Christopher Pyne: Labor has been good at messaging but the message is faulty

The Labor Party is to be commended for its discipline in hammering home its message of a health system in crisis, but is it actually true, asks Christopher Pyne.

When I was a student debater, the adjudicator might sometimes say that the two teams had such different definitions of the topic that like two train tracks the arguments never met. It made for a dull debate. In fact, sometimes no debate at all.

It was hard in those circumstances to decide a winner based on the three principles of matter, manner and method. Usually, it would come down to the presentation skills of each participant.

The South Australian election is running on separate rail tracks two weeks out from polling day.

The Liberals are talking about the economy. Labor talks solely about health.

Premier Steven Marshall (L) campaigning on the economy with Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg. Picture: Dean Martin

For Labor’s campaign to work, voters need to be convinced that South Australia is in the grip of a health crisis. That’s what the nurses federation, the ambulance officers union and the public service union would have us believe.

But is the health system in crisis?

When The Economist magazine rated Adelaide the most liveable city in Australia and the third most liveable city in the world only a short time ago, they marked our health system 100 out of a possible 100. That doesn’t suggest an impartial observer believed the health system is in crisis.

When the Marshall Government started to open up the state to interstate and overseas travellers before Christmas last year and the Omicron variant of Covid-19 crept in, the unions and their supporters said that the hospital system would struggle to cope. In fact, it coped very well. It didn’t collapse. South Australia was relatively unscathed compared to Sydney, Melbourne and overseas.

Labor Leader Peter Malinauskas is tring to convince people that SA’s health system is in crisis. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Naomi Jellicoe

So Labor has to convince voters of something that isn’t true – that the health system is a disaster zone and only they can be trusted to fix it.

They have been laser-like in their focus on health.

If Labor wins it will be due to this focus and the campaign convincing enough people that what they are saying is true.

On the other hand, the Liberals want the election to revolve around the economy.

What’s their pitch?

Unemployment is the lowest it has been in decades. While the highest in the land, unemployment nationally is at record low levels.

Growth is the highest of any state in Australia. At 3.9 per cent it is well above the target set by Premier Steven Marshall four years ago when he was elected.

SA job seekers in the queue for an interview at Boost Juice bar in Adelaide

However, growth in South Australia has been so far below the national average for so long, that we need to be outstripping expectations if we are to make up for lost time.

For this first time that I can remember, SA is experiencing net positive migration to the state rather than out of it, especially among young people.

If the trend continues, our population will grow, not decline.

We might even get a seat or two back at the national level in the House of Representatives and increase our influence in Canberra as a result.

That would be a nice change.

If the Liberals can focus voters’ minds on the economy and convince them by election day that Labor will put these gains at risk, the Marshall Government will be returned.

For both sides, the election hangs in the balance.

Former Liberal Premier John Olsen looked set to win the 1997 election until very late in the campaign. Picture: AAP Image

Two weeks is a long time in politics. I remember in 1997, the Olsen Government looked set to be a shoo-in until the Leaders debate, five days out from election day. Then Leader of the Opposition, Mike Rann, made a good account of himself. The government of Premier John Olsen, went into minority, from a position four years earlier, when Dean Brown had won the biggest majority in SA history.

If the arguments of both sides remain like two train tracks and never cross, the outcome may well be determined by the performance of each participant. By that, I don’t mean Mr Marshall and Opposition leader Peter Malinauskas. I mean the incumbents and candidates in each seat. Without a clear clash of ideas, the voters may look to their local offerings to decide if, for example, a Paula Leuthen in King deserves re-election; whether it’s time to say farewell to a Geoff Brock in Stuart; or if Sam Duluk in Waite has done enough time in purgatory.

Voters in Waite must decide if Sam Duluk has served his penance. Picture: NCA NewsWire / David Mariuz

It will make for an interesting election night and probably beyond. Because of Covid-19, many people are choosing to vote by postal ballot. Every aged care resident is voting by postal ballot as the SA Electoral Commission is not visiting aged care facilities in the same way as they have in the past.

Many close results will not be known on election night. If it’s a close election, we will probably not know the outcome for days.

If it’s a hung parliament – neither side having a majority in their own right, the horse trading between re-elected independents and party leaders could take even longer.

So focus people – it’s happening in 12 days.