Matthew Abraham: Will the election be won or lost on the ‘body of policy’, or will it simply come down to the vibe?

After two years of enforced Covid austerity, the ALP is gambling that voters are ready to party, writes Matthew Abraham.

When Peter Malinauskas bared his hairy, ripped chest at the Adelaide Aquatic Centre last weekend, he wasn’t just jumping into the shallow end of the kiddies pool.

He was jumping into the shallow end of the election campaign. He wants you to join him there.

After two years of enforced Covid austerity, the ALP is gambling that voters are ready to party.

Want a new $80m taxpayer-built, government-owned pool in the north parklands? We’ll do that. Want the V8s back in the city streets before Christmas? Start your engines. Want the Crows HQ with heaps of open space at Bowden, instead of blocks of flats built by a Victorian billionaire? We’ll give it a red-hot go. Where’s the money coming from? Don’t you worry about that.

Peter Malinauskas with his daughter Eliza at the Adelaide Aquatic Centre in North Adelaide where he announced plans to redevelop the site if Labor wins the March election. Picture: Brenton Edwards

I don’t buy the Labor leader’s coy amazement that journalists are still talking about his “spontaneous” shirtless pool plunge. Oh please.

This was the political version of a Strip-O-Gram. Doesn’t he own a rashie? We should all be grateful he went for lolly bags instead of budgie smugglers in the basement department.

The Smarty Pants Unit running the ALP campaign must be high-fiving. Premier Steven Marshall can’t stop talking about it, although he gets points for comparing “Mali” to the Russian leader Vladimir Putin, who loves posing shirtless, preferably on a horse.

The election campaign’s officially only two days old, so don’t rule out the Labor leader saddling up and cracking the whip for a topless ride up Mount Lofty – our very own Mali of the Overflow.

“Quite frankly, I think he’s been working a bit too much on his body and not on his body of policy that he’s taking to the next election,” Mr Marshall quipped of his opponent.

Not a bad line. But it also points to the unknown facing all political parties as a Covid-weary community struggles to find clear air and clear thinking amid the confusion of a pandemic that won’t go away.

What do the little beggars want? Will the election be won or lost on the “body of policy”, or will it simply come down to the vibe?

So often, it’s the vibe that does it. And it doesn’t take much more than a tickle.

The bedrock policy differences between a Marshall Government and a potential Malinauskas Government are wafer-thin. Neither party has been so dumb as to float a policy that’ll scare the horses, like a new tax.

The Marshall Government’s big ticket item is the promised $662m Riverbank Arena, unveiled in March last year. Voters have had plenty of time to look at it. Maybe too much time. It’s not punching through as a juicy positive, especially among older Liberal voters, and the government knows it.

The stadium won’t lose Steven Marshall the election, but it won’t win it for him, either. His hopes rest on voters giving him credit, and cutting him some slack, for handling the pandemic.

Senator Simon Birmingham and Premier of South Australia Steven Marshall at the RAAF base in Edinburgh. Picture: Morgan Sette

While he’s progressively easing Covid restrictions, many of us are progressively imposing our own. Have you noticed the growing number of young children now sporting masks at the supermarket? It’s not mandatory, but mummy and daddy are jumpy.

One experienced, conservative candidate, fresh from a round of letterboxing, put it to me during the week that Labor only needs to win an extra 300 to 400 votes in four seats to win the election.

“Your biggest campaign message needs to be completed by a fortnight from today,” the MP said. This was on Wednesday. The election writs were only issued on Friday, placing the government in “caretaker mode” and marking the proper start of the election campaign.

The election isn’t until March 19, a month away. What’s the rush?

The rush comes from the unprecedented, but surely not unexpected, surge in postal votes. Voters are spooked by Covid at the booths.

The Electoral Commission says it’s already received 18,000 postal vote applications, compared to 4000 at the same time before the 2018 election. The final figure could easily hit 40,000 by the application cut off on March 17, just two days before the actual poll.

Postal voting packs, including ballot papers, are sent after the nominations of candidates are duly declared and ballot papers are printed. The first postal vote mail-out happens on Monday March 7.

Once eligible voters get their hot little hands on those ballot papers, they can vote and post them back. Election done and dusted, for thousands, almost two weeks before polling day. Anyone fancy a dip? Come on in, the water’s fine.