Matt Deighton: March election will define the state we want to live in

DIRTY tricks will play a role in the elction but our focus will be on the policies and vision and, significantly, what it means to our grassroots communities, Advertiser editor Matt Deighton writes.

• Liberals pledge $150m in grants for regional South Australia
• Murray-Darling Basin Plan will lose SA critical water
• Xenophon reveals SA Best candidates in five seats
• Tesla battery sets record as coal plant fails

RIGHT now is the calm before the storm. It is the festive season, much of the state today goes on leave and our appetite for politics is outweighed by that for turkey, beer and Christmas pudding. Or perhaps even Berocca.

The major parties likely won’t blur the lines with serious policy announcements over what is traditionally a quiet news period as people take the opportunity to switch off from the 24/7 political news cycle.

But in just a few weeks, this will all change as South Australia braces for a landmark state election campaign, which will very much define the type of state we want to become.

There is much at stake and all parties are expected to play it hard. It will often be confronting. It may well get dirty. The Mediscare campaign which shifted the dial in favour of the ALP at the federal campaign will embolden all parties and their powerful supporters to run viral strategies short on fact and high on emotion. Already we have seen so-called robocalls targeting Nick Xenophon, which are very much playing the man and not the ball. Perception will matter much more than facts.

Each of the major players face significant challenges and even seasoned observers, on both sides, roll their eyes and shrug their shoulders when trying to make an early prediction. Labor has been in power for 16 years and will face inevitable pressure about the need and mood change. It has faced a difficult few months; the shelving of the bank tax, a misstep on Gonski funding, ongoing concerns about health services and the TAFE SA debacle have all compounded to paint a picture of a government with its back very much against the wall.

But is also has had some strong moments. The Royal Commission into the Murray-Darling Basin is an important move to protect our rural and regional interests (and water security) and the strong links forged with China should ensure a long and lasting impact.

Premier Jay Weatherill, Opposition leader Steven Marshall and SA Best leader Nick Xenophon addresses questions at the AMA Political Leaders Breakfast. Picture: Mark Brake

But it cannot afford another TAFE style disaster; the shadow of which will loom large over the election. And it needs to ensure a quick and meaningful resolution.

Much rides on its platform of energy security. It is now running hard on the line of energy issues being resolved and confidence being restored. And of course the Elon Musk deal has generated national and international headlines.

But this will all be put to the test over a long, hot summer and any shortfalls in the public promise will come back to bite it - hard.

Meanwhile, Labor will continue to campaign against key deficiencies it sees in the Liberal team and even his harshest opponents won’t ever underestimate the capacity of Jay Weatherill to defy the odds. In light of all the issues just mentioned and the fact the state was the casualty of a major blackout, the Liberals would have felt relatively comfortable going into next March, until Mr Xenophon decided to throw the world upside down.

Now they face a very different challenge. The Libs would have run directly on a government they say has butchered energy policy and lumped South Australians with higher energy bills at a time when it couldn’t even guarantee keeping the lights on.

They would have targeted key areas of business and consumer confidence and concerns about economic growth. The Liberals will still target these areas but has the added distraction of the state’s most popular politician running candidates against them in key Liberal seats.

This may change in the New Year as the SA Best portfolio expands - Xenophon has pledged to run about 20 candidates - but, as it stands at this moment, despite the announcement of five more candidates and the unambiguous targeting of Transport Minister Stephen Mullighan, the Libs have the most to lose.

Their challenge now leading up to March is to craft a compelling vision for the future of energy, health, jobs and education. They will need policies which are well thought through, accountable and provide a key point of difference to Labor.

The Libs will say we should be doing much, much better as a state, but must outline how this can be achieved. They will need to reinforce the calibre of their team. In this space they, too, cannot afford any missteps.

And the Libs will need to mobilise their significant supporter groups in business, development and property to craft a compelling narrative as to what a Liberal Government will mean for confidence and economic growth and how that will filter through to core community services.

They realise this is simply an election they cannot afford to lose. If the Liberals cannot bring it home in this climate, the fallout for the party will be disastrous and far-reaching.

The key to this whole scenario is obviously Mr Xenophon and his pack of candidates. Will he win half a swag of seats or a mere handful - or pull a One Nation in Queensland and fizz out when it really matters?

Labor MP Stephen Mulligan. Picture: Roy VanDerVegt

Mr Xenophon is a popular and formidable politician and will be buoyed by this week’s Newspoll which showed both his party and his own popularity eclipsing the majors.

But his challenge is to move beyond dart throwing and media stunts and craft accountable policies that stand up to scrutiny. Given his popularity and likely influence in March, his policies need to carry major party weight. He has promised to announce these is the New Year.

And so he must. This will be his ultimate test - a shift from rhetoric to reality. And he needs to build a decent team. This is an ongoing challenge for the small parties; to attract strong and capable candidates (and then not implode after 12 months).

What cannot be denied is that he has completely transformed the whole landscape of this contest and how he and his party perform will ultimately decide the outcome.

The Advertiser would like to see the election as a genuine contest of ideas. Dirty tricks will play a role but our focus will be on the policies and vision and, significantly, what it means to our grassroots communities.

This will be an election won in the streets and neighbourhoods of our cities and towns and the party which best connects with these needs, aspirations and desires - and show genuine leadership - is the one which will have earned the right to govern.

It will be won by the party which can construct the most compelling narrative for the future of our energy supply, our health and education systems, our capacity to grow the economy and create jobs and to rebuild confidence.

Have a safe, merry and restful Christmas.

MATT DEIGHTON IS EDITOR OF THE ADVERTISER. THIS IS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLUMNS FROM PROMINENT SOUTH AUSTRALIANS ABOUT THE CHALLENGES FACING THE STATE IN 2018