Dean Jaensch: The Xenophon position is yet to be declared so there are even more election unknowns
IT’S a three-way fight the likes of which we haven’t seen in the 80 years since the Liberal v Labor battle began. It’s unique. It’s fascinating and anything could happen, writes Dean Jaensch.
- Xenophon’s popularity poised to create a seismic shift
- Matt Deighton: March election will define the state we want to live in
- Nick Xenophon reveals SA Best candidates in five seats
- State Opposition releases first ‘make SA strong’ election ad
WELCOME to what has become a unique and fascinating South Australia state election.
It is unique because since the two-party system, Liberal versus Labor, gelled 80 years ago, we have never had a real three-party contest. The most recent Newspoll had the Nick Xenophon’s SA Best team on 30 per cent, Liberals 29 per cent and Labor 27 per cent.
The nearest to this situation occurred in 1938, when 15 of the 39 seats in the House of Assembly were won by independents. They contemplated acting together to form a minority independent government, but wisely decided to use their numbers to back a Liberal and Country League government. This ushered in the record-setting administration of Tom Playford and solid post-war economic growth.
If Nick Xenophon maintains his popularity and his team stays solid, Labor and the Liberals may both be in deep trouble. Of the 12 Xenophon candidates announced so far, nine are challenging Liberal-held seats, of which four, including ex-Liberal Martin Hamilton-Smith, are in the metropolitan area. These are winnable for SA Best.
The five rural seats are relatively safe for the Liberal Party, as Liberal support in regional areas is usually solid. SA Best’s three Labor-held targets in the city (so far) are marginal and eminently winnable.
If the Newspoll patterns of party support continue to the election, and I cannot see any reason why they will not, preferences will be crucial to decide many seats, and probably to decide who governs. If Xenophon follows his usual policy of not allocating preferences, recognising that voters can decide for themselves, then who knows what his supporters will do. There will also be fundamental decisions for the Labor and Liberal parties.
To defend themselves against Xenophon’s team, they will have to consider favouring each other in preference recommendations. That will cause severe angst among many committed party supporters.
Of course, voters need to keep in mind that they do not have to blindly follow how-to-vote cards; they own the preferences, not the parties. It seems almost certain that there will be a hung parliament. So, who will become the government? Which parties would be willing to agree to a coalition with SA Best?
The Liberal Party has rejected any such agreement. The Labor Party has a long history of being more than willing to offer such agreements.
The Xenophon position is yet to be declared. So, even more unknowns. What fun we voters are having!
Usually by this stage of a campaign, I have some idea of how the result may finish up. This time, I have no idea at all. So, a very happy (and probably politically befuddled) New Year to us all.