Federal Election 2019: Clive Palmer eyes South Australia Senate seat

Blowing into town and telling voters they live in “backwater” isn’t a classic campaign, but drama is the game plan for United Australia’s Clive Palmer as he eyes an SA Senate spot.

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Blowing into town and telling voters they live in “backwater” isn’t a classic campaign, but drama is the game plan for United Australia’s Clive Palmer as he eyes an SA Senate spot.

The weight of public and media attention at every election falls heavily on increasingly presidential-style battles between the leaders of the two major parties, as they brawl over who earns the right to form a government by gaining the most Lower House seats.

It’s easy to forget until the last minute that you get a second vote in the Senate, which is only growing in power as traditional political loyalties fractures and upper houses across the country commonly shred or stymie the plans of elected governments.

As SA’s Lower House battle shapes as relatively benign, and only one seat is widely considered to be a red-hot contest, the Advertiser-YouGov Galaxy poll released this week suggests the Senate shapes as not only as more interesting horserace but also possibly the state’s most powerful contest.

Not only did Mr Palmer pull nine per cent of the primary support in a poll for the Lower House seat of Sturt, but backing for the Greens was slight enough to send a scare through their camp.

While one Lower House seat poll can’t make a reliable prediction about what will happen in the Senate, it points to some emerging trends that could end in seismic changes for SA politics.

It’s relatively safe to assume that the two major parties, Liberal and Labor, can lock in a pair of Senate seats each out of the six that are coming open.

Even in what should be a Liberal stronghold like Sturt, Labor is pulling a primary vote in the mid 30s, and has been a major beneficiary of Mr Xenophon’s troupe coming back to Earth.

In an SA-wide poll taken to mark the first birthday of Premier Steven Marshall’s Government in March had his State Government with 42 per cent of the primary vote, and his federal colleagues would only need to be somewhere in the same postcode on election day to lock down two Senate spots.

Some senior Liberals are even bullish about the prospect of adding a third.

With the major parties almost certainly taking four of six SA Senate seats, that leaves two for Mr Palmer and others to scrap over. Unpredictable at the best of times, this time the race is shaping as a virtual lottery.

Also in the mix are the Centre Alliance's Skye Kakoschke-Moore, who’s seeking to return after becoming a casualty of the dual citizenship shambles.

With the party not running a candidate in Sturt, it’s very hard to get a read on how they are tracking, other than to note a further slump in backing for SA Best in the year since the state election.

But Ms Kakoschke-Moore’s own actions this week suggests that the party rebrand, which dumped Mr Xenophon’s name in preference for a moniker that could suggests anything from a defence company to a homeless charity, isn’t going as was hoped.

Taking to social media, she’s sought to explain to people what happened to the Nick Xenophon Team and that the Centre Alliance is its “new name”.

If people clearly don’t even know what you are, getting a vote is tough.

Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young has come close to losing her spot before and appears worried again.

The Greens have historically struggled in SA, compared to other states.

An older population, and success of Mr Xenophon as a one-size fits all place to put a protest vote, have combined to make their life precarious.

But the times could suit them.

With trust in the two major parties somewhere near an all-time low, watchdog parties have a good shot.

And the Greens, commonly panned as “extreme”, have focused their key campaign messages on the relatively mainstream SA messages of saving the River Murray and stopping plans to drill for oil in The Bight.

If they do fall short, Labor could be the biggest beneficiary as preferences transfer over and make a third spot more likely.

One Nation’s hopes also can’t be discounted.

While they have no significant organisation or record of success in SA, they appeal to a similar demographic that made up Mr Xenophon’s most reliable supporters — voters who are mostly older and often very angry.

The Conservatives appear lost in the wash. Not mainstream enough for Liberal voters, and not outlandish enough to get the same sort of free media coverage that One Nation enjoys, they’ve become victims of a classic wedge move.

And that hints at the perverted brilliance of Mr Palmer’s campaign to date.

There remains a group in SA, of anywhere up to about a third of the population, who are actively looking for a home outside the big two.

They’ve flirted with and fluttered between Mr Xenophon’s operations and others like Family First, the Conservatives, Greens and One Nation.

What unites them is a disengagement with the way politics works. Many will barely even think about voting except when forced to every few years.

Through sheer weight of money and force of personality, Mr Palmer has made sure that his name is the first one to the top of mind when people who would rather not be there are standing in the ballot box in a fortnight’s time.