be well-advised to answer if he wants a crack at the increasingly unlikely chance of majority government after next year’s March state election.

Even the most conservative consumers are now comfortable with taking leaps of faith, turning their backs on big retailers and big brands, instead handing their hard-earned cash over to Ned or Noreen Unknown on the web.

Why should it be any different when deciding how to vote?

The latest Newspoll in The Australian confirms the swing to “others”, excluding the Greens or One Nation, is sitting on a four-year high primary vote of 13 per cent.

The last Sunday Mail YouGov poll on SA voting intentions in March had the “other” vote at 11 per cent, including the remnants of Nick Xenophon’s SA-Best. My guess is it’ll be higher in the next poll, nudging 15 per cent.

While it’s rare for an independent to win from a cold start, South Australian voters have demonstrated that when presented with a half-decent, rogue defector from a major party, they’ll give them a go.

We even do it with not terribly decent independents.

We’ve had a few doozies as “indies” but we’ve had far more shockers, time-servers and dullards bowled up by both the Labor and Liberal machines over the years, often in safe seats. No names, no pack drill.

When the now-independent MP for Kavel, Dan Cregan, recently quit the Liberal Party and then snared the plum job of Speaker in a bloodless coup, the Liberals were apoplectic with rage, one branding it the “biggest dog act”.

They implied he did it for the $150,000-a-year pay rise as Speaker. They even launched phone push-polling in his Hills seat, clumsily trying to brand him as a rat. So dumb.

Mr Cregan declared he’d do the job for a can of baked beans and would donate his pay rise to charities in his seat.

Premier Marshall said the government would have to “have a look at” whether an MP could donate his salary in this way. Dumb and dumber.

FOR A CAN OF BEANS: Kavel MP, and speaker of the Lower House, Dan Cregan. Photo; Keryn Stevens

We know the Police Commissioner is running the state but the last time I looked it wasn’t a crime to donate your own, legally earned money to charity.

Dan Cregan has gone from just another backbench MP in a grey suit to a surprisingly interesting individual.

Posing with a tin of Heinz baked beans? That’s Nick Xenophon Lite.

Here’s my fearless prediction. The four ex-Liberal independent MPs – Speaker Cregan, Sam Duluk, Fraser Ellis and Troy Bell – will all win their seats come March.

If Liberals Steve Murray and Nick McBride join the indie ranks, they’ll also hold their seats.

Former Labor MP now independent Frances Bedford will succeed in switching from Florey to win Newland.

Don’t exclude other new independents causing grief for the bricks and mortar parties.

Maybe they’ll all vanish into the ether come election night. But I’ve made my bed and will happily lie in its lavender sheets.