Daniel Wills: Political free passes for PM, Premier running out
The public gave Australia’s leaders a lot of latitude to fight the coronavirus pandemic but now, with a growing feeling the battle is won, real world politics awaits, writes Daniel Wills.
Opinion
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As a blurry figure of life as normal starts to take shape on the horizon, so too does a return to the rough-and-tumble type of politics that characterised life before lockdown.
This was the week where the consensus of national Cabinet started to fray and South Australia began to openly, if gently, question the wisdom of those who’ve led this crisis so well so far and whether they’re doing enough to crank up the economy and jobs.
From frustrated business owners to the faithful in churches, and people just trying to find their way around on public transport, many are now feeling they have licence to return to the old and cherished mode of privately and publicly asking if Premier Steven Marshall and the State Government are in fact getting an impossible balance exactly right.
Against our nature, SA embraced a high level of government paternalism once the microscopic terror of COVID-19 arrived in February.
Overwhelmed and underprepared, almost everyone looked to Mr Marshall and Prime Minister Scott Morrison for direction and instruction. We hoped at least they might know what the hell was going on, and gave them all the backing and latitude needed to stop the loss of an untold number of vulnerable lives.
Few could have thought that Australians would ever accept such bans on travel, trade, Friday knock-off beers, footy and even the right to collective worship with such little fight.
When Liberal leaders went off brand with debt-driven and deficit-exploding spending that in normal times would make even a Keynesian wince, there was a brief shrug of shoulders. We’re all hypocrites now.
But after that incredible period of “we’re all in this together”, the pendulum is starting drift back to a more traditional “what’s in it for me?”
State premiers, who had put aside the usual games of state-of-origin sledging followed by a winner-take-all dash towards the closest bucket of money, are now openly chipping each other about how fast they can lift restrictions and open borders.
While everyone in SA prefaces their critiques with full respect for the success Mr Marshall and chief health officer Nicola Spurrier have had in slowing and stopping local infections, there’s a clamour to get on top of their list for special treatment as restrictions ease, and increasingly sharp challenges on how they are making those very tough decisions.
This week’s announcement on easing restrictions and bringing forward phase two of lifting to the start of the June 5 long weekend was pitched as a “baby step” by a cautious Mr Marshall, who’s still trying to moderate expectations and hold public patience amid fears of a second wave such as that seen in Singapore. But a large section of the public appears to see that battle as already having been won, and wants to move on. While SA is still leading in areas such as schools and regional travel, there’s no doubt that it is slower than others states on things like pubs.
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And some decisions are stretching common sense, with inadequate explanation of the reasoning behind them. For instance, a cafe or restaurant in SA is now able to have both outdoor and indoor dining, but a place such as Big Shed on Old Port Rd or the famed Magill Estate can’t because they tick slightly different boxes on their licensing forms.
Only time will be able to truly tell if the right calls are being made today. Neither the number of new coronavirus cases that will come from easing restrictions, nor the jobs lost by keeping them on longer than needed, can be perfectly predicted.
Mr Marshall seems certain that he’s on solid ground by following health and other expert advice.
It’s hard to fault that plan so far.
And the political cycle will allow for both Mr Marshall and Mr Morrison to be judged when all the information is in. Mr Marshall’s day is set for March 2022. Mr Morrison is due to face re-election within a few months either side.
At that point, especially given the speed at which opinion is moving past the fear of a health catastrophe, the shape of a still-recovering economy is likely to be the key issue. Historically, it almost always is.
Voters will give governments a pass for the things they can’t control, such as a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic that forced the initial lockdowns, but be less forgiving if the path out is poorly marked.
These next few weeks will be politically critical, casting long shadows as fast decisions must be made with limited information and no playbook.
Mr Morrison and Mr Marshall can cement their political gains, or cede much of them. And they do it in a more traditionally factious environment, where support isn’t freely granted.